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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…

"Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that may or may not be a pedestrian, or a jersey barrier, or whatever" Lidar is inherently probabilistic too,like every sensor is. Just because the photomultiplier voltage rises and some peak detection hardware can correlate it with a transmit pulse, it does not mean that there is a "point" at that position in 3d space. It has different error chara…

None of the cars using LIDAR are using LIDAR only, they are fusing LIDAR, radar, maps, and computer vision.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> require A LOT of training data from all angles Also, we learn things outside of our cars. I ride a bike, this gives me insight into what bike riders will do on the road. I have kids, so I know a kid on the pavement will be more risky / unpredictable than an adult. I drove down a single track road today and met another car coming towards me. We stopped, then he started to reverse, there was a passing place behind hi…

Hmm maybe the problem is actually interacting with humans naturally, on the road, so self-driving is really human-style general AI

> Hmm maybe the problem is actually interacting with humans naturally

Almost every driver has a rythym (or pattern, if you will) to the way they drive; and we pick up on this, and interact with them accordingly on the road. Even most bad drivers have a pattern to the way they drive. The more experienced you are, the easier it is to "read" fellow motorists, and safely interact with them on the road. One of the most difficult scenarios is when you come upon someone who drives with No rythym or pattern whatsoever. You have no clue what that person is Likely (Emphasis on likely) to do next.

I have no experience sharing the road with autonomous vehicles, but I suspect they will Have No rythym to the way they drive, or rather none that is discernible to a human. IMO this will be The major obstacle to overcome if humans and bots are to share the Same road at the same time.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which might explain why he's a crummy CEO. If your job is to strategize for the entire company and you're busy learning the minutiae that you spend a lot of money for other people to worry about, maybe you need to consider using your time a little better. If you want to build neural nets, keep your stock, fire yourself and go build neural nets.

> If your job is to strategize for the entire company and you're busy learning the minutiae that you spend a lot of money for other people to worry about, maybe you need to consider using your time a little better This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing. And have been doing for a long time. If the CEO is not an engineer at heart, what are they? I seriously doubt Elon Musk has more engineering know…

> This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing.

If your goal is to make money, I'd follow anyone but Tesla or SpaceX's example.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

I'm getting tired of saying this. Why is it one or the other? Why only a human driver or a robot driver? Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds? If the human falls asleep, the robot can do trivial driving, and the human still makes the more difficult driving decisions. The question isn't if robot car is better than an average car being driven by a hu…

This basically describes the Toyota Guardian system

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#445
post #298

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I have seen recent Teslas in person in the showrooms, and there doesn't appear to be any wiper for the cameras. Especially with a firsthand owner account just a few comments up I think it's actually only logical at this point to assume they didn't put wipers on the cameras.

I would think that heating the glass (and surrounding casing) would be a more effective measure for keeping a camera clear of snow.

Well they didn't do that either. They didn't do anything for it. But don't worry, FSD is just around the corner and the cars have all the hardware necessary, it's just a software problem now. And this time it's different than in 2016 when they said they had all the hardware they needed. And it's different from 2015 when they said the FSD was coming in 2016.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#446

I'm sorry but I'm finding it really difficult to watch this and match up what the engineer is saying to what Elon Musk is saying. For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: "At firs…

Is it really an ASIC? I thought they said over and over it is full custom.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apart from the map data going stale as it gets out of date, you always have the problem of registration of the vehicles position within the map. GNSS data can have a really long tailed error distribution (particularly within urban canyons and in tunnels). So you always need some way of making a local map and placing it within the high detail global map. There is a pragmatic argument saying if you already have a detai…

That's not how maps are used, and the map can be used as purely negative signal if you want, as in "no go" areas instead of "yes, this is safe". As it stands, Tesla's vision only system has no other backup system to tell us what is off limits.

Can you elaborate a little about how the maps are used? The "go/no go" is basically the sort of thing I mean by "high level navigation", the sort of thing a satnav system would provide help with. If they have nothing like that it seems insane. I guess there is an ambiguity around how high detail is "high detail".

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#448
post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…

>"We've gone over this multiple times. Are we sure we have the right sensor suite? Are we sure we have everything we need?.... No." Where did he say this? He repeatedly said they have everything they need to drive. >but before you can deploy, you need to integrate Lidar, Why? >not all the conventional things you need to build a complete autonomous vehicle. No one knows how to make a completely autonomous vehicle beca…

> whose gotten farther than anyone in this field

What they've done so far is a dangerous lane-assistance. From what's seen they are nowhere near waymo. Would hate for tesla and uber to ruin this for everyone else.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#449
post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The human eye has FAR better dynamic range than any camera built to date, at any price point. Not at all true. All you need to do is take your camera into a dark room for proof. It can take useful pictures in environments you can't see. And with some manual control and safety precautions (seriously, don't actually do this) you'll note you can shoot useful photos of things that are very near bright sources like the…

Dynamic range is the ability to see things in both direct sunlight AND in dark shadows at the same time. You need to be able to see pedestrians that are both directly lit by the sun and in the darkest shadows in the same frame of video. No long exposures, no multiple exposures with varying exposure -- a single frame. I don't know of any 24-32-bit per channel sensors, and that's what you'd need. We agree on vision pro…

You're fooling yourself if you think your eyes can do that. They can't. More to the point, your brain is fooling you, by synthesizing a perception of a reality, the same way it does to make you think the stuff in your peripheral vision is as sharp as the things in the middle.

Vertebrate eyes don't have 24 bits of sensitivity, that's just insane. Rod cells are neurons, they either fire or they don't, can fire at most at about 10 Hz, and you have about a million of them at most across your whole field of vision. Do the math. What you say isn't even physically possible.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#450
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Karpathy is great at presenting executive-101. However self-driving is much much more than image classification. You have a time component, you need to integrate information as it comes in to meaningful state (aka SLAM) and make sequential decisions that has potential to kill people. This is still unsolved research problem unlike punny ImageNet classification. Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about…

This is still unsolved research problem Luckily, Karpathy is pretty good at solving research problems. Karpathy could have easily spent entire day talking about current state of the art and how they have improved on it Why would he do that? To help Uber? Collecting data is actually more trivial part of this problem. For Tesla, yes. For all others that’s the hardest part.

When they say that collecting data is the trivial part, they mean that (in comparison to the other parts of the problem) it is easy for everyone to solve. In other words, they are saying Tesla has an advantage in area that doesn't matter.
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