Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 102 posts

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#81

Post by defertoreptar »

TomMckenny wrote: post #80
defertoreptar wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least. In 2016, for the first time in a while, the middle class grew (in the USA, anyway): https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/12/news/economy/middle-class/i... . Also, we're seeing real median incomes that we haven't seen for over 20 years: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231615-november-2018-media...

Those trends began 2011 not 2016. But it's nice the preliminary data shows they may be continuing. But inequality continues to grow at an alarming rate with almost all economic growth going to asset value not wages. Likewise, the cost for necessary goods such as housing, medicine etc far out pace wages.

> Those trends began 2011 not 2016.

I'm not sure I'd call that totally accurate. Real wages have been increasing since the Great Recession turned around. That's true. However, it is continuing to increase past the point of previous highs. The middle class inflex happened in 2016, although there doesn't seem to be data since then.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#82

Post by avatar33 »

Animats wrote: post #73

As is typical of such articles, this is written from the point of view of a central bank. Low inflation is only a problem to central banks. Central bankers are bothered by low inflation because they can't cut interest rates below zero. The US and Europe inject money into the economy by having the central banks loan it out to commercial banks, who then loan it out at a profit. That's not the only way to do things. Jap…

You mean a sensible reform like reduce immigration or link immigration to unemployment numbers or normalized wage growth?

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#84

Post by bitxbitxbitcoin »

defertoreptar wrote: post #78
jlarocco wrote: post #26

"That helps explain why American workers’ wages have been rising relatively slowly despite a low unemployment rate." Wouldn't surprise me if that's a big part of the problem. Despite tax cuts, low interest rates, and other corporate handouts, nothing's getting passed onto the people who do most of the spending. Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least.

> Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least. In 2016, for the first time in a while, the middle class grew (in the USA, anyway): https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/12/news/economy/middle-class/i... . Also, we're seeing real median incomes that we haven't seen for over 20 years: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231615-november-2018-media...

The middle class growing isn't mutually exclusive with inequality (GINI coefficient) getting worse.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#85

Post by wav-part »

shoo wrote: post #77
wolfram74 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This physicist has done a number of blogs on physical restraints on economic growth. https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist... For example, if economic growth persists black body ration independent of power source raises the surface temperature of the earth to boiling in a few hundred years.

this link is _fantastic_ , thank you for sharing it, i haven't heard this argument before . First: For a given constant T > 0 there exists C > 0 such that Temp(earth) > Right, if you plot the U.S. energy consumption in all forms from 1650 until > now, you see a phenomenally faithful exponential at about 3% per year over > that whole span. The situation for the whole world is similar. So how long > do you think we mig…

We do not consume energy. We consume goods and services which require energy to produce. This model completely ignores past and future advancments in energy efficieny.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#86

Post by lotsofpulp »

shaki-dora wrote: post #15
dijit wrote: post #6

So, I have a question and it may seem like a childish or stupid one because I think I've missed something somewhere. Our society, and I think capitalism in general, seems to be pinned on the foundation of perpetual growth. The question for me is: how can we have infinite growth on a planet with limited resources?

While economic output has historically correlated with ressource usage, there is nothing that requires such a link. For energy, this is called “energy intensity”, and we already see it stagnating, and energy being sourced from infinite (renewable) resources rather than fossil fuels. The same can happen with materials: there is definitely enough iron and brick and glass and cobalt on this planet to enable everyone to…

Consumption also turns into a way to show status to attract mates, and one of the most resource consuming activities, traveling, is currently in vogue for those who have attained housing and food security.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#87

Post by defertoreptar »

bitxbitxbitcoin wrote: post #84
defertoreptar wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least. In 2016, for the first time in a while, the middle class grew (in the USA, anyway): https://money.cnn.com/2018/04/12/news/economy/middle-class/i... . Also, we're seeing real median incomes that we haven't seen for over 20 years: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231615-november-2018-media...

The middle class growing isn't mutually exclusive with inequality (GINI coefficient) getting worse.

Growing the middle class raises the Lorenz curve in the center. That, in turn, lowers the GINI coefficient.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#88

Post by dijit »

shoo wrote: post #79
dijit wrote: post #6

So, I have a question and it may seem like a childish or stupid one because I think I've missed something somewhere. Our society, and I think capitalism in general, seems to be pinned on the foundation of perpetual growth. The question for me is: how can we have infinite growth on a planet with limited resources?

> how can we have infinite growth on a planet with limited resources? I find it sad but unsurprising that a reasonable question like this attracts a bunch of downvotes here. I heartily recommend Higgs' book "Collision Course" -- it doesn't provide solutions about how to get ourselves out of the mess that we're in, but it does provide a lot of historical evidence explaining how much public thought and speech around ec…

Thanks for the recommendation, from the quotes that seems like the exact thing to fill my knowledge gap.

:)

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#89

Post by FranzFerdiNaN »

zozbot123 wrote: post #62
jlarocco wrote: post #26

"That helps explain why American workers’ wages have been rising relatively slowly despite a low unemployment rate." Wouldn't surprise me if that's a big part of the problem. Despite tax cuts, low interest rates, and other corporate handouts, nothing's getting passed onto the people who do most of the spending. Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, a low unemployment rate is a lot more important to workers' overall incomes than a rise in wages (given typical variation in both). This is also why high real wages are so damaging when they lead to higher involuntary unemployment: they actively rob those who are most in need of their rightful incomes! It's why recessions make people angry and anxious for "something to be done", whatever…

amazing how you put the blame on workers for unemployment instead of on corporations being greedy vampires sucking the life out of everything in the pursuit of ever more shareholder value.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#90

Post by jlarocco »

defertoreptar wrote: post #87
bitxbitxbitcoin wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The middle class growing isn't mutually exclusive with inequality (GINI coefficient) getting worse.

Growing the middle class raises the Lorenz curve in the center. That, in turn, lowers the GINI coefficient.

It can lower the GINI, but it hasn't been. GINI's been increasing for decades, and was still increasing as of 2016: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA
Post reply on HN