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Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

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Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#251
post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great-grandparent comment suggests that they did not, in fact, design for it. Assuming the best is nice when you have no information, but we have information.

I'm not assuming the best, I'm assuming basics. We've just watched a presentation where Tesla put immense resources and talent into designing a state of the art vision processing chip. Do you think they're going to let it be rendered useless by not implementing simple physical measures to keep vision coming in from the cameras? (What measures are already there plus easy opportunity for improvement). Of course not. Su…

The basics. Like having a trunk lid design that sheds water properly?

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/water-dripping-into-...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because lidar is expensive, error-prone, and can't be created without flaws. So if you make a car LIdar will fail way before camera. The only problem is if camera only can work

Why not both? Infact, Waymo has Lidar, radar and cameras (Tesla have just the last 2 and are working overtime to demonize the first). More data (and more redundancy) is better - assuming you have the computing power to process all the sensor input. As far as I can tell, the rubbishing of Lidar is FUD.

Because if you're using lidar for depth and you try to mass produce the there a high chance the lidar will be broken and because it accurate people will assume it more correctly. Eyes and camera may sometime make mistake with distance but usually it will be software not hardware. Lidar opens the issue for both. So it's easier to use the camera and just try to make a camera as good as lidar.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#253

Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…

What I found interesting as well is that they (him and Elon) hated the idea of using high definition maps, saying that if you need them you don't do self-driving cars really. For example, when driving condition change (roadblock or anything) you're done.

If this is true, why do Waymo (or any of the top 10 self-driving companies besides Tesla) use Lidar?

Two facts:

1. Tesla can't use Lidar because of cost and aesthetics.

2. Elon has a strong incentive to oversell their approach to self-driving.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#254

I'm sorry but I'm finding it really difficult to watch this and match up what the engineer is saying to what Elon Musk is saying. For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: "At firs…

I'm a fan of Tesla, but not Musk. You really can't believe much that comes out of his mouth. If you look at his past claims it becomes clear that he should just be ignored.

> If you look at his past claims it becomes clear that he should just be ignored.

What's an example of this? His timelines are often much too aggressive for reality but he repeatedly delivers (eventually).

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#255
post #184

Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…

It's so frustrating to see that people eat Elon's BS. Even after:

- the Unsworth lie

- the "zero concern and I mean zero about 10k Model 3s per week in Dec 2018" lie

- the "funding secured" and "only uncertainty is shareholder approval" lies

- the "short burn of the century" lies

I mean, they were even wrong about Nvidia's chip today, Nvidia had to issue a statement: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-says-tesla-inaccura...

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#256
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone doing lidar not also do visual recognition?

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

Waymo is almost certainly using a ton of computer vision in its cars. Vision is needed to classify objects on the road, predict the behaviors of pedestrians, bikers and other drivers, read road signs and traffic lights, etc.

As far as I can tell, LIDAR makes a lot of prediction tasks much easier (since you have both images and LIDAR point clouds), and is also a backup for obstacle detection to ensure that your self-driving car doesn't crash.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe he claimed that they did have all of the sensors they need with hardware v2, and they had no need for LIDAR. We'll see if that's true. One thing that stood out to me is that he said they only need radar in front because you're only moving fast in that direction. Does that mean the cars will be susceptible to T-bone accidents?

I don't know, I guess it will be born out in the data, but I hope they aren't seriously planning to drive people through busy intersections where T-bones are likely to happen under the auspices that what they've got is a level 3/4 system. Waymo's safetly critical disengagements are at 1 every 11,000 miles. Fender benders happen about once every 100,000 miles, so just on that Waymo is off by an order of magnitude, and…

Over how many miles?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For example, the engineer says the custom ASIC does 144 TOps for 2 chips vs the NVidia drive Xavier - does 21 TOps. Okay, well yeah I expect your custom ASIC does have a nice performance advantage over the equivalent GPU. at 3.5x advantage probably seems reasonable. Cue Elon Musk: Here's my issue with that. The on-chip SRAM is only 32MB, and the RAM is LPDDR4 rated at only 68GB/s. Assuming a dot-product (multiply +…

Convolutions have a much higher arithmetic intensity than dot products.

But in terms of CNNs, it's basically dot product is it not?Can you give an example of a CNN where it isn't?

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think any one is doing this. This is the point Karpathy is making. Vision is essential and needs to be perfect and also has all the information to recreate the 3d environment. That's why lidar is not required and is expensive.

lidar is not required and is expensive. Given that the only the company claiming that is the one whose cars sometimes hit (or even swerve into) clearly visible stationary concrete barriers in broad daylight [1, 2, 3, 4], I consider that claim far from proven. [1] 2019 https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/03/dashcam-video-shows-tes... [2] 2018 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16772748 [3] 2017 https://bgr.com/2017/03…

This argument misses the forest for the trees. Even level 5 autopilot will sometimes crash into objects that are clearly visible to most humans, as will lidar-based solutions. But if the robot fleet is an order of magnitude safer than the human fleet, then it makes rational sense to prefer a robot driver to a human.

Re: Tesla Live Stream – Autonomy Day [video]

#260
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it snowed a few weekends ago in Chicago, my autopilot turned off because snow covered up the cameras. So I am not buying all this "self driving with no lidar" brouhaha

Doesn't LIDAR has similar problems with precipitation? Regardless of what solution proves to be the best, there is going to be a decent amount of time between when a self driving car can handle most scenarios and when it can handle all possible scenarios.

Water affects certain wavelengths, and there's been good progress on LIDAR that uses wavelengths that aren't effected.

Most approaches want to use a wavelength that has as little ambient light as possible. That light is absent precisely because it is absorbed by water vapor in the atmosphere. The alternative approach must deal with lower signal:noise, but is not substantially affected by weather.

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