What Is Going to Happen in 2019 • Hacker News Board

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#11

Post by notacoward » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:49 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

> I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not Hillary Clinton.

That basically amounts to saying that you don't believe a Clinton voter can be objective. That's evidence of bias on your part, not his.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#12

Post by k_ » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:49 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

> Also, if you have an annual tradition of forecasting the upcoming year, please also make it a tradition of evaluating your previous year's prediction.

Good point, I was curious too, and I found exactly that for 2016:

https://avc.com/2016/12/what-did-and-did-not-happen-in-2016/

Edit: Same for other years: https://avc.com/2018/12/what-happened-in-2018/ https://avc.com/2017/12/what-happened-in-2017/ https://avc.com/2015/12/what-didnt-happen/ http://avc.com/2014/12/what-just-happened/

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#13

Post by logicchains » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:52 PM UTC

>China’s GDP has been slowing in recent years as it achieved relative parity with the US and the Eurozone:

This is misleading; the relevant metric for measuring development is GDP per capita, which is only around $8,500 in China, compared to $59,000 for the US and and $33,000 for the EU (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...). The average person in China is much poorer than the average person in America or Europe; a significant portion are still subsistence farmers, the only reason absolute GDP is comparable with the US and Europe is that China's population is way bigger. One would only expect growth to slow when China's per-person GDP approaches that of a developed country, not it's total GDP.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#14

Post by [deleted] » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:52 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

[deleted]

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#15

Post by sremani » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:54 PM UTC

notacoward wrote: post #11

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

> I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not Hillary Clinton. That basically amounts to saying that you don't believe a Clinton voter can be objective. That's evidence of bias on your part, not his.

That is my heuristic, is it sound? perhaps not. I have said "I will give weightage" not you should not take his prediction seriously.

I am biased and flawed, and I agree with your assessment.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#16

Post by Spooky23 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:55 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

You don’t have to be a democrat to bet on the Trump endgame.

The administration is a slow motion car crash.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#17

Post by revskill » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:55 PM UTC

A stable, extendable CRUD app is better than a hacky Deep Learning project, which only has fuzzy meaning in prediction and marketing.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#18

Post by ocdtrekkie » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:56 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

I would point out that his predictions for 2018 included the opinion that Trump would remain President throughout. On hopeful thinking, many liberals would've suggested that Trump's Presidency would not survive 2018. So clearly he feels the changes throughout 2018 have reached a tipping point of some kind.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#19

Post by nailer » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:56 PM UTC

sremani wrote: post #6

>> I believe that we will have a different President of the United States by the end of 2019. The catalyst for this change will be a devastating report issued by Robert Mueller that outlines a history of illegal activities by our President going back decades, including in his campaign for President. I will only give weight-age to Mr.Wilson's prediction on this if he discloses whom he cast his Vote in 2016 and its not…

I would have voted for Clinton (if I were able to, and Bernie wasn't available).

But the Mueller investigation, so far, has uncovered: Trump's lawyer evading some taxes. With all that effort and such minor results it's not looking like they're going to find much.

Re: What Is Going to Happen in 2019

#20

Post by keiferski » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 2:57 PM UTC

This dramatically over-estimates the impact that a Trump impeachment would have - just like analysts in 2016 predicted that the economy would crash if Trump won. [1]

In reality, the markets would likely respond to a Pence presidency with positivity. His reputation is far more "boring and dependable" than Trump's ever has been.

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/business/dealbook/what-ha...