Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#81

Post by VikingCoder » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:34 PM UTC

djtriptych wrote: post #59

VikingCoder wrote: post #51

Q: "What's the primary design objective of the next-gen chip?" Mumbled Answer: "Safety." ...doesn't that mean the current-gen chip... isn't as safe as you want?

I don't see this line of reasoning. To me "safer than humans" or "in the 90th percentile among drivers" is a fair go to market line. Optimally safe should still be the goal. That is, no human could have provided alternative input to the computer that would have created a safer outcome.

I think you just agreed with me. Please reconsider what I've said and what you've said.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#82

Post by dwighttk » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:34 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #34

cflewis wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My guess is he means "on the highway". The scary bits of self-driving is person detection, crossing detection, roadwork detection, cyclist detection (e.g. coming up on the right when you are trying to make a right turn). The Waymo end-game that I heard was "able to go through a drive-thru". I highly doubt Tesla is anywhere near that point.

> through a drive-thru The kind of drive-thru that Tesla is currently associated with involves semis rather than fast food and it would be really nice to hear that they've at least licked that particular bug (and for good, this time).

what does "for good, this time" even mean with their regression issue?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#83

Post by pixelpp » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:36 PM UTC

2bitencryption wrote: post #70

isoprophlex wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

absolutely glorious, they're taking questions. first question: can you use anything else besides ReLU activations in your neural net engine? this is wonderful

what a funny question. "you say you can put bananas in your smoothie. just a thought, but perhaps, might I ask, do you have the capability to put strawberries as well, or are we not there yet?"

haha

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#84

Post by cmsonger » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:38 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #69

cmsonger wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems like they are almost betting the company on FSD. IMO they don't have any choice. The more and longer they operate like a car company shipping bigger and bigger volumes, the more their financials will be undeniably trend towards those of the existing car companies and the more their existing market valuation will be hard to justify. They need something like this to not get traded at traditional car industry…

If you just measure based on Tesla's last two quarters, their P/E is just 28. That's high for a car company but pretty low for tech. Self-driving is not necessary to maintain that valuation, only continued growth of the electric car market in general.

> That's high for a car company but pretty low for tech.

Yes! Totally agree.

> Self-driving is not necessary to maintain that valuation, only continued growth of the electric car market in general.

Disagree. The key properties of the car business are high capital costs and high variable costs and not huge margins. The key property of the tech business is low variable cost and often low capital costs (but not always) and high margins.

There's nothing "tech" about building electric cars vs. normal cars and 10 years from now the margins and capital expenses of electric car business will be like the existing ICE car business.

So this is Tesla saying: "Yeah, our financials are starting to look like a normal car company, but we've got this thing that you should keep value us even more like a tech company than you do today."

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#85

Post by Traster » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:38 PM UTC

ham_sandwich wrote: post #28

It seems like Tesla is at a pivotal moment. On one hand there are hyper-bulls who claim Tesla is a $4000 stock and the future of transportation. On the other, hyper-bears claim the equity should trade around $0-$10. There seems to be no middle ground. It seems like they are almost betting the company on FSD. I don’t think FSD is really even close to a possibility over the next 5-10yrs. I hope I’m wrong, but if I’m ri…

>On one hand there are hyper-bulls who claim Tesla is a $4000 stock and the future of transportation. On the other, hyper-bears claim the equity should trade around $0-$10. There seems to be no middle ground.

Well the middle ground is the actual stock market where Tesla is trading around $265.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#86

Post by vasilipupkin » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:40 PM UTC

isoprophlex wrote: post #46

Animats wrote: post #35

So far, half an hour from the head of IC design. Nice special purpose IC and board. Dual everything for redundancy. Wide special purpose neural net evaluation. 100 watts for the compute system. Code signing. Shipping in new Model 3 cars since last 10 days. "All we need to do is improve the software" - Musk [12:07 PDT] LIDAR "unnecessary" - Musk [12:13 PDT] Computer vision guy is now speaking. Recognizes "driveable sp…

"LIDAR is a fool's errand. Everyone relying on LIDAR is doomed." edit: beat me to it

it snowed a few weekends ago in Chicago, my autopilot turned off because snow covered up the cameras. So I am not buying all this "self driving with no lidar" brouhaha

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#87

Post by iandanforth » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:41 PM UTC

Tesla: "We have a global network of cameras that can be queried to find anything on or near roads and send back photos of it."

Every law enforcement entity on the planet: drool

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#88

Post by gonehome » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:43 PM UTC

Interesting pieces:

- First principles hardware design of focused self driving computer (many times better than any competing existing hardware). Already shipping in all newly produced cars. Currently working on next gen that will be 3x better to ship in a couple years.

- Lidar is an unnecessary mistake that competitors are making that won't succeed (too expensive, need too many, unnecessary).

- Real world fleet testing is critical to success, simulations are not good enough since there are too many unknown unknowns in the real world. Tesla uses simulations too, but nobody else comes close on real world fleet testing.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#89

Post by dominotw » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:43 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #41

The thing I don't get about Tesla is why they keep heaping more on their plate rather than just (for large values of just) re-doing the motive power bit. That alone is a massive challenge and it is not something they've licked at economies of scale that allow a $10K vehicle to be brought to market, which is what it will take to really make this a success. Every extra they tack on to the base product is one they will…

> once cracked be an instant commodity

Can't they patent their breakthroughs? How is this different than pharma breakthroughs?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#90

Post by jacquesm » Mon, Apr 22, 2019, 7:44 PM UTC

dwighttk wrote: post #82

jacquesm wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> through a drive-thru The kind of drive-thru that Tesla is currently associated with involves semis rather than fast food and it would be really nice to hear that they've at least licked that particular bug (and for good, this time).

what does "for good, this time" even mean with their regression issue?

That was exactly the point, the fact that such a thing could happen, be fixed and then happens again in something mission critical is very scary.