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Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#391
post #151
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford just announced a head-on competitor to Tesla, based on the Mustang: https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2019/4/2/18292752/ford... They’re clearly staying in the car market. Instead, they realized that gas guzzling midrange sedans don’t sell anymore, and killed those off. That lets them focus on smaller and larger vehicles, which is where the demand is.

Ah yes, ships in 2020, a full 7 years behind Model S and with no available specs to compare.

Let's read all about the Model Y specs...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#392
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bea…

They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unri…

Seems like there's new & better lithium ion battery tech in the pipeline - though not specific to Tesla:

https://interestingengineering.com/new-lithium-ion-battery-b...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the correct comparison would be Average Selling Price (ASP), which for a Model 3 is nearly $60k USD. So I think when someone suggests a 50% price reduction, they are saying they'd love to buy a Tesla that is real-world, no tax credits necessary, breaking the $30k barrier. The most expensive Toyota Camry barely tops $30k[0], and the vast majority sells for less. So ultimately, mainstream electric cars will hav…

The $35k price for the base Model 3 is before tax incentives. After tax incentives in CA it's something like $28k + sales tax.

The incentive in CA for the M3 is $2,500, and Tesla's Federal incentive is about to drop to $1,750.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#394
post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be skeptical about this. The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. Unfortunately, Solar-city and taking on convertible debt vs. equity have shrunk down their runway. Had they not done the related party transaction and issued equity, I think they could ramp production at a slower rate without the quality issues you hear about. I do…

> The extreme/rare event is Tesla got hundreds of thousands of people to put a down payment on a car with zero marketing costs. According to their SEC filings Tesla spends tens of millions of dollars per quarter on marketing costs. Where does the idea that they spend zero on advertising come from?

Marketing != Advertising. You might want to look up the definitions.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#396
post #354
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In sorta-rich places like Washington, DC, they’re all over the place.

Yeah, basically in the places that coastal elites exist.

I live in the Boise, Idaho area. Far from a "coastal elite" location. They are also surprisingly everywhere here, where everyone love their pickup trucks.

Just the other day, I say a Model S as soon as I exited our subdivision. Saw 5 Model X's and another 6 Model S's. So no, not really.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#397
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, it just feels wrong in this case. Who wants a Tesla without autopilot? If they're trying to sell as many as possible, give the software away for free.

> Who wants a Tesla without autopilot? Those who don't want to be killed or injured when the autopilot steers into a wall or oncoming traffic?

April fools was 3 days ago.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#398
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think thats bad. Tesla is about to have to head to head with all the majors who are now starting to finally harvest about a decade of their own research in the space (prompted by Teslas early success). Musks ambitions and outbursts strike me as a man who suffers from the top killer of successful entrepreneurs, The skill/talent portability fallacy. It's this idea because you did something similar well, that your a…

I don't disagree, but this reminds me SO much of when I bought my first Mac in 2002 (mind you, I was switching from Linux, not from Windows) and all the nay-sayers were claiming stupid stuff like "MAC doesn't have virus problems because who writes viruses for 2% of the market?" My basic attitude was "I'll enjoy what I've got while I have it." I've only OWNED a Tesla for 6 months, but man it feels like the other manuf…

> but man it feels like the other manufacturers have been about to release a Tesla killer Real Soon Like Now for a whooole lot of years.

Yes, decades and counting of nothing but vaporware and concept cars. Like this article from 2009:

https://www.wired.com/2009/12/audis-electric-e-tron-is-real-...

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My Model 3 can conveniently do cross-country trips. Not compared to gasoline, though.

Would have to mostly agree here, but it's trading time spent at one place for time spent at another. (Disclosure: I'm a Chevy Volt owner, so I have the option of both EV charging and gasoline, on rare occasion). I recently saw someone make a valid point (IMHO) that I hadn't given much thought in the past: The time spent a DC chargers is somewhat offset by lack of stops at a gas station. Assuming you stop for gas once…

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Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#400
post #79

It feels wrong that they charge for autopilot when it's just software--they should give it away for free. This really affects how I feel about buying a Tesla when it's in the cart. I wonder if sales would go up if they just gave it away for free, and if the economics still work out.

Because hiring software developers is also free. /s
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