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What Is Going to Happen in 2019

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Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#61

Post by jki275 »

altairiumblue wrote: post #55
nailer wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've corrected my comment to say 'investigation' instead. The point still stands as I'm sure you're aware.

[flagged]

Almost all the indictments have been for process crimes, not for anything substantive. Essentially anyone who speaks to federal LE can be indicted for lying to federal LE, regardless of their intent. What little substantive they've come up with looks petty and ridiculous in comparison to normal operating procedure in DC -- you realize they're all criminals on both sides of the aisle, right?

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#62

Post by thomnottom »

termie wrote: post #52
thomnottom wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clinton was impeached.

..by the Republican majority House of Representatives. It can be roughly equated to being charged with a crime. The Senate held a trial and voted for acquittal and therefore no action was taken. Two thirds of the Senate must vote to remove a President from office.

Correct. But the OP was stating that impeachment would never happen and pointing to what happened with Clinton. But impeachment is exactly what happened with Clinton. And the prediction does not state that he will be removed from office by the Senate, but that he will resign after impeachment to avoid prosecution. This is an entirely reasonable prediction based upon current and historical events.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#63

Post by gfodor »

beat wrote: post #56
gfodor wrote: post #51

Guessing the direction of interest rates and speculation about supposed crimes the president did (for which at this point there has been no evidence of) is a pretty poor foundation to build predictions upon since there's a good chance rates stay flat in 2019 and Mueller comes up empty. In that scenario, the stock market still has downward pressure because of the insane valuations, but the storm clouds outlined here f…

Actually, there's a lot of evidence for "supposed crimes of the president". Some of his closest advisors (Cohen, Flynn, Manafort) have been convicted of felonies. All of them have cooperated to some degree with Mueller. The fact that Mueller asked for no prison for Flynn says a great deal about how valuable Flynn's testimony has been. Who else would Flynn be testifying against that's so important to Mueller that he'd…

I was referring to specific evidence that implies crimes were committed by Trump. So far, no such evidence has been revealed. Pointing to felony guilty pleas for unrelated crimes (except, perhaps, the Cohen campaign finance violation which gave him 6 months of his several year sentence and which arguably may have not been upheld in court) is just guilt-by-association and does not constitute evidence of an unseen crime. I'm perfectly happy to be proven wrong once the report comes out, and I hope that the results are plain as day in either direction, but if you think there has been any objective evidence uncovered by the press or leaked of a real crime being committed then you should also check your political bias. It may exist but it hasn't been made public.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#64

Post by ThomPete »

skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

While I agree there is a lot of BS in the crypto world I think we are dealing with a classic case of overestimating in the short run and underestimating in the long run.

Instead of starting with decentralization in your thinking and then trying to find value through that, start instead with de-institutionalization. The potential of crypto is not the individual currency but the network of currencies.

Our parents/grandparents invented the internet but didn't find ways to turn it into what it is today. Our generation invented the blockchain but it will be our kids who will end up turning it into valuable infrastructure. They will not be limited to understanding and applying it like we do but be able to think about it from a "born blockchain" perspective.

We keep trying to think how we can use it for things we already have solutions for which is of course not really going to do much. Instead we have to think about things that we don't have solutions for and which can't be done easily.

CryptoKitties is one of the best examples of how this can be used and if you think that is silly then you are right so are many other ideas that end up turning into amazing businesses.

So I say, let a million cryptocurrencies bloom it's the network itself that's the utility not the individual currency.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#65

Post by ianai »

jki275 wrote: post #23
mywittyname wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Democrats will control 54% of the next House. So his prediction is much more likely in 2019 than in any previous years. There's no reason to think this is based on politically-motivated wishful thinking.

That gives them the ability to functionally accomplish nothing, so it doesn't move the needle at all.

The majority in the house gains the chairman seats in all of the committees. We will see subpoena power used by democrats to investigate and ultimately inform the public on many things which the house republicans buried or ignored. Elections have consequences.

My personal, political hope is that the democrats try to be productive with the republicans in Congress and the White House - but of course maximizing the results of their leverage on the process. Unfortunately, there’s not much room for optimism from how the republicans denied cooperation with the democrats during the last administration.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#67

Post by SlowRobotAhead »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #53

Same author's predictions from 2018: https://avc.com/2018/01/what-is-going-to-happen-in-2018/

Written just vague enough on almost all the points to seem credible without actually saying anything. Guy above gets it right, this 2019 post is SV Tech Bubble at its finest.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#68

Post by mikedouglas »

seibelj wrote: post #41
skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

There are many kooky economic experiments in crypto right now that are not only 1) Not failing miserably, but 2) Are growing steadily. Decentralized financial products like MakerDAO and Compound Finance are very interesting. Augur is a prediction marketplace that was pilloried for having some 30 users per day when it launched, but now has around $2 million in open interest. It is very early days, and it is quite comp…

Augur hasn't really seen any uptick in usage: https://dappradar.com/app/673/augur

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#70

Post by jbottoms »

paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

I agree with your Trump assessment with one addition: on his way out the door, his last words will be, "That's it, I'm outta here, you don't appreciate what a great job I did, it was beautiful, you don't deserve me."
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