What Is Going to Happen in 2019 • Hacker News Board

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#81

Post by davidw » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:13 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

I think the odds he gets impeached are decent. What's much less likely is that the Senate votes to convict. That's what happened in Bill Clinton's case.

They have the votes to impeach him in the House come Thursday; at that point it becomes more of a political calculation of when the timing is right. They don't want to be seen as jumping the gun, so it probably depends on the Mueller report or the various other investigations into his taxes, past business crookedness, illegal campaign payments, his 'non-profit' foundation, the inauguration funds, or the various and sundry other high crimes and misdemeanors.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#82

Post by ethbro » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:14 PM UTC

ianai wrote: post #37

skywhopper wrote: post #30

VCs are going to talk up things that they’ve invested in, but his emphasis on crypto as meaningful in any way beyond a temporary buzzword and a sink for suckers’ money is pretty indicative of the amount of trust one should put in his predictions. Skimming his recent articles, including the look back at 2018, it’s clear he sees crypto as a hedge against political and economic instability, but the irony is that crypto’…

One of my Econ classes posed a question “why would basing a currency on gold be bad” (some hint like that). Essentially, any currency with a finite supply and that can never increase will restrain economic growth.

In the case of gold, there's also exploration, colonization, and foreign resource exploitation.

There's probably an argument that one of the main drivers of European colonization was pursuit of a de facto increase in currency supply.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#83

Post by olivermarks » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:14 PM UTC

keiferski wrote: post #20

This dramatically over-estimates the impact that a Trump impeachment would have - just like analysts in 2016 predicted that the economy would crash if Trump won. [1] In reality, the markets would likely respond to a Pence presidency with positivity. His reputation is far more "boring and dependable" than Trump's ever has been. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/business/dealbook/what-ha...

just like the Bush/Cheney relationship, it pays to watch Pence rather than Trump, who is arguably just a distraction.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#84

Post by pier25 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:17 PM UTC

As a European I hope Trump will be impeached or he will renounce. It's the only way the US will regain any trust from other countries. For the average citizen Trump is the only image of the US they get on the news which is not very flattering.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#85

Post by Shivetya » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:17 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

I would rather suffer Trump to the end of his term than suffer the market distortions and worse because of any attempt to impeach. Maybe this time the both sides will put up worthwhile candidates.

Worse is the declarations of some in the Democratic Party of going not only after him but Pence and even Kavanaugh. Go after both President and Vice would be played out as a coup and hand Trump his greatest leverage ever. It would push a lot of independents back into his camp. We do not need the precedent, let alone set by trying to impeach for activities before he was President.

If we start prosecuting politicians for what they did before they entered office then it just comes down to a banana republic. where whomever is in power decides who they don't like and just take them down.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#86

Post by nailer » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:20 PM UTC

altairiumblue wrote: post #80

nailer wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

> You conveniently ignored everything else I wrote.

No, I ignored them because nobody has been charged with those things.

> The crimes that he's publicly admitted to are conspiring with a foreign government against the US, election fraud and obstruction of justice.

Reference? Not wikipedia. I'll wait.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#87

Post by LegendaryLegend » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:21 PM UTC

To the author: thank you for having the courage to write your predictions, and ignore the haters that are more often than not incapable of doing the same, since it's a lot easier to critique than to create.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#88

Post by dragonwriter » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:29 PM UTC

srge wrote: post #7

dragonwriter wrote: post #3

> The eurozone is about to go through the most significant change in decades with some sort of departure of the UK from the EU (Brexit). The UK may be leaving the EU, but that's not a change to the Eurozone, which is a monetary union among a subset of EU members, of which the UK has never been a part.

There still could be impact on trade, especially if we have a no-deal brexit.

There will certainly be an impact on trade, but it's very odd to identify that as specifically a Eurozone issue. Eurozone, EU, and Europe are related, obviously, but the trade impacts of Brexit (deal or no deal) are much more about the latter two than the first.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#89

Post by cor87nowmg » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:32 PM UTC

pier25 wrote: post #84

As a European I hope Trump will be impeached or he will renounce. It's the only way the US will regain any trust from other countries. For the average citizen Trump is the only image of the US they get on the news which is not very flattering.

I hope it's proved that Trump didn't do anything substantially wrong. Then - instead of the world having to have overcome some terrible problem - I would only have to overcome the shame of having made a mistake. And I've been mistaken many times.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#90

Post by matttproud » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 5:39 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #36

People said this exact same thing about trump in 2017 except with the impeachment date being 2018 instead of 2019. I would be willing to take the opposite side of that bet. The odds of impeachment are slim based on the rarity of past occurrences, and House democrats have expressed reservations about impeachment. Even if impeached, that does not mean he will leave office. China;s GDP has been slowing for over a decade…

As long as Rosenstein stays around, it seems likely the Mueller report goes to Congress: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/23/us/politics/t...

No matter what, I would bet my money on continued discord and breakdown.