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Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

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Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#71

I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?

The problem was the plebiscite format. It had two options:

. [ ] Remain a member of the European Union

. [ ] Leave the European Union

Do you see the huge honking flashing design flaw here?

No? Let's rephrase this with a little substitution:

. [ ] Continue the known reality

. [ ] Do something else (to be determined later)

There's the problem. The second was a catch-all that cast a huge net encompassing all imagined alternatives. Everything that isn't what is currently now, that's option 2.

That's what won, because it's every imagined alternative tossed in a huge pile. Your Own Personal Favorite Idea is option 2! Hooray!

The problem is that when that has to become concrete it turns out that staying in the EU outweighs any one particular instance of the "leave the EU" reality ... and one of them has to be executed on.

WHAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED

The plebiscite should have had detailed, specific scenarios and been structured as follows:

. [ ] Remain in the EU

. [ ] Option 1 (addendum 1)

. [ ] Option 2 (addendum 2)

. [ ] ...

. [ ] Option N (addendum n)

Why? Because that's what would actually be happening, the actual reality that has to be contended with, not just some undefined fantasy.

BUT THIS FAVORS STAYING, ALWAYS

No. Not necessarily. If the Brexiters could offer a real-world, concrete, provable, air-tight demonstrably better alternative instead of amorphous good-feelings then they can persuade the public with this imagined reality instead of relying on a reality imagined.

What shouldn't have been allowed, and why this is a total mess, is an option of amorphous make-believe. Make-believe will always win.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#72

> MPs voted down her deal by 391 to 242 - a smaller defeat than when they rejected it in January. > The PM said MPs will now get a vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal on 29 March and, if that fails, on whether Brexit should be delayed. What happens if they vote "No" three times in a row (no deal, no no-deal , no postponement)? If this wasn't politics I'd say: See if you can simplify this function, bonu…

tempting

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#73

> MPs voted down her deal by 391 to 242 - a smaller defeat than when they rejected it in January. > The PM said MPs will now get a vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal on 29 March and, if that fails, on whether Brexit should be delayed. What happens if they vote "No" three times in a row (no deal, no no-deal , no postponement)? If this wasn't politics I'd say: See if you can simplify this function, bonu…

I think 'handsInTheAir()' got thrown a while ago; the trouble is that the government's error handler sucks, and so does its parent's (Parliament).

But, by design, exceptions don't automatically propagate from Parliament to its parent (the citizens) so the process is currently wedged in some kind of undefined behaviour. And no-one has the privileges to HUP the job.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#74
post #7

I've had the feeling that the UK won't actually leave the EU for a while, now. Does it look like that feeling is going to turn to be right, or we just don't know..?

Well there seems to be a majority of MPs against no deal, theres a vote on that tomorrow. So that would mean May going back to the EU to ask for an extension. That would seem most likely to be until May, before the EU elections. I can't see that being more than a temporary date though. Any other option has to take more time than 2 ish months.

That's where my crystal ball goes cloudy.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#75

I followed the Commons debates during both votes. It's just surreal. It's as if the UK was living in some kind of bubble where just about anything happening outside of it had no existence let alone importance whatsoever. If I were a UK voter I'd be extremely angry. As an EU citizen I sincerely hope the outcome will be the UK ultimately staying in -- if only because of the outright lies during the referendum and the s…

> As an EU citizen I sincerely hope the outcome will be the UK ultimately staying in -- if only because of the outright lies during the referendum and the suspicion of Russian influence in the Leave vote. What if i told you that crying "b-but the other side lied!" and talking about "russian hackers" do not outweigh a fair, free, democratically held vote? Imagine the vote was vice versa and the right-wing would be cry…

> do not outweigh a fair, free, democratically held election

In case it needs reminding, those elections did occur, and May ended up needing to go in bed with the DUP to stay in power.

Edit: ok, I see what you've done with your edit...

> Imagine the vote was vice versa and the right-wing would be crying about unfair campaign ads and Brussel influence, not one person would take them seriously.

Everyone would have correctly raised that it's horse shit, because the EC is fairly transparent in what it does if you bother to take a look.

The real wtf in recent decades has been that Brussels is a perfect scapegoat: as a national politician you can go to the European Council and promote what have you; EC and EP pick it up and deliver; and then you can turn around and tell voters "see it's Brussel's fault" because national newspapers aren't reporting enough on what's going on in the EU.

And just to be clear, this is nothing new. It already was a problem 20 years ago. And insofar as I've been made aware by the law teachers I had back then, 40 years ago as well.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#76
post #11

Why do politicians always seem so uncivilized to me? Both sides of an argument always argue as if they believe the other side is stupid and they know for sure they are right. That is the biggest stupidity in itself. Why are there no politicians that spend their time on trying to understand the other side, rather then shouting out their own message? Those would be the ones I would vote. But they simply do not exist.

How would you know that one party understands the other side? Because they went silent? How would you know one party understands the other side, and continues to talk about their own politics anyway? That would again seem like they are just talking and not understanding each other.

You'd know because they can explain the other side's position in terms that the other side recognizes as accurate, rather than a strawman - and then explain what they believe is mistaken about it.

If you're really right, you shouldn't have to strawman your opponent's position in order to show that you're right.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#77
post #19
post #8

It's getting closer and closer to a no-deal, and yet the pound doesn't really go down. Does anybody understand why?

Why should it? I think a no-deal should make it go up.

Because a no-deal exit would do lasting damage to the British economy (this is a fairly uncontroversial point even among Brexit proponents), and a nation's currency tends to track its economy.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#78

I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?

I liked this explanation: https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1072222230791229440?l...

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#79

I've said this before so I'll ask this again- I'm an American and I'm entirely ignorant on UK politics. I've followed the headlines and I am still confused why Brexit is happening. It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all. I do not understand why not call the entire Brexit thing off; why is that political suicide?

> It seems no one wants Brexit as it has been suggested by the political leadership of UK, and the majority want to avoid no deal at all.

There's basically two big stumbling blocks:

The first is that there has to be a customs check between either: (1) The EU/Republic of Ireland , (2) ROI and Northern Ireland, or (3) Northern Ireland and Britain (the island).

(1) is unacceptable to the EU. (2) breaks the Good Friday agreement and could reignite violence in Ireland. (3) is unacceptable to the Northern Ireland political party propping up the government.

The second is that from the perspective of the EU, Britain has to get a worse deal by leaving the EU than what they had when they were in it. Otherwise, every other country sees that it's better to be out than in and the EU risks collapse.

These are more or less intractable problems. I'm sure we've all had the experience where an IT project is obviously doomed but nobody wants the responsibility and blame for pulling the plug. That's where Brexit is today.

Re: Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal by 149 votes

#80
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you personally think that the UK will actually end up leaving the EU in 10 days? If yes, what are the chances of that happening?

It's not impossible, but probably not. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance. There's a clear majority of MP's who don't want a No Deal scenario. Most likely there will be a postponement of some kind, but probably a short one. What happens at the end of that period is entirely unclear at this point. Leaving without a deal is still a distinct possibility, but probably not the most likely one. I'd give about even odds to some…

There's a lot of politicians who have been very happy criticising every "what do we do now" proposal, without having any constructive alternatives. Even a general election wouldn't really help, as it would force MPs to say what they DO actually want, which the majority of them have been avoiding as far as possible.

On a topic this controversial, MPs love being allowed to vote "no" to everything, but hate being forced to commit to anything constructive - anything they say will be unpopular with some of their constituency, and likely lose them votes. It will be very interesting to see what happens as their ability to criticise without offering alternatives gets closer to being taken away.

This is particularly true of Brexit, as significant numbers of both major parties voted for and against it, so neither party can avoid angering lots of people who would normally vote for them no matter what they do.

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