231–240 of 550 posts
On the other hand, I've been sensing that Tesla is finding it harder and harder to raise cash and has been getting increasingly desperate. Are we on the cusp of a new transformative technology or the peak of the mother of all bubbles? Time will tell.
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And I think they are far ahead of the game compared to anyone else w.r.t autonomous driving, they have a fleet sending them data back real time.
This is definitely not true. The engineer explicitly stated that Tesla only gets data when trigger conditions are met (and that this was in fact always the case), so most of the miles that Tesla drivers have been driving was actually never even sent back to the mothership for use in ML training. IOW, despite Elon claiming for years that they're ahead because of the "millions of miles" of free data collection by Tesla…
Holy cow Elon said a lot of things that will drastically change the world in the next 2-3-5 years. I think it's very, very clear they've been doing a lot of stuff behind that scenes that nobody has given them credit for over these last 5 years. Everyone thought they were just throwing everything at the Model 3 ramp and doing nothing else, but it turns out the opposite is true. At the end Elon said autonomy is basical…
None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... It's also pretty clear based on the selective presentation of data that they're even further behind Waymo than everyone thought. This was the time to actually prove that their ahead, and all they could give was more of Elon's hot air. At the end Elon said autonomy is basically their entire expense sheet! Must have missed that part, but if he actually…
Karpathy's presentation is really good. Watch it later if you get some time. The key points are - Telsa is using fleet for learning (Fleet learning). This has 3 components, a. Trigger infrasture that collects the kind of data telsa is looking for training. The rational here is we don't need massive amounts of same kind of data but needs right kind of data for training neural networks correctly. b. Data Engine which l…
Tesla: "We have a global network of cameras that can be queried to find anything on or near roads and send back photos of it." Every law enforcement entity on the planet: drool
It was pointed out that All data is anonymized.
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I keep saying this he knows what he doing. You can tell he knows what's happening. Which is rare for a CEO to know this level of detail.
Funny, I get the opposite impression; the more I hear Musk talk about technical specifications, the less I think he actually understands.
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> I'm specifically talking about the fact that the base model 3 ships with heated seats out of the factory but you can pay to have them unlocked with a software update. If you think this is a new thing, you haven't followed the car industry much. Just as an example, my 2002 el cheapo Peugot was bought without the option to show instantaneous MPG/average MPG/range/etc. Spend two hours soldering/gluing on the missing $…
I can sort of understand the software differentiation - I have no issue with Windows Home and Pro editions having different price points even thought the code on the disc is identical for instance(maybe that's hypocritical of me?). But I do have an issue with paying for hardware(heated seats in this case) and that hardware being disabled until a payment is made. I don't know, it just feels different.
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I keep saying this he knows what he doing. You can tell he knows what's happening. Which is rare for a CEO to know this level of detail.
Which might explain why he's a crummy CEO. If your job is to strategize for the entire company and you're busy learning the minutiae that you spend a lot of money for other people to worry about, maybe you need to consider using your time a little better. If you want to build neural nets, keep your stock, fire yourself and go build neural nets.
This is what everyone that is not Tesla or SpaceX are doing. And have been doing for a long time. If the CEO is not an engineer at heart, what are they?
I seriously doubt Elon Musk has more engineering knowledge than the people he hires on their specific fields. However, he can make pretty well informed strategic decisions if he knows WTF the engineers are talking about without taking their word – not even that, as explanations have to be dumbed down.
This is not a new thing. Bill Gates was like that (1). Steve Jobs was no dummy and had an engineering background, but not at the same level – he did parter with a genius engineer, however.
I think Musk is doing the right thing.
> Which might explain why he's a crummy CEO
That's quite debatable, I'd say. Isn't he getting results?
(1) https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2006/06/16/my-first-billg-rev...
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Vision is probablistic. You can improve your probabilities with more data and deeper nets, but the probability is never 100%. Inferring depth using triangulation of extracted features using vision is also probabilistic. Lidar gives you very rudimentary depth and positional data, but it is precise, and reliable, and the false positives are low. Lidar is not seeing the world as a series of probabilistic phantasms that…
I think the point was that lidar is too low resolution. You must have very high resolution (in both time and space) to achieve L4 or L5; to accurately determine if a pedestrian is not paying attention, or if a bicyclist is looking to cross the road. Not that Tesla is doing any of that right now, they most likely are not. But a lidar is not going to, either. Not ever, which is the point. I thought the fleet learning a…
With regards to fleet learning, Tesla has been going on about it for years, but more data is not better. Better data is better. Clifornia's disengagement reports have seen criticism because they place an emphasis on the number of overall miles driven as a useful measure of progress, when actually it doesn't mean much. Companies like Zoox, after spending years doing small-scale closed course testing hit the ground running, and with only 10 vehicles and a few months of driving around San Fransisco they were able to take reporters for autonomous rides, and they took a couple dozen journalists to various pre-designated spots around SF with only one disengagement the whole day.
The nice thing about the whole fleet learning narrative is that is makes Tesla drivers feel like they're helping just by driving around.