Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#481

Post by tim333 » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 9:28 AM UTC

Some video of demo rides from someone who was at the day:

Lane change on crowded freeway: https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120472369762590722 - It manages it if not quite as smooth as a human.

Summon in parking lot: https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120446405410205701 likewise.

There's also an official Tesla sped up demo vid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo - hard to tell really.

Same video slowed with the display magnified and some Reddit discussion https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/bgb9or/fsd_dem...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#482

Post by Traster » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 9:33 AM UTC

antpls wrote: post #461

RivieraKid wrote: post #270

I watch Tesla fairly closely from both the bull and bear sides. In short, I don't believe Tesla is anywhere close to Waymo. They won't achieve FSD in 2020. It's important to see this event in the context of their significant demand and cash problems. Even enthusiastic Tesla investors like Galileo Russell suggested that Tesla is in a cash crunch and should raise money. Which hints at the main mystery about Tesla, why…

If I were a billionaire and I wanted to change the world, I would put pressure on existing companies by creating a competing company and pretending extraordinary achievements. Truth or not, failure or not, Musk moves forward the hopes and expectations, and I'm thankful just for that. I don't see how we can blame him for taking position

What you're describing is securities fraud.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#483

Post by Traster » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 9:36 AM UTC

andr wrote: post #49

To summarize, it appears that their new chips can do 96x96 dot product in a single cycle (multiplying neural network weights by values), and have hardware for activations (ReLU, softmax, tanh) and pooling (as in convolutional neural networks). This results in a crazy 144 trillions ops/second. How does this compare to TPUs and the Neural Engine in iPhone CPUs?

Can they actually do a 96x96 dot product in a single cycle? My understanding was that they can do 1 96x96 dot product per cycle - that is to say that their throughput is a 96x96 dot product but it'll be heavily pipelined.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#484

Post by jerska » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 9:53 AM UTC

dforrestwilson wrote: post #15

netinstructions wrote: post #9

While you're waiting for the main event to start, here are some recent interviews with Elon about self-driving cars. He's very confident. "To me right now, this seems 'game, set, and match,'" Musk said. "I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." I am eager to see what they unveil today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/e…

Hmmm so then why is Tesla ranked last for autonomous driving by third party researchers? https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiR... And Elon has a long history of making false claims about Tesla’s progress. For example in 2015 and 2016 he claimed that Teslas would be fully self-driving by 2018. So why shouldn’t we be skeptical? https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/teslas-self-driving-str...

The first article you link to sources another article as its source, which itself calls bullshit on the ranking.

Your link:

> According to Electrek, Tesla trails behind other companies in terms of autonomous driving tech based on a list created by Navigant Research, an independent research firm.

Electrek’s article:

> Electrek’s Take

> I think Navigant’s autonomous leaderboard is ridiculous. There are way too many brands that keep most of their development under wraps, which makes it hard to evaluate them and therefore, it gives very little value to a leaderboard like this in my opinion.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#485

Post by tigershark » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 11:07 AM UTC

naikrovek wrote: post #376

ajross wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Humans have far higher resolution sensors This is really not true. The phone in your pocket is just plain better. More total pixels per unit area, much greater dynamic range, able to sample over time periods an order of magnitude faster. The reason your vision seems better is because your brain is amazingly good at synthesizing a picture of the world around you. But all that data (the sphere around you is something…

I agree that, ultimately, vision and some IMUs will be all that's needed for an as-perfect-as-possible self-driving cars. Your statement on phone cameras being better than the human eye isn't true today, though. The human eye has FAR better dynamic range than any camera built to date, at any price point. This matters a great deal on sunny, cloudless days in a city with tall buildings casting dark shadows, for example…

It’s absolutely false. The eye simulates the dynamic range by continuously changing the pupil size. If you take a camera with a lens that can go from f/1.4 to f/32 you have a much much bigger dynamic range counting that you can also modify the exposure time. Your comparison between the eye with his changing pupil size and a single image taken at a fixed aperture value and a fixed exposure is totally incorrect.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#486

Post by tigershark » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 11:43 AM UTC

Traster wrote: post #125

I'm sorry but I'm finding it really difficult to watch this and match up what the engineer is saying to what Elon Musk is saying. For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: "At firs…

Apparently it’s actually less than half the performance of Nvidia solution: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-tesla-inaccura...

https://www.nvidia.com/en-gb/self-driving-cars/drive-platfor...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#487

Post by agent008t » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 12:05 PM UTC

jgibson wrote: post #238

gambiting wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can sort of understand the software differentiation - I have no issue with Windows Home and Pro editions having different price points even thought the code on the disc is identical for instance(maybe that's hypocritical of me?). But I do have an issue with paying for hardware(heated seats in this case) and that hardware being disabled until a payment is made. I don't know, it just feels different.

Think about it from a supply/configuration/logistics point of view. It might be cheaper to make 500k cars with 100% heated seats rather than 250k w/ heated and 250k w/o heated. Even if BOM cost is lower, the additional complexity due to the logistics and supply chain probably means it's more expensive to have both variants in production. That way people who want heated seats are subsidising the lower overall cost for…

It makes sense economically, but still feels paradoxical. A similar example would be building houses with 3 bedrooms, where 2 bedrooms remain locked and inaccessible unless you pay for them. So a significant proportion of the population ends up living in 1-bed houses even though there is no scarcity of resource.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#488

Post by dagw » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 12:09 PM UTC

monk_e_boy wrote: post #382

alyx wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good overview, I share your opinion. Tesla is betting BIG on NNs. In the presentation they say that we have NNs in our brain. Which is why we can look at one photo of a dog, and distill enough identifying information in order to spot the breed from then on. Training sample of 1. Curiously though, they than say that NNs don't work like our brains do, and require A LOT of training data from all angles, etc. Training sa…

> require A LOT of training data from all angles Also, we learn things outside of our cars. I ride a bike, this gives me insight into what bike riders will do on the road. I have kids, so I know a kid on the pavement will be more risky / unpredictable than an adult. I drove down a single track road today and met another car coming towards me. We stopped, then he started to reverse, there was a passing place behind hi…

It would be interesting to see if kids who spent a lot of time riding bikes or even just spent a lot of time in cars can learn how to drive well quicker than other kids.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#489

Post by tigershark » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 12:51 PM UTC

vasilipupkin wrote: post #86

isoprophlex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"LIDAR is a fool's errand. Everyone relying on LIDAR is doomed." edit: beat me to it

it snowed a few weekends ago in Chicago, my autopilot turned off because snow covered up the cameras. So I am not buying all this "self driving with no lidar" brouhaha

Lidar is useless when snowing

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#490

Post by ginko » Tue, Apr 23, 2019, 1:06 PM UTC

lutorm wrote: post #419

grecy wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's related to who Musk is, and the kinds of things he wants to achieve. SpaceX isn't trying to just do what has always been done and just make it 5 or 10% cheaper. That's boring. SpaceX is completely turning the launch industry on it's head. Tesla is the same. Elon isn't interested in making "just" an electric car. He wants to change the world, and electric cars that drive themselves will do that. Can he do…

The purpose of Tesla is to save the world from global warming, though. I'm not sure self-driving is that relevant compared to the electric propulsion part.

If anything it'd be detrimental since it would allow more people to drive longer and more often.