Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#21

Post by morgancmartin » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:53 PM UTC

themgt wrote: post #16

ascendantlogic wrote: post #2

As it has done multiple times previously. I anxiously await reading why this time is "different", just like all the previous times.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

Would you be willing to make a friendly wager on whether it returns bigger than ever? My ten dollars says it will within, say, two years. What do you say?

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#22

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:54 PM UTC

themgt wrote: post #16

ascendantlogic wrote: post #2

As it has done multiple times previously. I anxiously await reading why this time is "different", just like all the previous times.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#23

Post by disishhsha » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:54 PM UTC

themgt wrote: post #16

ascendantlogic wrote: post #2

As it has done multiple times previously. I anxiously await reading why this time is "different", just like all the previous times.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

I could still see it getting bigger - you can’t buy a bitcoin ETF yet. Not saying it’ll ever happen, but there are big pools of money out there that haven’t touched crypto yet.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#24

Post by jeron » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:55 PM UTC

gargarplex wrote: post #6

reidjs wrote: post #3

Why’s it still so darn expensive then?

Venture investment in Blockchain went up in 2018. The median deal size increased over $1.0mm and the number of deals is also up. [1] Once the ecosystem of complements matures, Bitcoin's utilization is expected to increase. [2] The price of Bitcoin is driven by speculation that utilization of Bitcoin creates value. [3] [1] https://medium.com/@PanteraCapital/market-update-pantera-blo... [2] Crossing the Chasm, 3rd Edit…

to add to this, adoption rate for cryptocurrency increased this year as well

https://www.investinblockchain.com/cryptocurrency-adoption-r...

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#25

Post by NathanCH » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:55 PM UTC

I would love an analysis on who is moving the market today. In the last month there have been three occurrences where the price of BTC jumped 10% in a single moment (followed by equal sell-offs hours/days later).

Stranger still, all coins seem highly correlated. BTC goes up, all coins go up.

I realize this behavior is not new and the market has been highly correlated since the beginning, ...but why?

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#26

Post by tn_ » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

morgancmartin wrote: post #21

themgt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

Would you be willing to make a friendly wager on whether it returns bigger than ever? My ten dollars says it will within, say, two years. What do you say?

This guy bitcoins.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#27

Post by jboles » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

reidjs wrote: post #3

Why’s it still so darn expensive then?

There’s millions/billions in sunk costs embedded in them, in the form of electricity bills already paid by miners. But being sunk costs, they do not contribute to any intrinsic value on their own.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#28

Post by whytaka » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

themgt wrote: post #16

ascendantlogic wrote: post #2

As it has done multiple times previously. I anxiously await reading why this time is "different", just like all the previous times.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

I laughed when the guy on the elevator told me he was selling his bitcoins at a loss because he heard other people on the elevator talking about it.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#29

Post by yellowapple » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:57 PM UTC

This article lost all credibility when it had managed to frame itself in a "haha stupid millennials" attitude by the very first sentence.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#30

Post by empath75 » Mon, Dec 17, 2018, 9:58 PM UTC

koboll wrote: post #18

devereaux wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again. EDIT: and I stand by my claim.

How? Which investors are going to believe the next bubble isn't a bubble?

I am a huge crypto currency skeptic and think the market is largely driven by massive amounts of fraud.

That said -- eventually the price will drop to the point where the price is entirely driven by Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct.

Just for the sake of argument, let's said that 'natural price' is $500 or $600 a bitcoin -- it bottomed out around $300 last time and we've had a 'halvening' since then. So let's imagine the price drops down to below $1000, and stays around that range for a year or more. Then a new halvening happens, the price doubles to $2000. Maybe someone figures out how to do something useful with cryptocurrency? 3-4 years from now, people will have already forgotten about the last bubble and might FOMO again. Bitcoin has a long history of boom and bust with each boom being bigger than the last. It won't take much to convince people that another boom is on the offing.