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Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

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Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#141
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you dismissing the data the report contains indicating that the flight crew was unable to trim manually, that the column forces were incredibly high, and that the captain repeatedly indicated he could not maintain elevator trim without the co-pilot's aid, then? Your responses have been incredibly selective about which parts of the report you take as gospel and which you handwave away as "speculation". From wh…

The report does not actually indicate which "manually" the pilots meant, with the switches or with the trim wheel. When the question came up they went and turned the electric trim system back on and appeared to test it (only trimmed 0.2 units). Honestly if I had just turned the thing back on I would have trimmed it all the way to where I want it.

>The report does not actually indicate which "manually" the pilots meant, with the switches or with the trim wheel.

This isn't consistent with any coherent reading of the transcript:

> At 05:41:46, the Captain asked the First-Officer if the trim is functional. The First-Officer has replied that the trim was not working and asked if he could try it manually.

They've already hit the stab cutout at this point. Now maybe they're think this is like the older 737s and the cutout cut the autopilot and not the full electrical, BUT if you think the question he was asking was whether or not he could try the thumb switch, what exactly would he have been trying prior to that that "wasn't working"?

There is no other trim to try before the thumb switches such that you'd refer to the thumb switches as "trying it manually" when $OTHER_THING was not working. In the transcript, given what's being said, it's clearly the wheel crank that's meant. It doesn't even make sense otherwise.

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#142
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If he says anything other than that, odds of the 737 MAX being scrapped entirely (from customer and air passenger pressure) goes up. Saving face to save the share price.

Maybe it shouldn't be, but your comment is surprisingly cynical to me. I don't believe share price is at the front of his mind, nor any of the engineers working at Boeing. I, for one, work for much more than a paycheck; I think it's reasonable to think they do too. You could argue that it was at the front of their minds before these accidents, but IMO that conclusion only stands in confirmation of some bias against l…

I read that statement as the share price being the only thing on their minds. (Did not explicitly exonerate the pilots.)

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#143
This has been a 50 year problem in the making, and whether it's for better or worse should be more carefully studied. Because here's my understanding of the history:

Through WW2 and the proliferating age of defense contractors, the government (mostly defense department, but also civilian agencies) stood almost on equal footing with contractors in their ability to design, scope, and evaluate big projects.

You would see scientists and in-house advisers at these departments able to expertly evaluate proposals/designs by contractors with sufficient background knowledge and tools to do so. They even worked closely with contractors to lay out the requirements and designs for systems, or products.

But, through the decades, a couple factors eroded this equal footing of the government / regulatory experts:

-- Shrinking of government budgets for (or unwillingness of the public to stomach) the ranks of Washington "bureaucrats" who represented this expert class of people (what harm is there in cutting "fat" from public servants who don't seem to produce anything tangible?)

-- More attractive pay, career potential, prestige, etc. of working in the private sector

-- Political distaste for being seen as working too closely with contractors

So what happened is that gradually but surely, government lost the tools to do these things themselves, and by sheer need to still have things approved, shifted the work onto industry.

What can you do when industry comes to you with new complicated designs for things, and you have no one who can assess (and no budget to pay for assessments of) whether those designs are safe? You ask the person proposing to critique themselves, and in many cases, they seem to know more than you anyway.

Of course, what in part probably led to our current situation.

As I said in the beginning, the pros and cons of operating a system in this way should be looked at.

As a society, my question is, how do we make it possible to choose to do these things in the way that produces the right outcome? For a start, I think we need to stop asking everyone to make uninformed votes about certain detailed things we don't understand, yet rely on every day. That definitely produces bad consequences for many issues.

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem for me is not with the error that happened but by the response of the CEO for the accident. People who fly on new planes can't be bullsh*tted that easily, as they read news all the time. The Boeing CEO has no idea how much he is in the center of attention for his clients right now.

> The Boeing CEO has no idea how much he is in the center of attention for his clients right now. Do you really think this?

I think he underestimates how well informed people are, or maybe I'm overestimating. It's good that he said that Boing takes responsibility, but instead of saying that he's confident in 737 MAX he should have said that he's making sure that the fix is well tested. Also he could have gone into the details of the verification plan to calm the technical crowd.

Anyways, we'll see how the stock price looks in a year, I sincerely have no idea, but I think airlines outside US will try to prefer Airbus for new contracts in the next year.

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called Regulatory Capture, and it happens to all regulatory agencies sooner or later. They become primarily concerned with the interests of the companies they're regulating, rather than the public interest they're in theory tasked with working for. Unfortunately, that is just how a regulated society works.

How do you arrive at such a conclusion? Have you researched regulatory agencies in EU? For example they just blocked a meeger between two massive train manufacturer. Your argument sounds like a weak libertarian talking point.

regulatory capture is an event, threshold, inflection point, or whatever else you want to call it. it isn’t something that just poofs into existence as soon as a regulatory body is created. however, it does seem to be an end state or at least an evolutionary state of many agencies. for example, the faa in this case or the fcc.

just because a regulatory agency did its job by protecting the pulic’s interest doesn’t mean it will always work that way. so your example doesn’t negate the existence of regulatory capture, which is an actual thing and not some political propaganda.

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called Regulatory Capture, and it happens to all regulatory agencies sooner or later. They become primarily concerned with the interests of the companies they're regulating, rather than the public interest they're in theory tasked with working for. Unfortunately, that is just how a regulated society works.

How do you arrive at such a conclusion? Have you researched regulatory agencies in EU? For example they just blocked a meeger between two massive train manufacturer. Your argument sounds like a weak libertarian talking point.

It's not something I've dreamed up personally. Economists have done a lot of work in this area (Public Choice Theory) in the last 60 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice

Of course, my post above is sharpened and overgeneralized to fit in an online forum. There are more nuances.

A current example in the news is Facebook asking congress to be regulated. This makes little sense from a conventional perspective. From the Regulatory Capture perspective it's an obvious play. Government regulation will be very costly to comply with, and only FB and a few other giants will be able to afford it, thus cementing FBs monopoly position for the foreseeable future.

https://www.insidesources.com/facebooks-mark-zuckerberg-asks...

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#147

This has been a 50 year problem in the making, and whether it's for better or worse should be more carefully studied. Because here's my understanding of the history: Through WW2 and the proliferating age of defense contractors, the government (mostly defense department, but also civilian agencies) stood almost on equal footing with contractors in their ability to design, scope, and evaluate big projects. You would se…

Industry user fees? The FDA, while not perfect, has been pay to play for a while.

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#148
post #2

,,We remain confident in the fundamental safety of the 737 MAX.'' Am I irrational for not wanting to be on the first 1-2 years of flights on 737 MAX after it gets its software update?

I would never trust a software patch with my life!

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#149

This has been a 50 year problem in the making, and whether it's for better or worse should be more carefully studied. Because here's my understanding of the history: Through WW2 and the proliferating age of defense contractors, the government (mostly defense department, but also civilian agencies) stood almost on equal footing with contractors in their ability to design, scope, and evaluate big projects. You would se…

Can you provide evidence the FAA lacks sufficient expertise?

Re: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg Addresses the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 Report

#150
post #2

,,We remain confident in the fundamental safety of the 737 MAX.'' Am I irrational for not wanting to be on the first 1-2 years of flights on 737 MAX after it gets its software update?

After the problems with the 737 MAX and the 787 before that. I would avoid flying any Boeing aircraft in the first few years after it's deployed.
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