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The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

nytimes.com

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Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#21

Post by toomuchtodo »

theptip wrote: post #9
flavius29663 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think about it, a lot of the arabian/russian/corupt oligarchs money from oil were spent in ludicrous ways, like luxury beyond belief. The economy is getting less value from a fracked barrel, but those money are spent more wisely, returning back into the industry. This is not just sticking a pipe in the ground anymore, we are advancing our tech by using fracking. This is a new economic engine, maybe it's not as…

It's an interesting thought; I think you'd also have to look at the absolute dollar amounts of "luxury spend vs. capital/research reinvestment" to get the full picture. (Since the actual benefits accrued to society are proportional to the absolute spend on R&D). Also, is R&D in fracking transferable? Or is it just tech that will be irrelevant in 20-30 years? (I don't have a good picture on this one; I could see a rea…

I can't imagine fracking is too transferable unless there's some other easily flowing substance you want to get out of the ground besides water, oil, or natural gas.

EDIT: It might be useful for enabling greater storage density of CO2 in rock formations if we attempt to sequester CO2 out of the atmosphere at scale: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-co2-underground-curb-carbon-em...

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#23

Post by toomuchtodo »

scottlocklin wrote: post #10
mrfusion wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technology? Well not infinite but up to the point of a dyson sphere.

What massive efficiencies have technology brought us lately? I count ... fracking as a real improvement. That's it!

Electricity from utility scale solar PV and wind turbines cost ~2 cents/kwh. That's orders of magnitude decline over the last 15 years.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#26

Post by jlarocco »

"That helps explain why American workers’ wages have been rising relatively slowly despite a low unemployment rate."

Wouldn't surprise me if that's a big part of the problem.

Despite tax cuts, low interest rates, and other corporate handouts, nothing's getting passed onto the people who do most of the spending. Inequality is higher than ever and the people making the most money need it the least.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#27

Post by toufiqbarhamov »

xiphias2 wrote: post #19
scottlocklin wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What massive efficiencies have technology brought us lately? I count ... fracking as a real improvement. That's it!

Internet? You know you wouldn't be able to take part in this debate without it. I wasn't able to read so many interesting things 20 years ago, and I was behind in everything because I wasn't born at the right place in the world.

The internet is probably older than you are. A lot of the “exciting new tech” is a mature or market-ready form of technology that has been around since the Cold War or much earlier. There is also a lot of very old tech that is “new” only by virtue of having a microcontroller stuck in, much in the same way an IoT device is often just Device X + Network connection.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#28

Post by nabla9 »

dijit wrote: post #6

So, I have a question and it may seem like a childish or stupid one because I think I've missed something somewhere. Our society, and I think capitalism in general, seems to be pinned on the foundation of perpetual growth. The question for me is: how can we have infinite growth on a planet with limited resources?

Increasing productivity can increase the output while other factors of production stay the same.

Reducing material intensity and energy intensity allows growth under material and energy constraints.

If population starts to decline, you can continue increasing GDP/capita even in material terms. Although in practice I think reduced demand from population decline is bigger issue than material resources.

Re: The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut

#30

Post by ggm »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #21
theptip wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an interesting thought; I think you'd also have to look at the absolute dollar amounts of "luxury spend vs. capital/research reinvestment" to get the full picture. (Since the actual benefits accrued to society are proportional to the absolute spend on R&D). Also, is R&D in fracking transferable? Or is it just tech that will be irrelevant in 20-30 years? (I don't have a good picture on this one; I could see a rea…

I can't imagine fracking is too transferable unless there's some other easily flowing substance you want to get out of the ground besides water, oil, or natural gas. EDIT: It might be useful for enabling greater storage density of CO2 in rock formations if we attempt to sequester CO2 out of the atmosphere at scale: https://phys.org/news/2018-11-co2-underground-curb-carbon-em...

Fracking is important in geothermal. An experimental form uses drilling to dry hot rocks and injection of water (even waste water or grey water) to produce steam.

Destructive uses of aquifers may mean we need skills in underground water table remediation. I don't think fracking directly helps (I think it hinders) but we're going to need to understand how to use it to fix things as well as extract things.

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