Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

What Is Going to Happen in 2019

avc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 112 posts

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#71

Post by SlowRobotAhead »

jsutton wrote: post #27
stevespang wrote: post #4

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

The case against Clinton was flimsy and grasping at straws, whereas the case against Trump looks to be incredibly damning. I think that'll make a difference this time, though party lines have become even more ingrained...

Clinton lied under oath. That wasn’t flimsy, it was fact.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#72

Post by jki275 »

ianai wrote: post #65
jki275 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That gives them the ability to functionally accomplish nothing, so it doesn't move the needle at all.

The majority in the house gains the chairman seats in all of the committees. We will see subpoena power used by democrats to investigate and ultimately inform the public on many things which the house republicans buried or ignored. Elections have consequences. My personal, political hope is that the democrats try to be productive with the republicans in Congress and the White House - but of course maximizing the resu…

The house, by itself, can do nothing but gridlock. They can subpoena all day long and it won't make any difference in anything. Neither party has a monopoly on burying things, and anyone who decides to not play by the rules is going to get destroyed by both sides -- your hope of some kind of transparency by the democrats is badly misplaced.

I personally don't mind gridlock that badly -- none of them have the best interests of the people in mind, so the less they're able to accomplish the better.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#73

Post by devy »

gadders wrote: post #57
paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well. I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.

Technically, Fred Wilson is based in New York though.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#74

Post by lesss365 »

gadders wrote: post #57
paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well. I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.

Here's your chance

https://www.predictit.org

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#76

Post by takanori »

So many people and content sites put out menaingless predictions that there is no consequence of being wrong on. Unless the author has sufficient skin in the game, for example they take a short position on the S&P to back up the predicted drop we as readers should not put much credence in “prediction listicles.”

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#77

Post by iak8god »

lesss365 wrote: post #74
gadders wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well. I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.

Here's your chance https://www.predictit.org

Specifically, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3352/Will-Donald-Tr...

Currently about 73% yes

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#78

Post by notacoward »

nailer wrote: post #35
altairiumblue wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the Mueller report, so far, has uncovered No, it hasn't. There has been no report.

I've corrected my comment to say 'investigation' instead. The point still stands as I'm sure you're aware.

No, it really doesn't. The indictments that come out before the full report are the cast-offs. The things they happened to find that were tangential to the main investigation, or were separated (and deemed safe to separate) for a plea bargain, etc. Their number tells us far more about the security and discretion around the main investigation than about the severity of what it has found.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#79

Post by llao »

lesss365 wrote: post #74
gadders wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I came here to say exactly the same thing. I'd be happy to stick money down on Trump still being in power by the end of 2019. And probably by the end of 2024 as well. I think it's an example of a Silicon Valley filter bubble.

Here's your chance https://www.predictit.org

Wow, I haven't heard about that site before. Was ready to bash it for being yet another get-rich-quick Cryptocoin scam but it is actual real money (I believe?) and an academic project:

> PredictIt is a research project of Victoria University of Wellington. In order to take full advantage of the research opportunities presented by prediction markets like PredictIt, we make our data available to members of the academic community at no cost. PredictIt’s market data offers researchers a wealth of information that can be used to further our understanding of a wide array of subjects in fields of study as diverse as microeconomics, political behavior, computer science and game theory. PredictIt is excited to support the work of our researcher partners as they push the boundaries of human knowledge.

Post reply on HN