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Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

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Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#161

Post by catdog »

crdrost wrote: post #98
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #6

I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?

So a country called Greece which had been a part of the EU had a severe financial collapse a year or two (2009ish?) after the period when (2007-2008) the US had a subprime mortgage collapse that triggered the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the period that we sometimes call the Great Recession now. This led to a great lack of faith in the value of the EU because it creates some notion from the richer countries, "ew, why…

> Cameron resigned as PM and was replaced by May.

You missed the part where May called a general election right after sending the official withdrawal notice where she only barely gained a majority giving the Brexit hardliners a lot of additional power. Again based on way too favorable predictions about voters preferences.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#162

Post by rtkwe »

nbevans wrote: post #117
rtkwe wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the consensus is they will just extend instead of actually going through a 100% no-deal Brexit. Seems like a fairly safe bet given the UK can do it unilaterally and how bad it would be.

We cannot extend unilaterally. It needs EU's consent and they've already stated that: 1) it won't be free - £1bn/mo has been mooted from various sources, 2) there would be clear legal strings attached such as a requirement for a 2nd referendum, 3) extension would only be allowed up to the day before the EU Parliament elections on 23rd May.

Ah I thought it was extension but from other comments it seems they can just cancel Article 50, my bad. That requirement for a second referendum might be a good thing though, seems like that's the only way out politically (to be forced by an outside force) given how many of the heads party have said a second referendum would tarnish the democratic process (which is BS to me but that's their stance).

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#163

Post by treis »

ars wrote: post #153
treis wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. There's basically two big stumbling blocks: The first is that there has to be a customs check between either: (1) The EU/Republic of Ireland , (2) ROI and Northern Ireland, or (3) Northern Ireland and Britain (the island). (1) is unacceptable to the EU. (2) breaks the Good Friday a…

What happens if there is no customs check at any of those locations? i.e. each party says "you do it, I won't", and it ends up that no one did?

Massive VAT fraud. With no border check you say whatever you want for the value of the goods. Leads to situations where merchants can pocket most of the VAT.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#164

Post by rndmio »

lanevorockz wrote: post #46
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #6

I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?

Brexit is happening because the EU is becoming a political entity and no longer an economic union. The direction was set in 2014 with the election of Juncker that is one of the architects of the Euro. The government voted itself to have more power without any validation with other countries, this caused a massive push back against the EU is ALL of Europe. Don't forget that France has been revolting for almost three m…

I take it you're unaware of the treaty of Rome? It's been that way since the start.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#165

Post by SiVal »

dragonwriter wrote: post #157
SiVal wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, fellow American, how about this, then: You're in prison, want to get out, and are granted an appeal. If you lose the appeal, that's the end. You stay in prison. But you win the appeal. Not guilty. But instead of allowing you to leave, the prosecutors demand you be tried again. After all, if you really are not guilty, what possible objection could you have to another trial? Or let's say that I'm President. You a…

That analogy requires a strong reason to see being kept in the EU as a punishment rather than being ejected from it as one, because if you reverse the scenario between guilty and not guilty, well, a new trial based on signficant new information is actually an accepted thing in the US.

The "confusion" was about why anyone would object to just having another vote. The majority of voters voted for "let us out", which is a strong reason why--to those voters--being forced to stay where they don't want to stay is a far better analogy than fear of being forced out.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#166

Post by catdog »

evgen wrote: post #134
sparkie wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Membership of the EU has been a hot topic before the EU even existed. Ted Heath got us into the EEC without a referendum in 72, and then offered us a vote to remain or leave in 75. The scaremongering about leaving back then was almost exactly the same as it is being presented now. My opinion is that a deal cannot be negotiated among uneven parties. Right now, the UK can either leave with no deal, or leave on the term…

I have often wondered where this delusional "the EU needs us more than we need them" view comes from and here I have it on display. The EU is not happy with, but perfectly content to accept, the UK leaving. They will not change their mind about a trade deal and in fact will go out of their way to bend the UK leadership over and remind them of their public school days at Eton to prove a point. The fact that so far the…

> The fact that so far the UK has _zero_ post-Brexit trade deals

They thought they could simply quickly negotiate trade deals using the existing EU ones as a blueprint. I think they now reached a single digit number of agreements but nothing with a huge trade volume (includes economic superpowers like the Faroe Islands or Liechtenstein and as the list goes on it does only get slightly better).

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#167

Post by AnimalMuppet »

atombender wrote: post #140
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #6

I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?

In terms of "political suicide": It's complicated. There are lots of MPs who would want nothing more than to scrap Brexit or at least hold a second referendum. However, the situation is similar to what's happening with Trump and the Republican Party in the US: Politicians vote on party lines against their personal beliefs (or the desires of their constituents) simply so the party can hold on to power. May and the Tor…

> May and her colleagues would prefer Brexit to losing their power.

That I think is the fundamental problem. It's not unique to May, or even to the UK, either. You see this all the time. Politicians want to win the next election more than they want to do the right thing (or even the right thing according to their own views). But if you can't do what you think should be done, what's the point of having power?

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#168

Post by marssaxman »

pmyteh wrote: post #73
weinzierl wrote: post #55

> MPs voted down her deal by 391 to 242 - a smaller defeat than when they rejected it in January. > The PM said MPs will now get a vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal on 29 March and, if that fails, on whether Brexit should be delayed. What happens if they vote "No" three times in a row (no deal, no no-deal , no postponement)? If this wasn't politics I'd say: See if you can simplify this function, bonu…

I think 'handsInTheAir()' got thrown a while ago; the trouble is that the government's error handler sucks, and so does its parent's (Parliament). But, by design, exceptions don't automatically propagate from Parliament to its parent (the citizens) so the process is currently wedged in some kind of undefined behaviour. And no-one has the privileges to HUP the job.

The Queen does not have root?

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#169

Post by DuskStar »

_rpd wrote: post #145
pmyteh wrote: post #4

The current BBC headline is "Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes", which is a better summary of the situation. For a variety of reasons (legal, procedural, and political) MPs can't simply resolve to reject Brexit, and didn't do so today. What they can do is reject the exit deal that May has negotiated. Some of them have voted to do this because they want a 'softer' Brexit with a closer ongoing relation…

This 6 minute video by CGP Grey explains the different possible relationships with the EU available to the UK, and why the UK has so far rejected all of them ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agZ0xISi40E

I particularly liked his followup on the border options available [0]. They all have issues, with the general choices being "Northern Ireland doesn't actually Brexit", "the UK doesn't actually Brexit" and "Northern Ireland has troubles [1] again, because the UK just broke the Good Friday Agreement [2]". That situation's not looking great.

0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1Yv24cM2os 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#170

Post by pmyteh »

marssaxman wrote: post #168
pmyteh wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think 'handsInTheAir()' got thrown a while ago; the trouble is that the government's error handler sucks, and so does its parent's (Parliament). But, by design, exceptions don't automatically propagate from Parliament to its parent (the citizens) so the process is currently wedged in some kind of undefined behaviour. And no-one has the privileges to HUP the job.

The Queen does not have root?

You're quite right, the Queen does have root. But she's not allowed in the server room after That Incident with Charles, one of her predecessors in the job. And it's been so long since her personal credentials were needed that nobody's quite sure where they are...
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