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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#241
Percent change in sales from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019

  Tesla -30% (90,700 to 63,000) (deliveries)
  Bolt -30%  (6212 to 4316) (sold)
  Leaf -33%  (4029 to 2685) (sold)

Source: ir.tesla.com, random news articles on quarterly automotive deliveries from google news.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#242
post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla tried this with Toyota on the Rav4 EV, for which Tesla provided battery and drivetrain. Toyota decided Tesla was so hard to work with that it was worth ending all future partnerships. Tesla also provided the full battery and Drivetrain for the Mercedes-Benz B-class EV and Daimler ultimately cancelled the project to bring the technology in-house. I don't think the issue is that Tesla is unwilling to be an OEM, b…

The RAV4EV and Mercedes were built as California compliance cars. They’re fantastic vehicles (I own a RAV4EV), and with a bit more range, I’d prefer that over the Model Y. Notice that these were released back in 2012, and almost 7 years later, there isn’t a comparable SUV for less than $75k. Once Toyota produced their required 2600 cars to get sufficient California credits, they ended the program.

I don't disagree that they're great cars (I tried very hard to find and purchase a b class), but the reporting I linked suggests strongly that both Daimler and Toyota intended to continue the partnership past just the CARB complaince models but ultimately changed their minds. This was not a limited partnership that was always ended to end at 2600 models.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#243

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

In complete agreement about the need for EVs in general to converge around one open royalty-free charging standard.

More on the side of Tesla when it comes to interior minimalism and less buttons. Ideally, voice recognition should control almost everything, and that would be superior for both comfort and safety.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#244

Everybody knew this was coming: one month of deliveries on the boat to Europe, the availability of the 3 outside of North America affecting demand for the S & X outside of North America, and news of the Y Osborne'ing the X. The numbers for S/X are worse than expected, but I'm sure it's within the bounds of Tesla's planning scenarios.

Plus delivery overhang after the 4th quarter. Some people surely must have accelerated their order to right before Christmas to take advantage of an additional $3750 tax credit.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#245
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. Tesla is like Apple in a way. They are both the "Brand name" and the "technology" all in one package, and splitting the 2 would lead to each one being significantly less than half their total. Personally I think what would be best for Tesla (in a vacuum) is if they stopped trying to grow so quickly, and grew much like the other car manufacturers did, over a longer period of time, so that missteps an…

If we follow your analogy, Apple provides both hardware and software value. In the case of Tesla, IMHO, the value is mostly hardware as in the core technology, not, IMHO, in the car/controls/screen/ that they put around. Again, as a thought experiment: Would customers not like a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... with Tesla battery/drivetrain/superchargers but in a Mercedes/BMW/Lexus/Audi/Jag... car shell(for lack of a b…

I would sure as hell buy, say, a GM (Camaro) or Honda (Odyssey) electric car featuring a Tesla battery. Let everyone focus on their core competencies.

Edit: autocorrect

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#246
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. According to their SEC filings Tesla spends tens of millions of dollars per quarter on marketing costs. Where does the idea that they spend zero on advertising come from?

Zero is an under statement, but relative to the $4B Ford spends for example, Tesla's $70M advertising costs are tiny. You could also say that about the number of cars Tesla has sold too, but auto companies typically have an incredibly large ad spend.

> Zero is an under statement, but relative to the $4B Ford spends for example, Tesla's $70M advertising costs are tiny. You could also say that about the number of cars Tesla has sold too.

Yeah, from the numbers I can find, Tesla sold around 255,000 cars in 2018, Ford sold around 6 million. While I'm not sure what time period those advertising figures are, per car sold in 2018 they aren't wildly in different leagues; Tesla's are lower, but presumably marketing has diminishing marginal returns.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#247

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Jaguar, Audi, and BMW are all working on electric cars to compete directly with Tesla. These are large car companies who know how to build millions of cars per year. They have large dealer networks already in place to sell and service their cars. Competition is going to get a lot tougher for Tesla over the next few years.

Tesla builds more cars per quarter than Jaguar already. But yes, competition is (finally!) coming and that's a great thing.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#248
post #237

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Audio controls are on the steering wheel (in the Model 3 at least)

It is a bit overkill, though, no?

It seems every option is enumerated as its own physical switch, knob, or lever.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#249
post #101

I think it's more or less generally agreed that Tesla has the best in class battery, charger and perhaps drive train, including motors, technology. However, they have a single car plant and struggle with production and quality, after sales support and so on. I wonder, as a thought experiment, if Tesla would be more successful if they become the OEM, providing their technology to the various car manufacturers. Somethi…

It's really hard to spend 15 years telling the world that you are going to put a bunch of other companies completely out of business, and then pivot to becoming a supplier to those companies.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now is a good time to buy put options.

Is that not technically untrue as this is already priced, with options being very expensive due to high implied volatility now?

You'll know when your options expire ^_^
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