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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#451

Post by unityByFreedom »

ehmish wrote: post #155
Traster wrote: post #125

I'm sorry but I'm finding it really difficult to watch this and match up what the engineer is saying to what Elon Musk is saying. For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: "At firs…

This doesn't seem wildly inconsistent with my understanding of Elon musk, in that he has a higher level of confidence of his understanding of the world than others would, and in a "you don't know what you don't know " way it seems he didn't know about custom how custom ASICs are much more efficient at specific tasks than a general purpose computer. Doesn't make him a bad person, and in fact something like that is exa…

Sorry, what? Is this an auto-generated comment?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#452

Post by [deleted] »

alyx wrote: post #375
sytelus wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Karpathy is great at presenting executive-101. However self-driving is much much more than image classification. You have a time component, you need to integrate information as it comes in to meaningful state (aka SLAM) and make sequential decisions that has potential to kill people. This is still unsolved research problem unlike punny ImageNet classification. Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about…

Good overview, I share your opinion. Tesla is betting BIG on NNs. In the presentation they say that we have NNs in our brain. Which is why we can look at one photo of a dog, and distill enough identifying information in order to spot the breed from then on. Training sample of 1. Curiously though, they than say that NNs don't work like our brains do, and require A LOT of training data from all angles, etc. Training sa…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#453

Post by naikrovek »

ajross wrote: post #449
naikrovek wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dynamic range is the ability to see things in both direct sunlight AND in dark shadows at the same time. You need to be able to see pedestrians that are both directly lit by the sun and in the darkest shadows in the same frame of video. No long exposures, no multiple exposures with varying exposure -- a single frame. I don't know of any 24-32-bit per channel sensors, and that's what you'd need. We agree on vision pro…

You're fooling yourself if you think your eyes can do that. They can't. More to the point, your brain is fooling you , by synthesizing a perception of a reality, the same way it does to make you think the stuff in your peripheral vision is as sharp as the things in the middle. Vertebrate eyes don't have 24 bits of sensitivity, that's just insane. Rod cells are neurons, they either fire or they don't, can fire at most…

You're correct that the brain fills in a lot that isn't there, making you think your vision is a lot better than it is. It doesn't change much, though, mostly it fills in gaps.

10Hz? Simply not true. Fighter pilots can identify aircraft shown on a screen for 1/250th of one second. Regular schmoes can see the difference between 30Hz and 60Hz video easily.

I am not arguing about pixel count of a camera vs the center of vision of human eyes.

I'm saying that... Nevermind. I've already said it several times and apparently you have a PhD in all things vision.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#454

Post by Animats »

pwinnski wrote: post #179
oska wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we implemented simple physical solutions such as wipers and window heaters in cars to maintain vision for drivers. What we didn't do was implement lidar to aid human drivers. Simple physical solutions are available if necessary for the cameras too. I don't have a tesla so I don't know what measures they use to keep the cameras clean but I'm sure they've thought about it and designed for it.

Great-grandparent comment suggests that they did not, in fact, design for it. Assuming the best is nice when you have no information, but we have information.

It's not that hard.

In our 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge vehicle, we had a system to clean the camera and LIDAR. It used a spray nozzle, and alternated spraying windshield cleaner and air. This is a commercial truck accessory used on mining trucks.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#455

Post by breakyerself »

cjhopman wrote: post #443
outworlder wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If your job is to strategize for the entire company and you're busy learning the minutiae that you spend a lot of money for other people to worry about, maybe you need to consider using your time a little better This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing. And have been doing for a long time. If the CEO is not an engineer at heart, what are they? I seriously doubt Elon Musk has more engineering know…

> This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing. If your goal is to make money, I'd follow anyone but Tesla or SpaceX's example.

How is SpaceX a bad example? They've managed to undercut everyone in the space launch sector while bringing in a larger profit per launch.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#456

Post by jfoster »

rootusrootus wrote: post #214
sharadov wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.

If the current state of autopilot is even tangentially related to their progress on full self-driving, then it's a lot more than a few years away.

Which car available for purchase would you recommend looking at for something closer to full self-driving?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#457

Post by vkou »

dougmwne wrote: post #233
gamblor956 wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... It's also pretty clear based on the selective presentation of data that they're even further behind Waymo than everyone thought. This was the time to actually prove that their ahead, and all they could give was more of Elon's hot air. At the end Elon said autonomy is basically their entire expense sheet! Must have missed that part, but if he actually…

I took it as weasel words. The robotaxi business will be the vertically integrated capstone of everything Tesla does, therefore 100% of their expenditures are building towards the robotaxi.

And I was told for years by HN that actually, Tesla is a battery company.

Now it's a robotaxi company? What is it going to be next year, a debt restructuring company?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#458

Post by shafyy »

rohit2412 wrote: post #293
SheinhardtWigCo wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

I'm getting tired of saying this. Why is it one or the other? Why only a human driver or a robot driver? Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds? If the human falls asleep, the robot can do trivial driving, and the human still makes the more difficult driving decisions. The question isn't if robot car is better than an average car being driven by a hu…

Watch Lex Fridman's interview with Musk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI), where they discuss exactly this topic.

Basically, Musk's point is that if self-driving cars are statistically safer than humans, then allowing humans to drive will make cars less safe again.

Furthermore (regarding some other children here), the study that Lex and his team has done show that drivers are not less engaged while Autopilot is on (as many critics say).

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#460

Post by bobsil1 »

tomComb wrote: post #346
davej wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you look at his past claims it becomes clear that he should just be ignored. What's an example of this? His timelines are often much too aggressive for reality but he repeatedly delivers (eventually).

The main example, of course, is in self-driving where he has most certainly not delivered. And he wasn't just a little off. But also his claims about being able to automate the manufacture of Model 3 turned out to be very wrong and to do terrific damage to the company - they are/were way ahead with their technology and should have taken a less risky approach to getting that tech onto the market and taking advantage o…

He's more credible on physics and hardware than software.
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