EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone • Hacker News Board

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#171

Post by Silhouette » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:34 PM UTC

mcintyre1994 wrote: post #127

Silhouette wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily, because there could (almost almost certainly would) be rules of origin involved. These trade deals reduce or eliminate trade barriers to a useful degree, but they aren't as all-encompassing as full membership of the EU.

This is also why countries like Japan and Canada are expressing they'll carry over deals with no changes, and British politicians are really disingenous to say that'd work fine. If the rule is say 60% has to be from the EU to be eligible, and it's 40% UK and 60% EU, then keeping that rule will make it ineligible in a UK bilateral deal. So things could become a lot more one sided with no changes to the actual deal.

Indeed. Even directly derived agreements surely won't be concluded overnight, because there will be numerical issues about quotes, rules of origin and the like that will need to be reinterpreted to still make sense. Related concerns arise about the UK operating independently under WTO rules but trying to "inherit" the previous EU tariff schedules.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#172

Post by ThomPete » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:34 PM UTC

Lowering tarifs in general are good but my bet is that this is not really going to mean that much.

This is only good for big corporations. For the rest it's bureaucrazy (pun intended) and frankly won't have that big of an impact no matter how big it is.

Neither the EU nor the Japan are able to drive the market in any significant way. So it's great for Siemens but won't really matter to the little startup.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#173

Post by CountSessine » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:40 PM UTC

max76 wrote: post #136

"For the first time, the trade agreement includes countries' Paris climate deal commitments." This is a brilliant answer to the tragedy of the commons. Often times people ask why they should make great efforts to be more environmentally friendly when other groups are not. This creates multiparty incentives attached to real economic benefits to keep their word on climate change. I hope The US, China, and Russia all en…

William Nordhaus, winner of the 2018 Nobel prize in economics, advocated for this, calling such agreements "Climate Clubs"

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.15000001

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#174

Post by noir_lord » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:41 PM UTC

NeedMoreTea wrote: post #132

noir_lord wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just old enough to remember the IRA blowing thing up in the late 80's and nineties on the mainland. I don't think any sane person wants to go back to mortar attacks on Westminster. It seems strange how we dealt with the ever present threat of the IRA differently to the threat of Islamist terrorism. Yet in terms of casualties the IRA killed more people more regularly.

Me too, I was working in Docklands when there was the bombing [1]. First time I ever saw an armed policeman in a mainland UK street. Forget pistol, they were wielding MP5s. > threat of the IRA differently to the threat of Islamist terrorism Fully agree. The overreaction has been extreme. I don't understand why the political reaction hasn't been more like it was. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Docklands_bombin…

I have a theory that during the cold warn western democracies behaved better towards their own people because they had a 'bad guy's to compare against.

A sort of 'would they do this in East Germany? Then maybe we shouldnt' yardstick.

Also I think a lot of the over reaction to terrorism is just a power/land grab by the intelligence services, I mean they do valuable work but we don't really know how much and what the net benefit of any is.

The leaks have been egregious fairly consistently though.

Snowden has my respect for confirming what a lot of us techies suspected but couldn't prove.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#175

Post by Silhouette » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:41 PM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #170

Silhouette wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that between the UK and Ireland there is a CTA, common travel agreement. Yes there is, and it has existed since long before the EU or its predecessors existed. This means frictionless border crossing between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. No, it means that citizens from either side are allowed to cross the border by default. Production of some basic ID documents may still be required. Chec…

The EU membership predates the GFA too. The GFA was able to be out in place in part thanks to the existence of both the CTA and the EU. Do you think that if it worked the way you thought it did, there would be such a furore over the situation? I'm not saying UK MPs are the smartest bunch of people but if Brexit would leave the GFA untouched then surely they would have worked that out by now. Perhaps you are wrong.

My honest opinion is that the NI/Ireland border is an important issue, and the GFA is an important agreement, but they are not the only important issue and the only important agreement. I think Brexit is a divisive issue, and as a matter of political convenience a certain part of the political world and the public have latched onto the Irish border issue to the exclusion of almost all other considerations, with the effect that the tail has been wagging the dog. And I think this has closed minds and has adversely affected the negotiations and will ultimately result in worse outcomes for all parties, perhaps most of all those living and working near the NI/Ireland border. I find all of this deeply regrettable.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#176

Post by notahacker » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:46 PM UTC

Tomte wrote: post #3

"The service market will be opened, including financial services" This is going to make the UK mad. But apart from that, wasn't there the position that services cannot be part of a trade deal?

There's the EU position that full and equal access to the services market is dependent on also allowing free movement of people, and the fairly standard EU position that foreign companies' access to its services market must depend on them following standards harmonised with EU law.

The former is a sticking point for the UK achieving the same level of services access before, the latter an impediment to a UK government ratifying many other plausible trade agreements that would oblige the UK to mirror various EU corporate regulations, restrictions on state aid for some of its larger companies etc without being accused of "betraying Brexit" and "taking orders from Brussels".

Also beyond the formally stated positions, the EU has to consider whether not opening up certain areas of its services sector to UK competition might be beneficial or harmful to its Member States, and it might take the view that not allowing London to retain dominance in various financial services and insurance markets would be a very good thing for some European financial centres.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#177

Post by Silhouette » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:51 PM UTC

growlist wrote: post #144

celticninja wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you from the UK? The point is that between the UK and Ireland there is a CTA, common travel agreement. This means frictionless border crossing between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. This was straightforward when both were EU members as the border didn't need to be policed for transfer of goods. If the UK leaves the EU then goods from the UK cannot just be moved into the Republic of Ireland if there…

The UK doesn't have to put anything up. If the EU/Ireland choose to, that's kind of their problem.

The UK doesn't have to put anything up.

While that is technically true, it is practically false. If the UK reverts to trading on WTO terms, at least initially, the Most Favoured Nation principle essentially says that we have to trade with all other nations on an equal basis unless we make a comprehensive trade deal with someone. So if we let down the barriers and remove all restrictions at the Irish border, we are basically required to let down the equivalent barriers trading with anyone else at any border. That is not a sustainable policy.

In practice, if we have a hard Brexit with no big deal agreed at the end of March, I would expect both the UK and the EU/EU27 to make unilateral arrangements to protect their own people and businesses in the immediate aftermath and mitigate the likely negative effects as much as possible until better arrangements can be made. This is likely to include both the UK and Ireland declining to build new border infrastructure and turning a blind eye to any border crossings that would technically become illegal. But the EU would put great pressure on Ireland to address that issue quickly since any Irish border is also an EU border, and both the UK and Ireland would be subject to complaints at WTO level about the favourable treatment, which would take a considerable time to resolve but would inevitably result in some form of enforcement action if the issue was not addressed (which it surely would be to avoid that outcome, but the UK and Ireland would have bought themselves significant extra time by bending/breaking the rules until that point).

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#178

Post by kalleboo » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:52 PM UTC

Tomte wrote: post #128

pastor_elm wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would the Japanese need from the EU besides Airbus planes. Looks like a one-way street to me.

Food. The EU is an agricultural juggernaut, and Japan has very dense megacities with mountain ranges in between. Not the best situation for self-sufficiency. Fortunately, they make highly sought-after electronic products and cars, which can be exchanged for food.

Until now the Japanese agricultural lobby has also been very strong and kept prices of stuff like rice and dairy products (butter, cheese etc) artificially high. This appears to break that.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#179

Post by entity345 » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:53 PM UTC

afrisch wrote: post #24

growlist wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So then it IS apparently possible to have a free trade zone without freedom of movement.

Of course. As a matter of fact, UK was never part of the Schengen Area.

Schengen Area is not the same as freedom of movement.

Re: EU and Japan create world's biggest free trade zone

#180

Post by x220 » Fri, Feb 01, 2019, 5:53 PM UTC

TorKlingberg wrote: post #22

Japan has avoided the madness of tariffs and trade wars that has affected the west recently. Instead they have been quietly negotiating trade deals with everyone and generally getting along. Good on them! Also it includes cheese, which will make westerners in Japan very happy.

>Also it includes cheese

One of the best international treaties I've heard of