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What Is Going to Happen in 2019

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Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#41

Post by seibelj »

skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

There are many kooky economic experiments in crypto right now that are not only 1) Not failing miserably, but 2) Are growing steadily. Decentralized financial products like MakerDAO and Compound Finance are very interesting. Augur is a prediction marketplace that was pilloried for having some 30 users per day when it launched, but now has around $2 million in open interest.

It is very early days, and it is quite complicated to build new products and businesses given that the tooling is poor, the crypto networks are slow, and many mainstream technologists take endless pleasure in shitting on crypto and cheering when prices fall, but progress continues.

I think cryptocurrencies and smart contracts have earned a seat at the table for disruptive technologies of the 21st century, along with cloud computing, AI / ML / big data, and smart phones.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#42

Post by martythemaniak »

weinzierl wrote: post #2

> The eurozone is about to go through the most significant change in decades with some sort of departure of the UK from the EU (Brexit). It remains unclear exactly how this will happen, which in and of itself is creating a lot of uncertainty on the Continent. I don’t expect most businesses in Europe to do anything but play defense in 2019. Of all the things said in the post this stands out to me as the only overly pe…

I think he overestimates the impact this will have on the Eurozone. I mean, Brexit is a B.F.D. for Britain, but the continent? I'd like someone to explain that to me in detail.

Britain might start to kick out Europeans, but European countries are probably going to try and keep British retirees and professionals. A chunk of the financial industry is going to migrate out of London.

European products would get far more expensive, sure, but are British people going to actually dump them? I mean, if you're used to good Italian olive oil, French cheese and German cars, it might take a few years to switch to canola oil, American cheese and Geely-ies.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#43

Post by ttflee »

logicchains wrote: post #13

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

China's growth in the past 30 years largely depended on foreign direct investment and export. With current dispute on trade escalating to an all out trade war, the prospect in 2019 would be even more dimmer. If China invades Taiwan and further disrupts global supply chain, a such slower global growth could be expected.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#44

Post by ronnier »

altairiumblue wrote: post #24
nailer wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would have voted for Clinton (if I were able to, and Bernie wasn't available). But the Mueller investigation, so far, has uncovered: Trump's lawyer evading some taxes. With all that effort and such minor results it's not looking like they're going to find much.

> But the Mueller report, so far, has uncovered No, it hasn't. There has been no report.

There won’t be a report until we get closer to reelection. He’ll drop it then.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#45

Post by Fordec »

swarnie_ wrote: post #26
em500 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wikipedia has this handy overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Supranational_European_Bo... Unfortunately as a citizen of one of the founding members of the EU, I don't even recognise half the flags in the diagram.

Top right quarter of that image... I can name maybe two flags and that's only from European sports, the rest are actually a mystery. Give me the names and i'm sure i would know them, ask me to point them out on a blank map and we're straying back in to embarrassing territory again.

I assume you mean the BSEG section is included?

Off the top of my head Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Moldova, Turkey, Georgia, Northern Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Serbia, Belarus, Romania and Bulgaria are all there anyway.

I think I've still missed a handful but I'm pretty happy with my European flag knowledge apparently from that.

Acknowledgement: I would like to thank the Eurovision Song Competition apparently for my education

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#46

Post by kuhhk »

ianai wrote: post #37
skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.

Yup. The word you’re trying to remember is a ‘deflationary’ currency. It encourages hoarding of the currency, rather than spending it.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#47

Post by ianai »

kuhhk wrote: post #46
ianai wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.

Yup. The word you’re trying to remember is a ‘deflationary’ currency. It encourages hoarding of the currency, rather than spending it.

I prefer to describe the mechanism than use a singular term in aide of explanation. You’re totally correct.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#48

Post by beat »

logicchains wrote: post #13

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone: This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi... ). The average person in China is much poorer than the average per…

"THE relevant statistic" (emphasis mine) is also misleading. Lots of different things measure development.

It's not surprising that China is seeing some slowdown in growth, as they climb that curve. Jumping from $50 to $100 is easier than jumping from $5000 to $10,000. Or another way, a 10% growth rate at $1000 requires increasing revenue by $100. At $10,000, it means increasing by $1000.

On top of that, China is an export-driven economy, and it's tangling with slowdowns among its customers (who aren't growing nearly as fast anyway), and a trade war with the US.

edit: Rather than just measuring China vs "developed world", measure China vs China. The per capita GDP of China has increased a hundredfold in the past 50 years. To sustain that rate for another 50 years, per capita GDP would have to reach over $800,000 (in constant dollars). That seems... unlikely.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#49

Post by chasing »

Trump will not resign the Presidency. And Congress certainly won’t remove him.

2019 and 2020 will see the country better learning to work around a President who acts on whims instead of information.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#50

Post by mtberatwork »

stevespang wrote: post #4

Impeachment will never happen. If you study recent history, an impeachment attempt on Trump will go down just like it did on Clinton - - strictly along party lines. The Clinton vote was razor accurate along party lines when it happened. No majority means no impeachment.

You are thinking of conviction by a super majority. Clinton was impeached by the house but was later acquitted in the senate.
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