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As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

thetransportpolitic.com

81–90 of 171 posts

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#81
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think you see general solution for "self driving" in next 20 years, i have a bridge to sell you

In a restricted lane (dedicated to only self driving vehicles), we have had this capability for at least 15 years.

That might be fair but that's a chicken-egg problem.

We don't have any such lanes because only the self-driving car companies have dual mode vehicles.

Nobody's going to market vehicles designed to drive in lanes that don't exist. And building out the lanes and the infrastructure to enter and exit them, probably will boost congestion in the short term.

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When driving your car inter-city do you never think ‘if only I could be working, relaxing or sleeping with this time’ like in a train?

My commute is under 15 minutes each way and this is the only thing I think about during that time. I hate every minute of attention sucking driving.

Part of my day is a 20 minute train ride. I tend to enjoy it (except, of course, when it's late).

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#83
post #77

Seriously? Author plots kilometers built absolute numbers for China and Italy onto the same graph? Could someone politely inform said author that China is a little bit bigger than Italy. The part about the US needing to wake up rings true though.

That's a good point, but I think the point the author was going for is that the U.S is comparable and much smaller countries in physical size are far surpassing them in absolute numbers.

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#84

I would prefer to live in the US than any of these countries funding HSR. Electric cars and electric scooters are enough to get around the city and around the state, with flights for anything much longer than that. Autonomous vehicles available via subscription will make that even better.

The problem is that flights are not sustainable much longer. Flying uses an astounding amount of subsidized fossil fuels, requires infrastructure that takes up quite a large amount of space, and is increasingly both inconvenient and intrusive. They're also a separate matter from the last-mile problem that bicycles, scooters, and autonomous vehicles aim to solve (assuming we can structure AV use in a way that, during…

Commercial air travel is more efficient in fuel usage than driving, per passenger mile.

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#85
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article talks about a train that can go 200mph. That makes having people drive between cities seem a rather slow option. Plus you can get work done on a train. On a car it is not possible as a driver (other than phone calls) and pretty hard as a passenger. I take your point about planes, but it's good to have more than one option and trains are good for middling distances, as there isn't all the need to check in,…

Instead of trains we're working on self driving cars. They better serve last mile and are better suited for private investment and innovation than huge infrastructure projects.

Can you work in them without getting sick?

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#86
post #10
post #5

High speed rail is a non-starter in the US, except for in certain regions. It's 2000 miles from Chicago to LA. Optimistically, if you had a train that averaged 200 miles an hour, it would still take 10 hours. That's just not competitive.

So make it regional. There’s no high speed rail from Paris to Moscow either.

The economics still don't work. It becomes a "public work" project instead of a self-sustained business. If the car ended up being much more expensive to purchase and operate, like it is in countries mentioned that are doing so well in rail, then more Americans would ride them. Once you have a sufficient amount of usage, then it would lead to more high speed rails being developed.

I wrote this up a few days ago for another HN post about the economics between Colorado Springs and Denver (I use to live in both, the springs for longer). It's about 21% of springs residents work in Denver. It's a ~60mile commute. There was the choice between widening the interstate by an extra lane ($350 mil) or make a rail for however many billions. Going by that second line they gave a price tag on, €3.4 billion for 182km, that's about $3.8 billion for 113 miles. About $30million a mile. That's a $1.8 billion price tag for one USA area that could theoretically use it. If you go just the shortest distance between the springs and Denver considered the "city limits" of either. Not center to center. Just the closest outskirts.

So you tell me, what would a politician prefer to convince people on a tax hike? $350mil for more roads that a majority of the people would more than likely use? Or $1.8bil for something that SOME people MAY use.

Let's ignore worker costs to operate the trains, rails, ticketing, security, etc. Also, let's ignore fuel/electricity costs. Also, let's ignore insurance. Oh, and preventive maintenance, upkeep and the sort. What sort of prices do they have to charge for about 57,000 to use the commuter to make it economically viable for the city(s)? Let's take $10 a day. 57k x $10 x 20work days a month(avg) x 12 = $136.8mil. It'd take 10+ years for it to break even. If everyone volunteers to work there and fuel was free. And no accidents. And no need to fix things. No paid janitors either. Or flushing toilets. All that costs more money.

If you price it $10 or more a day, why would anyone logically change over from their car already? It costs $8-$12 in fuel a day to make a round trip in a car anyways. Plus you don't have to wake up any sooner to catch the right time train to get to work at a decent time. Plus, a majority of the vehicles heading north to Denver (I use to make this trip relatively often by the way) is filled with plumbers, carpenters, electrical workers, landscapers and the sort. They have their own trucks and vans to carry tools and materials. None of which you can take on a train for a practical expense or in practical effort.

The economics for a high speed rail doesn't make sense with the cost in the USA. Fantastic they work well elsewhere. Great for them and their not car dependent society. They don't work out well here. It's time to mature and grow up to the fact that not all solutions solve all problems.

And yes, the government should spend money to help society. I get that. But there are limits. Too many of these and the defense sector would no longer be the bad guy in government spending.

And don't use the relaxing/reading argument. Obviously, you've never had to actually commute on a regular basis on public transit. I used to use a commuter in Portland for a few years. Your quality of reading comprehension sucks and you spend the first hour just trying to fully wake up because you wake up damn early to make your line jumps. It's not like "Oh, the commuter train takes me exactly where I want to go". Nope, now you have to jump onto buses or other lines to get to where you work. Because the stations are never where you need them. And god damn, when it snows and you're waiting outside. Fuck. Oh, and you have to work late that day? Guess what, the commuter only runs at peak hour work days. You don't get to hang out in the city. If you do, call a friend with a car. Oh, and you owe them gas money now too.

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#87
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have, have access to, are able, or want to drive a car, then at best it's reasonable option for places outside of denser areas, albeit far more expensive than the cost of gas. While cars are certainly good in some ways at getting people around to places that don't make sense to service with more significant options, they shouldn't be considered first when thinking about new development imo.

A non-new, efficient car (say, a 3 year old Prius) is about $0.15/mi to operate.

How is that number calculated?

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#88
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A non-new, efficient car (say, a 3 year old Prius) is about $0.15/mi to operate.

Perhaps, though I don't know where that number comes from. If it's purely gas mileage, then it doesn't account for cost of insurance, cost of the car, risk of an accident, cost of storing the car, cost of general maintenance, and, while sort of ancillary, cost the urban area if everyone relies on driving. If it's not pure gas mileage, I'd be curious how that formula works out, but there remain problems with that as a…

That's all-in cost, including depreciation and fuel and insurance and maintenance. This is why UberX sort of works for some drivers.

The rate for a new car is much closer to the federal reimbursement rate ($0.545/mi), mostly depreciation. Obviously driving a new lambo at 100mph will be more like $4/mi.

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#89
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is suggesting building high speed rail from Chicago to LA? Why would you pick that particular example? It takes even longer to drive, and yet we have built multiple highway routes that connect LA and Chicago. Instead of picking dumb examples to discredit the idea, how about looking at obviously good places: The entire East coast from Boston to Miami would be a good corridor to build in. Or start in Chicago, Dalla…

It's actually a helpful example to support the conclusion. Why would the author provide a "better" example that supports his/her idea less? LA to Chicago may not be a commonly travelled route nor one that would lend itself to train travel best, but the author's point still stands, which is in the US on average distances between major cities are much longer than any individual country in Europe, hence the immense cost…

> We might have bit the bullet and done it with highways back in the day for whatever reason, today the reasoning for doing the same thing may not apply and the cost unjustified.

So the rational, cost-effective solution would have been not to have any connection at all?

Re: As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017)

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like Canada could realistically cover almost 75% of the population: https://i.redd.it/sjbijiqb0u211.png

Similar maps work for the us. East and west coasts are dense, so too the boarder with canada (the great lakes cities). Every developed country has population centers around ports. There just arent any ports in the north. (That may one day change.) https://wywing.files.wordpress.com/2017/03/us_population_den...

There is actually a little known port called Hudson Bay Port in the town of Churchill Manitoba. The town has an airport and a rail line, though unfortunately the rail line has fallen into disrepair in recent years, as the private company that owns it has chosen not to maintain it. I'm not sure on the current status, but I recall it being big news because it's lack of running cut off services to many northern communities, as well as rail service in general.
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