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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem with Tesla is that it is crashing into objects no human would crash into. And doing so at high speed.

I dunno. I've seen perfectly sober, intelligent humans drive into some extremely stupid "situations".

We aren't trying to build another human.

We are trying to build a car that doesn't crash.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#432
post #251
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not assuming the best, I'm assuming basics. We've just watched a presentation where Tesla put immense resources and talent into designing a state of the art vision processing chip. Do you think they're going to let it be rendered useless by not implementing simple physical measures to keep vision coming in from the cameras? (What measures are already there plus easy opportunity for improvement). Of course not. Su…

The basics. Like having a trunk lid design that sheds water properly? https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/water-dripping-into-...

Shut down the company the trunk is slightly off.

Tesla is new to the game, give them a few more cars to catch small stuff like that.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#433
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it snowed a few weekends ago in Chicago, my autopilot turned off because snow covered up the cameras. So I am not buying all this "self driving with no lidar" brouhaha

OK but snow blocks lidar too.

snow might ruin it for everyone. Winter is coming, and we're all screwed...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk would have you think it's a Lidar vs. cameras debate. It's not. It's a Lidar + cameras vs. just cameras debate. Lidar has significant shortcomings. So do cameras. But together they make for a decent perception system. With regards to fleet learning, Tesla has been going on about it for years, but more data is not better. Better data is better. Clifornia's disengagement reports have seen criticism because they pl…

That's correct, it's lidar+cameras vs just cameras. But it should be RF + radar + sonar + lidar + cameras vs anything else. If the 737Max8 tells us anything, it's that one sensor just isn't enough. EM radiation from UV down to radio has different propagation characteristics, and materials form different attenuators. Radio easily passes through most non-metals with less attenuation than 400-800 THz radiation (light).…

You were part of that discussion?

What an amazing position to have been in history, even if it didn't go according to the way you felt (and imo probably are) was right.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm maybe the problem is actually interacting with humans naturally, on the road, so self-driving is really human-style general AI

This is actually the aspect that really doesn't get discussed enough. Imagine these scenarios: a) Roadworks and a guy tells you to stop or waves you through. Or asks you to drive slowly. Or points to a direction that he wants you to go. b) Woman on the side of the road is waving their arms about because her small child is crawling on the road trying to chase a toy. If self driving cars can't look another person in th…

Cars and humans inhabit mutual space to such an extent that perhaps level-5 self-driving wouldn't be enough. What we need might be a general AI that can comprehend its surroundings and connect them to a symbolic hierarchy of intentions well enough to obey Asimov's 3 laws.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm maybe the problem is actually interacting with humans naturally, on the road, so self-driving is really human-style general AI

This is actually the aspect that really doesn't get discussed enough. Imagine these scenarios: a) Roadworks and a guy tells you to stop or waves you through. Or asks you to drive slowly. Or points to a direction that he wants you to go. b) Woman on the side of the road is waving their arms about because her small child is crawling on the road trying to chase a toy. If self driving cars can't look another person in th…

What's the more interesting question is not whether there will be corner cases where self-driving fails, but when the average performance is so much better than humans that AI saves 10s if not 100s of lives every day, but that's still a reality where AI driving software could be actively out there involved in the deaths of a single digit number of different people a day or week.

Do you deploy that build or not?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

I'm getting tired of saying this. Why is it one or the other? Why only a human driver or a robot driver? Could you have a human driver in charge with an accident preventing robot, getting the best of both worlds? If the human falls asleep, the robot can do trivial driving, and the human still makes the more difficult driving decisions. The question isn't if robot car is better than an average car being driven by a hu…

Sure, the way I'm imagining it is some sort of collision avoidance system, where the person drives but the computer can also put on the brake? It seems like that could be safer (although it could still cause an accident by braking in certain situations like in an intersection). If the self-driving system does other things to reduce accidents like leaving greater margins of safety for other drivers (by stopping less suddenly, pulling out into intersections differently, etc), it seems like that would be harder to integrate with a human driving, instead of having the self driving system take over.

A lot of the utility of self driving cars is not just increased safety. It's allowing disabled people to be more independent, reducing the need for car ownership with (less expensive) self-driving taxis, reducing the need for parking lots and allowing that land to be used differently, etc. Do you think self driving cars should be prohibited as long as they are less safe than the standard set by human+collision avoidance cars?

I don't think that makes sense unless cars with human drivers and no collision avoidance are also prohibited. Even then I'm not sure. As a society we know that driving is not totally safe but allow people to drive anyway because it's a useful tool. I don't see why the safety standard should be even higher for self-driving cars, which are even more useful, especially for people who can't drive.

One last thing is that anything that slows the adoption of self-driving cars will probably lead to a much greater number of old, less-safe, cars in use for a longer period of time, since it's very unlikely politically that the existing car stock will be just kicked off the road, regardless of what regulations are set for new ones.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#438
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How recent is your experience? I’ve owned a Model 3 for over a year and the pace at which autopilot has been improving is staggering.

I did a road trip this weekend and used autopilot for more than 400 miles on a brand new P3D (with the FSD option, limited though it is right now). Mostly freeway, some rural roads. Here are my observations, I assume it's pretty typical but obviously all I have is anecdata. Lane following works effectively, but it wanders a bit. Mostly not enough to be bothersome, though sometimes it will hug one side or the other cl…

Thank you for taking the time to write up such a nice trip report!

Some of your experiences are similar to mine. I think you have seen the improved merge handling, in prior versions zipper merging in heavy traffic had me disengaging due to getting too close to the merging car coming into my lane.

I have also experienced the unexpected brake pulse during adaptive cruise on a couple occasions and would really like to have seen some indication on the guidance display of what caused it. The delay when a car moves out of lane (or turns right onto a side street ahead of you) is definitely too long. The stop and go following however I think is extremely smooth, and I commute heavy highway traffic 3-4 days a week and love it. I think the amount of wheel-touch requests from AP has decreased significantly on the highway when speed is low / in traffic, I had maybe 2 or 3 touche requests in 20 minutes of heavy traffic this afternoon, although I may have adjusted volume and skipped tracks in between a couple times (which counts).

I wonder if the seats have changed? I find the drivers seat extremely comfortable. I know the back seats were revised since TM3 started shipping. I love the lack of a model year, they are always refining and enhancing the base hardware.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#439

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I understood HD maps are static data obtained by many various ways (not only lidar)[1]. AFAIR they claimed that Lidar itself provides some value (teaching neural networks how to measure the distance to various objects etc) but the gist is that image recognition is an absolute must-have for self-driving cars (which seems right to me). 1 - https://medium.com/@LyftLevel5/https-medium-com-lyftlevel5-r...

Apart from the map data going stale as it gets out of date, you always have the problem of registration of the vehicles position within the map. GNSS data can have a really long tailed error distribution (particularly within urban canyons and in tunnels). So you always need some way of making a local map and placing it within the high detail global map. There is a pragmatic argument saying if you already have a detai…

That's not how maps are used, and the map can be used as purely negative signal if you want, as in "no go" areas instead of "yes, this is safe".

As it stands, Tesla's vision only system has no other backup system to tell us what is off limits.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://twitter.com/hamids/status/1120466861970399232 These guys also went on the ride-along: https://youtu.be/2BZHXh1nbWc?t=360

That's helpful. Second video says the driver "touched the steering wheel once" in 15 minutes of driving. That's a disconnect. So, one disconnect in, what, 10 miles of driving? Waymo reported one disconnect per 1,392 miles to CA DMV last year. Amusingly, the riders were not allowed to take video.

Actually it's one per 11,017 miles! But be careful quoting the number. It is not all disengagements or all times the autopilot was turned off after being turned on.

It is "deactivation of the autonomous mode when a failure of the autonomous technology is detected or when the safe operation of the vehicle requires that the autonomous vehicle test driver disengage the autonomous mode and take immediate manual control of the vehicle."

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