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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#401

Post by xedeon »

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

> I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sale for Tesla.

Looking at the numbers, this is a hard no:

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Q4 2018:

Tesla Crushes Porsche & Jaguar Globally — 4th Quarter Sales Report

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/19/tesla-crushes-porsche-j...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#402

Post by xedeon »

twblalock wrote: post #240
steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Jaguar, Audi, and BMW are all working on electric cars to compete directly with Tesla. These are large car companies who know how to build millions of cars per year. They have large dealer networks already in place to sell and service their cars. Competition is going to get a lot tougher for Tesla over the next few years.

> Competition is going to get a lot tougher for Tesla over the next few years.

People have been saying this since the Gen 1 roadster came out in 2008. Where are these cars from the auto incumbents at? More EV's the better but they are nowhere to be found.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#403

Post by credit_guy »

ody4242 wrote: post #301
steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

In my opinion, the Supercharger port (and the junction box) is way more advanced, compact, and cheaper than a CCS port. The Tesla onboard charger is clever enough to sense that it's connected to a DC charger, so they can use the same pins for AC and DC charging. Otoh, the CCS is a bulky connector + the germans were clever enough to add the PLC protocol as well, to make it even more complex and expensive. Don't get me…

I remember Tesla saying they are letting anyone use their patents. Was that just some PR stunt?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#404

Post by maxerickson »

Klathmon wrote: post #116
yumraj wrote: post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps an…

They literally can't afford to slow down because they are carrying a massive amount of debt and the only way to pay it off is to sell an awful lot of cars.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#405

Post by ntsplnkv2 »

jtaillon wrote: post #352
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My Model 3 can conveniently do cross-country trips. Not compared to gasoline, though.

Disclosure: I'm a Tesla owner; I don't understand the point of this argument. Yes, in a ICE vehicle you can reach your destination marginally faster (we're talking about an hour on an 11-hour trip up the I-95 corridor, in my experience), but is that actually an important factor? For 99.9% of trips that are within a couple hundred miles of home, travel time is the same. If time is such an important factor on a long ro…

A Corolla gets double the range on a tank of gas than a Tesla.

> If time is such an important factor on a long road trip, you should probably just be flying instead.

This is rather tone deaf. Not surprised. A car designed and priced for rich people, attracts rich people. What a luxury it must be for you to afford to fly. Plenty of people make road trips. Growing up all we did was drive, often times 15 hours, for vacation. Can't imagine stopping every 3 hours for a half hour to charge. That's 2 and a half hours lost out of our vacation. Then you have to make sure there is a place to charge at your actual destination...

Tesla certainly has the best build out, they're the disruptors - of course they're ahead. But the value isn't there yet, for me to switch from ICE. It's really expensive. Servicing is an absolute nightmare. Charging at home isn't always quick enough. The supercharger network is on interstates mainly - that gets you a lot of places, not all places.

You can continually nip at the edges and say "who really drives like that" or "who's really going to those places." That's beside the point - they're excuses. ICE is simply a better product right now. it has none of the downsides, except eco-friendliness. I mean, hell, you can get a solid Corolla for a fourth of the price of a Model 3. It's great on gas, and gas is cheap anyway.

If Tesla figures out its scaling issues and the market adds some competition and the product is there, I'll buy in. Just not ready to yet.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#406

Post by steelframe »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #332
steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Another Tesla owner here. For me everything you say sounds convincing until I look at the Supercharging network. From my perspective every single issue you mention is a valid point; it's just that Tesla's nationwide (in North America) supercharging network is worth 5,000 points. When other manufacturers solve this problem (and Tesla hasn't met their quality standards) those manufacturers will be an option.

You wouldn't happen to be the Matthew D. Green at Johns Hopkins, would you? If so, you blogged about something I did in Android a few years ago. Hint: I designed and implemented eCryptfs and EXT4/F2FS fscrypt. Small world.

Anyway, I expect that Tesla's supercharging network will go the way of Betamax or 25519. Just because you're first and/or you're better doesn't necessarily mean that you win. With the entire automotive industry (minus Tesla) adopting CCS, Tesla clearly has an uphill battle on its hands. But I'll admit that anything can happen, and I'm terrible at predicting the future.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#407

Post by jmpman »

zaksoup wrote: post #242
jmpman wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The RAV4EV and Mercedes were built as California compliance cars. They’re fantastic vehicles (I own a RAV4EV), and with a bit more range, I’d prefer that over the Model Y. Notice that these were released back in 2012, and almost 7 years later, there isn’t a comparable SUV for less than $75k. Once Toyota produced their required 2600 cars to get sufficient California credits, they ended the program.

I don't disagree that they're great cars (I tried very hard to find and purchase a b class), but the reporting I linked suggests strongly that both Daimler and Toyota intended to continue the partnership past just the CARB complaince models but ultimately changed their minds. This was not a limited partnership that was always ended to end at 2600 models.

Maybe it was intended to last longer. The vehicle pricing was up in the $50k+ range, and I think deep discounting was required to move them. Rumor is that Toyota lost many millions. Cars.com allows you to search for the Rav4EV and B-class rather easily. The RAV4EV is going for around $14k these days. It’s a great commuter car, but doesn’t have the distance to make it a very practical solo vehicle. I supplement mine with a huge Suburban.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#408

Post by steelframe »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #344
xkjkls wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem hard for other manufacturers to come to an industry standard for car charging, and then have that built out. There's only 119 supercharging stations in the US. For the rest of the automotive industry to match that, especially if they all decide to collaborate, would take less than a year to catch up.

Even if everyone started planning tomorrow, you'd be optimistically looking at a couple of years before this hypothetical new charging network began to be useful. That makes your car useless for a large fraction of its lifespan. Whereas Tesla's charging network exists today. (And I would add that I've heard nothing serious about a plan like this being in the works, so it may in fact be several years away if it ever h…

Well, whether the availability of rapid charging stations makes your car useful would sort of depend on your lifestyle. In my family's case, we haven't supercharged our Model X since we went to see that crazy lunar eclipse in northern Oregon, and we don't expect to ever need to rapidly charge our I-PACE.

That said, Electrify America is a thing and is in active deployment. I visited an EA station 40 miles from my house a couple of times and tried it out. It gives me the full 100kW that my I-PACE can currently take.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#409

Post by jacques_chester »

xedeon wrote: post #396
xkjkls wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, basically in the places that coastal elites exist.

I live in the Boise, Idaho area. Far from a "coastal elite" location. They are also surprisingly everywhere here, where everyone love their pickup trucks. Just the other day, I say a Model S as soon as I exited our subdivision. Saw 5 Model X's and another 6 Model S's. So no, not really.

How many Toyota Corollas did you count? Or F-150s?

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#410

Post by jmpman »

jmpman wrote: post #407
zaksoup wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree that they're great cars (I tried very hard to find and purchase a b class), but the reporting I linked suggests strongly that both Daimler and Toyota intended to continue the partnership past just the CARB complaince models but ultimately changed their minds. This was not a limited partnership that was always ended to end at 2600 models.

Maybe it was intended to last longer. The vehicle pricing was up in the $50k+ range, and I think deep discounting was required to move them. Rumor is that Toyota lost many millions. Cars.com allows you to search for the Rav4EV and B-class rather easily. The RAV4EV is going for around $14k these days. It’s a great commuter car, but doesn’t have the distance to make it a very practical solo vehicle. I supplement mine w…

BTW, the Mercedes B has a silly range of just 84 miles. The additional 20 miles in the Rav4EV makes or breaks it for my needs.
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