Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

What Is Going to Happen in 2019

avc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 112 posts

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#101

Post by ThomPete »

hannasanarion wrote: post #98
ThomPete wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't make it false either. The blockchain is a protocol, not a company. The TCP/IP protocol was decades old before it became useful to build companies on top of exactly because it required A LOT of networked connectivity, people to make various investments and critical mass from users. Give it time.

In the early days of TCPIP, you needed a university membership to get access, and network-capable computers were even more rare. So you're saying that there aren't enough networked computers for blockchain to be viable? We're currently sitting at around 8 networked devices for every human being, how many more do we need? 15? 20? What is holding blockchain back, since it is definitely not university membership?

No.

I am saying that there aren't enough cryptocurrencies and thus the network is not pervasive enough to become infrastructure plus it's still mostly academic and you need to understand it conceptually to start making sense of it.

Most people don't even most of those who are involved in it.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#102

Post by dkrich »

There is very little evidence that markets care much at all about what happens in Washington. If Trump resigns or doesn't it is very unlikely to have a lasting effect on equity prices. There's lots of evidence to back this up. When JFK was assassinated for example, equity prices rose in the weeks after. This does not suggest that the equity markets didn't like JFK necessarily, but rather that equity markets were primed to move higher and even extreme uncertainty around the presidency wasn't enough to alter their course. Prices are going to go where they are going to go. It makes some people happy to imagine markets disliking Trump, but the truth is they don't really care who is president, they only care about whether earnings are going to go up or down in the future, and the president just doesn't have much control over that save for tax rates which have already been accounted for in this administration.

The Fed is far more likely to impact equity markets, but I think far too many (Wilson included) are too focused on the trend in rates without any consideration at all for the relative level of rates historically. It is true that a rising trend in rates is usually bearish for stocks, BUT it's very important to understand the trend in a broader context. Rates are still extremely low in a historical context and if the Fed pauses in 2019 and employment and consumer spending remain strong, stocks aren't likely to drop much more simply because 3% is not a satisfactory return for most people unless you are nearing retirement. So where else are you going to park your money? Probably stocks. Also, a company like Apple isn't going to be drastically effected by marginally higher rates when they were already close to zero. Sure, their cost of capital might go up by a quarter a percent. Is that really going to move the needle on their earnings significantly? Other companies that aren't profitable and heavily reliant on debt probably will be hurt, though.

Here's what I believe is happening: the Fed did a very poor job of communicating its position and intent in late 2018 (probably because they themselves didn't know what they were going to do) and spooked the markets by saying they were going to hike several times in 2019. They then walked this back but the markets are still a bit uneasy. Sentiment always follows price, and now that prices have fallen and volatility has spiked, what are the pundits doing? Predicting price declines and higher volatility! Well, that's already happened so if you are selling stocks now and paying up for VIX calls, you're probably late to the party. In early 2018, most pundits were saying to buy stocks.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#103

Post by srcmap »

beat wrote: post #48
logicchains wrote: post #13

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

"THE relevant statistic" (emphasis mine) is also misleading. Lots of different things measure development. It's not surprising that China is seeing some slowdown in growth, as they climb that curve. Jumping from $50 to $100 is easier than jumping from $5000 to $10,000. Or another way, a 10% growth rate at $1000 requires increasing revenue by $100. At $10,000, it means increasing by $1000. On top of that, China is an…

Agree with your comments.

Adding few other points:

* China's new infrastructures are good and modern. (+)

* Education system is reasonable - produce large number of engineers, college educated young people. (+)

* Entrepreneurial spirits/activities are very high in a lot of cities. (+)

* The new roads system are mostly build/own with private money and adding non-trivial cost to the normal business when they need to transport goods. As compare to the highway system in the US. (-)

* The society is NOT govern by the rule of law. It is govern by the will of the Party and who ever is in power. As shown recently by the some famous actors, actress go fine massive amount because of tax issues. The new rules show up one day can cause the majority movie industry disappear in a few weeks. (-)

* The housing bubble is a big issue similar to what happen to Japan 20+ years ago. (-)

* The debt in private industries and local government are BIG issue. (-)

* The central government has recently created new much stricter rules about people (local/business ) taking the money out of China. It looks good on the surface for majority of population when present as rich people's issue. But imagine a bank allow for deposit but only allow for redraw of $100 per day. With that kind of policy, no business would trust a country enough to do new or continue investments.

  * The old reformer (DengXiaoPeng)'s believe:  It doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat, if it can catch a mouse, it is a good cat.


  * The new believe:   Those black/write cats who turn into fat cats have served their purposes.    It is harvest time.....
 

  * Overall, it don't look good for China in near/long term.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#104

Post by thatoneuser »

paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

Yeah predicting we won’t have trump as president at the end of the year has lost its meaning. It’s been a recurring message since before he even took office and it’s failed every step of the way to be the reality.

To me it seems pretty unlikely that there’s a bulletproof case to actually remove trump from office. In two years we basically have the same sentiments that trump was involved in illegal activity that we did back in 2016. I’d hope our government wasn’t so broken that it would take 3/4 of a term to get someone out. I remember a lot of the right saying the same with Obama getting impeached, while he enjoyed a full two terms.

At the end of the day the impeachment cries seem much more like wishful thinking on behalf of the party not in power than a realistic outcome.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#105

Post by thatoneuser »

ThomPete wrote: post #64
skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grand…

The thing is I’ve never seen a compelling and novel use for blockchain. Everyone and their dog has some shiny presentation for how they’ll use the tech, but no one and I literally mean - no one - who I’ve talked to about it has an answer for the question “how is blockchain solving a problem that is currently unsolvable with other tech?”

Don’t get me wrong, the idea of decentralized anything is cool to me. I’d love for it to be an avenue for reclaiming sovereignty or privacy or whatever else. I just have yet to see it actually solve a new problem. And switching from the way things are to using blockchain “just cuz” isn’t really a step forward imho. It’s a step sideways, where now we have a different backend but in the end nothing has improved.

I’d be happy to hear novel solutions blockchain provides :)

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#106

Post by ThomPete »

thatoneuser wrote: post #105
ThomPete wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run. Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies. Our parents/grand…

The thing is I’ve never seen a compelling and novel use for blockchain. Everyone and their dog has some shiny presentation for how they’ll use the tech, but no one and I literally mean - no one - who I’ve talked to about it has an answer for the question “how is blockchain solving a problem that is currently unsolvable with other tech?” Don’t get me wrong, the idea of decentralized anything is cool to me. I’d love fo…

You've seen plenty of compelling uses for blockchains it's just that you haven't seen any which could only be done using the blockchain.

I always think about the blockchain as TCP/IP with history. Plenty of value in that.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#107

Post by pier25 »

cor87nowmg wrote: post #89
pier25 wrote: post #84

As a European I hope Trump will be impeached or he will renounce. It's the only way the US will regain any trust from other countries. For the average citizen Trump is the only image of the US they get on the news which is not very flattering.

I hope it's proved that Trump didn't do anything substantially wrong. Then - instead of the world having to have overcome some terrible problem - I would only have to overcome the shame of having made a mistake. And I've been mistaken many times.

I recommend everyone to watch the documentary "Active Measures".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WnYi3T78Ag

Trump has been having business with the Russian mafia for decades.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#109

Post by logicchains »

srcmap wrote: post #103
beat wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"THE relevant statistic" (emphasis mine) is also misleading. Lots of different things measure development. It's not surprising that China is seeing some slowdown in growth, as they climb that curve. Jumping from $50 to $100 is easier than jumping from $5000 to $10,000. Or another way, a 10% growth rate at $1000 requires increasing revenue by $100. At $10,000, it means increasing by $1000. On top of that, China is an…

Agree with your comments. Adding few other points: * China's new infrastructures are good and modern. (+) * Education system is reasonable - produce large number of engineers, college educated young people. (+) * Entrepreneurial spirits/activities are very high in a lot of cities. (+) * The new roads system are mostly build/own with private money and adding non-trivial cost to the normal business when they need to tr…

>As shown recently by the some famous actors, actress go fine massive amount because of tax issues.

To be fair, she only got a fine and detention for a few months. US actor Wesley Snipes was jailed for 3 years for tax evasion.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#110

Post by logicchains »

product50 wrote: post #54
logicchains wrote: post #13

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

Why are you expecting China to grow till it achieves per person GDP parity? What is the logic for that? Do you realize that if China ppp rises that the very factors that makes China such a growing force such as cheaper manufacturing will erode away?

Why wouldn't it? Other majority Chinese countries have, e.g. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, as have Korea and Japan.
Post reply on HN