What Is Going to Happen in 2019 • Hacker News Board

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#21

Post by monkeynotes » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:01 PM UTC

weinzierl wrote: post #2

> The eurozone is about to go through the most significant change in decades with some sort of departure of the UK from the EU (Brexit). It remains unclear exactly how this will happen, which in and of itself is creating a lot of uncertainty on the Continent. I don’t expect most businesses in Europe to do anything but play defense in 2019. Of all the things said in the post this stands out to me as the only overly pe…

> I don't expect this state of affairs to drag on through the whole of 2019

Seriously?? The exit is so incredibly complex I can foresee the ramifications dragging into decades. The border problems alone are going to be a political quagmire, to view this sort of thing is a 12 month trifle is short-sighted to say the least.

The exit will split the country in half, how on earth can you have 'clarity' when there is basically zero bi-partisan agreement politically and socially?

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#22

Post by em500 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:04 PM UTC

mcv wrote: post #10

srge wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There still could be impact on trade, especially if we have a no-deal brexit.

It will have impact on trade, but that's still more an issue for the EU as a whole rather than the Eurozone specifically. I consider it a typo; the author clearly meant the EU, but wrote Eurozone for some reason. I can't entirely blame them; the many European treaties are a complicated mess.

Wikipedia has this handy overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bo...

Unfortunately as a citizen of one of the founding members of the EU, I don't even recognise half the flags in the diagram.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#23

Post by jki275 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:04 PM UTC

mywittyname wrote: post #9

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

Democrats will control 54% of the next House. So his prediction is much more likely in 2019 than in any previous years. There's no reason to think this is based on politically-motivated wishful thinking.

That gives them the ability to functionally accomplish nothing, so it doesn't move the needle at all.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#24

Post by altairiumblue » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:07 PM UTC

nailer wrote: post #19

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

I would have voted for Clinton (if I were able to, and Bernie wasn't available). But the Mueller investigation, so far, has uncovered: Trump's lawyer evading some taxes. With all that effort and such minor results it's not looking like they're going to find much.

> But the Mueller report, so far, has uncovered

No, it hasn't. There has been no report.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#25

Post by fireattack » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:07 PM UTC

Just FYI: lots of images in this article don't show on my end.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#26

Post by swarnie_ » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:09 PM UTC

em500 wrote: post #22

mcv wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will have impact on trade, but that's still more an issue for the EU as a whole rather than the Eurozone specifically. I consider it a typo; the author clearly meant the EU, but wrote Eurozone for some reason. I can't entirely blame them; the many European treaties are a complicated mess.

Wikipedia has this handy overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bo... Unfortunately as a citizen of one of the founding members of the EU, I don't even recognise half the flags in the diagram.

Top right quarter of that image... I can name maybe two flags and that's only from European sports, the rest are actually a mystery.

Give me the names and i'm sure i would know them, ask me to point them out on a blank map and we're straying back in to embarrassing territory again.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#27

Post by jsutton » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:09 PM UTC

stevespang wrote: post #4

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

The case against Clinton was flimsy and grasping at straws, whereas the case against Trump looks to be incredibly damning. I think that'll make a difference this time, though party lines have become even more ingrained...

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#28

Post by ed_balls » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:09 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #13

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

PPP per capita is a better metric, but far from ideal.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#29

Post by triviatise » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:11 PM UTC

predictit has trump getting impeached by end of 2019 at 36 cents for yes. If mueller finds any "collusion" it is guaranteed impeachment. Old crimes possibly not.

So predictit at least disagrees that mueller finds collusion.

And as always if you are absolutely certain that mueller will find collusion, you can make some money. Put your money where your mouth is.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#30

Post by skywhopper » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 3:11 PM UTC

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’s primary use case is in _facilitating_ the destabilization of existing economic infrastructure. That’s its explicit goal! So it’s weird that someone so heavily invested in it thinks it’ll be a savior of society. But then again the author operates in a different economy than the rest of us... he’ll probably be just fine.