Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#501

Post by Robotbeat » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:47 PM UTC

shaklee3 wrote: post #494

dragontamer wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: Here's my issue with that. The on-chip SRAM is only 32MB, and the RAM is LPDDR4 rated at only 68GB/s. Assuming a dot-product (multiply +…

Nvidia already responded: ""Tesla was inaccurate in comparing its Full Self Driving computer at 144 TOPS of processing with Nvidia Drive Xavier at 21 TOPS," a spokesman said in an email. "The correct comparison would have been against Nvidia's full self-driving computer, Nvidia Drive AGX Pegasus, which delivers 320 TOPS for AI perception, localization and path planning." The statement also contends that "while Xavier…

From what I understand, Pegasus consumes about 500Watts, compared to under 100 Watts for Tesla's FSD computer. Elon in particular emphasized the performance per watt (as it's always possible to cram more chips to increase performance if you ignore cost and power consumption).

The comparison made in the video: 500Watts for an hour consumes about 2-3 miles of range. In a city in slow traffic, going 12mph, that's a significant range reduction. So you might have a 10% improvement in range for the Tesla ASIC in low speed conditions.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#502

Post by Robotbeat » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 3:51 PM UTC

Traster wrote: post #482

antpls wrote: post #461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I were a billionaire and I wanted to change the world, I would put pressure on existing companies by creating a competing company and pretending extraordinary achievements. Truth or not, failure or not, Musk moves forward the hopes and expectations, and I'm thankful just for that. I don't see how we can blame him for taking position

What you're describing is securities fraud.

Saying what your future goals are, while clearly and repeatedly reminding people of your past history of being late on those goals, is the opposite of fraud.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#503

Post by dforrestwilson » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 4:12 PM UTC

jerska wrote: post #484

dforrestwilson wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmmm so then why is Tesla ranked last for autonomous driving by third party researchers? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiR... And Elon has a long history of making false claims about Tesla’s progress. For example in 2015 and 2016 he claimed that Teslas would be fully self-driving by 2018. So why shouldn’t we be skeptical? https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/teslas-self-driving-str...

The first article you link to sources another article as its source, which itself calls bullshit on the ranking. Your link: > According to Electrek, Tesla trails behind other companies in terms of autonomous driving tech based on a list created by Navigant Research, an independent research firm. Electrek’s article: > Electrek’s Take > I think Navigant’s autonomous leaderboard is ridiculous. There are way too many bra…

What is your point?

Electrek is not exactly unbiased. It's literally called EV and Tesla news. Fanboi site's opinion should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

Here's the Navigant executive summary directly: https://www.navigantresearch.com/reports/navigant-research-l...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#504

Post by dwighttk » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 4:46 PM UTC

mynameisvlad wrote: post #108

dwighttk wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know the context for this, but one appendix isn't bad... appendicitis is bad.

He means the appendices in a book.

I just watched the 5minute distillation and I’m pretty sure he was talking about the organ.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#505

Post by Marsymars » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 4:59 PM UTC

zaroth wrote: post #438

rootusrootus wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did a road trip this weekend and used autopilot for more than 400 miles on a brand new P3D (with the FSD option, limited though it is right now). Mostly freeway, some rural roads. Here are my observations, I assume it's pretty typical but obviously all I have is anecdata. Lane following works effectively, but it wanders a bit. Mostly not enough to be bothersome, though sometimes it will hug one side or the other cl…

Thank you for taking the time to write up such a nice trip report! Some of your experiences are similar to mine. I think you have seen the improved merge handling, in prior versions zipper merging in heavy traffic had me disengaging due to getting too close to the merging car coming into my lane. I have also experienced the unexpected brake pulse during adaptive cruise on a couple occasions and would really like to h…

> I love the lack of a model year, they are always refining and enhancing the base hardware.

If I have a list of a half-dozen refinements I want which weren't included in the car at launch, how can I tell if a given used car for sale has them? Is there any type of master list of features/changes/dates?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#506

Post by bogomipz » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 5:12 PM UTC

gjm11 wrote: post #399

bogomipz wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"And even that fails at a far higher rate than we want self driving cars to be." Thanks, but did you mean to say that people fail at a far lower rate that we want self driving cars to have? Maybe I misunderstood your point?

I'm not threeseed, but I'm pretty sure they meant what they said. Expanded version of the argument: "Karpathy says 'people drive vision-only' and apparently intends that to convince us that vision-only is good enough . But (1) those people driving vision-only are using human brains , whose abilities we have not yet come close to duplicating, and (2) even with the astonishing abilities of the human brain, those people…

Thanks for expanding and clarifying the argument, this makes sense. Cheers.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#507

Post by username223 » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 5:31 PM UTC

xkcd-sucks wrote: post #398

monk_e_boy wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> require A LOT of training data from all angles Also, we learn things outside of our cars. I ride a bike, this gives me insight into what bike riders will do on the road. I have kids, so I know a kid on the pavement will be more risky / unpredictable than an adult. I drove down a single track road today and met another car coming towards me. We stopped, then he started to reverse, there was a passing place behind hi…

Hmm maybe the problem is actually interacting with humans naturally, on the road, so self-driving is really human-style general AI

This is why I think the solution will be something like "SDV lanes" -- separate lanes for robots on the highway, like bus lanes. Current roads are designed for humans communicating with each other, and if we wait for general AI to implement self-driving cars, we'll be waiting a long time.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#508

Post by invisible » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 5:36 PM UTC

navigatesol wrote: post #213

gonehome wrote: post #88

Interesting pieces: - First principles hardware design of focused self driving computer (many times better than any competing existing hardware). Already shipping in all newly produced cars. Currently working on next gen that will be 3x better to ship in a couple years. - Lidar is an unnecessary mistake that competitors are making that won't succeed (too expensive, need too many, unnecessary). - Real world fleet test…

> many times better than any competing existing hardware Except that it isn't. NVIDA's Drive AGX Pegasus delivers 320 TOPS: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-tesla-inaccura... Of course, nobody inside the Musk Reality Distortion Field actually cares about this.

Not that I'm confident about either side of this, but the TOPS isn't the only important factor here. It's also the efficiency. If Tesla's CPU can do more ops/watt, then it's more ideal for the conditions that Tesla needs the CPU to fulfill. On top of that, I have no idea what "320 TOPS" means in the context of the specific workload Tesla has. Will they _actually_ get 320 TOPS?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#509

Post by je42 » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 5:37 PM UTC

derpherp wrote: post #381

natch wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow you are commenting, but you didn’t watch the event I guess because that’s not what Musk said.

I'm sorry you feel that way. I indeed watched the entire stream and not once do I recall Musk mentioning sensor fusion. Instead, he just focussed on the drawbacks that LIDAR had, which can be corrected if feeds from LIDAR and camera were to be combined. This is why every other AV company uses sensor fusion. No one uses LIDAR just by itself and Tesla should not use vision just by itself.

i guess the main question is why humans can do it without lidar ? or the other way put: why would a lidar bridge the gap between a current vision-based system and human level performance ?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#510

Post by lnanek2 » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 5:38 PM UTC

RivieraKid wrote: post #270

I watch Tesla fairly closely from both the bull and bear sides. In short, I don't believe Tesla is anywhere close to Waymo. They won't achieve FSD in 2020. It's important to see this event in the context of their significant demand and cash problems. Even enthusiastic Tesla investors like Galileo Russell suggested that Tesla is in a cash crunch and should raise money. Which hints at the main mystery about Tesla, why…

Tesla needs to use Lidars too and frequently crashes into things Lidars would save them from (white trucks that loook like the sky, etc.). Unfortunately, Tesla promised that the cars they were shipping had all the equipment needed for self driving, so they can't say that publicly. Lidars would also bump up their cost by thousands, resulting in fewer sales.