Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

livestream.tesla.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

201–210 of 550 posts

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#202

Post by gpm »

VikingCoder wrote: post #118

Musk: "You're only going real fast in the forward direction." Dozens of times in my life, I have been driving down the freeway at 70 MPH in a 60 MPH zone, and I've noticed someone weaving through traffic behind me, going closer to 140 MPH. I need to know whether to change lanes, stay in my lane, stop changing lanes, pump my breaks to indicate there is slowdown ahead of me that car might not see, etc. Just food for th…

You're not responsible for dodging the person going 140 MPH behind you to the same extent as you are for dodging the tire doing 0mph in front of you. Humans generally don't because they aren't capable of paying enough attention to what is behind and in front of them simultaneously. The car - with 360 degree vision - is more capable in fact.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#205

Post by sharadov »

grecy wrote: post #184

Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…

And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#207

Post by metafunctor »

Fricken wrote: post #173
sairahul82 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…

I think the point was that lidar is too low resolution. You must have very high resolution (in both time and space) to achieve L4 or L5; to accurately determine if a pedestrian is not paying attention, or if a bicyclist is looking to cross the road.

Not that Tesla is doing any of that right now, they most likely are not. But a lidar is not going to, either. Not ever, which is the point.

I thought the fleet learning aspects Karpathy outlines came pretty damn close to the pixie dust.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#208

Post by gamblor956 »

grecy wrote: post #184

Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…

None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years...

It's also pretty clear based on the selective presentation of data that they're even further behind Waymo than everyone thought. This was the time to actually prove that their ahead, and all they could give was more of Elon's hot air.

At the end Elon said autonomy is basically their entire expense sheet!

Must have missed that part, but if he actually said that it would have been a material misrepresentation of Tesla's financials, since they supposedly made a chunk of cars in Q1...OTOH, if the statement is true and Tesla basically made no cars in Q1, it would explain by Panasonic is refusing to make additional investments in the Gigafactory.

Whether they succeed or fail I admire them aiming so high, and planning so far ahead.

Other companies are both capable of aiming high, planning, and succeeding. Tesla has yet to demonstrate the capacity to do items 2 and 3 on this list. Case in point: pretty much everything about the Model 3 launch, from building to distribution, the solar roof panel (and really, the entire SolarCity acquisition). I'm even going to throw BoringCo in there since it's based out of the Tesla lot and uses Tesla vehicles and engineers.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#209

Post by gpm »

joetribiani wrote: post #170
sackroyd wrote: post #166

Uber and Lyft are fucked.

How so?

If Tesla succeeds at FSD - Tesla is competing against them with hardware that operates at (using the numbers from the presentation, if I recall them correctly) ~1/10th the price.

They have contracts in place with the owners of cars they have sold preventing them from letting Uber and Lyft use the self driving capability to compete.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#210

Post by mzs »

sairahul82 wrote: post #114

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

The livestream is gone though https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE
Post reply on HN