Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#101

Post by WorldMaker » Tue, Dec 18, 2018, 5:22 PM UTC

belltaco wrote: post #82

WorldMaker wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By "it" do you mean Bitcoin? Because it is designed to be deflationary? Because its (energy cost) overhead is still sky high and likely to remain reflected in prices? Because it is the "brand name" market with whatever caché remains to that name reflecting in prices? Because sunk costs of existing investors want to keep the price high for as long as possible? Those are just a few of the more obvious reasons. Not that…

>Because its (energy cost) overhead is still sky high and likely to remain reflected in prices? This is a huge fallacy.

How is it a fallacy? Do you have a source to cite? I can easily find a few:

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/bitcoins-insane-...

Yes, it's down from the bubble peak in mining, but it is still a massive over-expenditure of energy per value. Right now, still, according to the Digiconomist stats above, ~15 average US homes can be powered for a day with the energy spent to make a single Bitcoin transaction block. That's a considerable amount of energy.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#102

Post by tim333 » Tue, Dec 18, 2018, 8:15 PM UTC

the_gastropod wrote: post #92

tim333 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.

Bitcoin has about 9 years of history. And until ~October 2017 it was a pretty obscure thing, primarily known about by “nerds”. That is no longer the case. I will leave myself a calendar reminder to check this thread in 5 years. I will be very surprised if BTC is trading higher then than it is now (~$3500).

If I was hazarding a guess I'd say the next crypto boom will be lead by a proof of stake coin, maybe a new improved ETH so BTC may languish a bit. BTC is a bit environmentally unfriendly.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#103

Post by belltaco » Wed, Dec 19, 2018, 1:58 PM UTC

WorldMaker wrote: post #101

belltaco wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Because its (energy cost) overhead is still sky high and likely to remain reflected in prices? This is a huge fallacy.

How is it a fallacy? Do you have a source to cite? I can easily find a few: https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/12/bitcoins-insane-... Yes, it's down from the bubble peak in mining, but it is still a massive over-expenditure of energy per value. Right now, still, according to the Digiconomist stats above, ~15 average US homes can be powered for a day with the e…

The fallacy is in the second part of your statement, that it's reflected in the prices.

The mining viability follows the price of bitcoin, not the other way around. The mining costs are in no way reflected in the costs of mining.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#104

Post by koboll » Wed, Dec 19, 2018, 7:07 PM UTC

ascendantlogic wrote: post #45

empath75 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a huge crypto currency skeptic and think the market is largely driven by massive amounts of fraud. That said -- eventually the price will drop to the point where the price is entirely driven by Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct. Just for the sake of argument, let's said that 'natural price' is $500 or $600 a bitcoin -- it bo…

> Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct. Funny I should read your comment about Bitcoin's use for criminal enterprise after I read about Goldman Sach's alleged hand in a multi-billion dollar fraud in Malaysia, or Deutche Bank's multi-billion dollar money laundering. Or going back a few years the Panama Papers and that entire undergro…

Funny you should say that. I bought in at the beginning of the frenzy last September, and sold ten minutes after I read in early December that Wall Street was about to open up futures trading. I guessed that meant that the likes of Goldman were about to vaccuum up cash from the normal folks on my Facebook timeline with no technical background suddenly posting "I should buy Bitcoin!".

Nailed that one.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#105

Post by KasianFranks » Thu, Dec 20, 2018, 8:47 AM UTC

the_gastropod wrote: post #91

KasianFranks wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So lets just stop innovating right here right now. Bad logic.

Negative. Innovation is great. But new inventions won’t all be successful. And claiming one will because another invention was successful in the past is bad logic.

"New inventions won't all be successful" thanks for the stroke of brilliance!