91–100 of 105 posts
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"Everyone said Bob was an idiot for playing the lottery, but look at him now!" " is a $10 Billion/year industry! If we could just capture 1%..." Just because some other thing was successful doesn't mean your pet thing will be successful too.
So lets just stop innovating right here right now. Bad logic.
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After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down over 80% since its peak. Let's also make sure we understand that the S&P500 (or any stock ownership) is owning _business(es)_. Businesses make money, and they return that money to their owners. Bitcoin is purely speculative and depends on someone else buying it f…
If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.
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If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.
Bitcoin has about 9 years of history. And until ~October 2017 it was a pretty obscure thing, primarily known about by “nerds”. That is no longer the case. I will leave myself a calendar reminder to check this thread in 5 years. I will be very surprised if BTC is trading higher then than it is now (~$3500).
As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
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Bitcoin has about 9 years of history. And until ~October 2017 it was a pretty obscure thing, primarily known about by “nerds”. That is no longer the case. I will leave myself a calendar reminder to check this thread in 5 years. I will be very surprised if BTC is trading higher then than it is now (~$3500).
Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
My father-in-law didn't know what Bitcoin was in 2011, nor were the sort of newspapers he read covering Bitcoin in prominent articles. Neither of those things are true in 2018.
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Bitcoin has about 9 years of history. And until ~October 2017 it was a pretty obscure thing, primarily known about by “nerds”. That is no longer the case. I will leave myself a calendar reminder to check this thread in 5 years. I will be very surprised if BTC is trading higher then than it is now (~$3500).
Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
Obscure for who? I doubt very much your average grocery store cashier, barber, or airline pilot had ever heard of Bitcoin. The farthest-back data I can find (from 2013) shows BTC had a market cap of ~$800 Million. At its peak, it was over $600 Billion. Amongst the HN crowd, BTC was not obscure in 2011—you're right.
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I am a huge crypto currency skeptic and think the market is largely driven by massive amounts of fraud. That said -- eventually the price will drop to the point where the price is entirely driven by Bitcoin's natural customer base -- tax cheats, money launderers, drug dealers, etc, and will probably in fact over correct. Just for the sake of argument, let's said that 'natural price' is $500 or $600 a bitcoin -- it bo…
Ransomware authors, heroin dealers and money launderers don't care how much BTC is worth - they only use it to cash out into USD. For them, the spot price is largely irrelevant. All their prices are denominated in USD, all they care about is that the exchange rate is stable. As for the launderers, you can launder money with BTC just as well when it is $3/coin, as you can when it is $3 million/coin.
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Have you ever heard of gold?
Gold has a very long history, useful applications in industry, jewelry etc and is a defacto currency the world-wide. Crypto is... None of these. Whatever crypto is or will become, gold it, currently, is not.
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Well, the gold bubble has yet to "permanently" pop, and has been through multiple phases of mania - an arbitrary substance worth trillions of dollars which our entire supply of fits in 3 olympic swimming pools. Socially agreed upon value can potentially last for generations without any fundamental sense.
Gold is very different. There's a lot of ornamental uses(some industrial) and also historical and cultural value. Owning and hoarding gold is a status symbol in some cultures(2.5 billion plus with just China+India) way beyond owning the latest and most expensive iPhones. Throughout most of modern history, you could buy things with gold and that's unlikely to change. Barring alchemy or some extreme globalwide natural…
The purported uses of gold have no relevance, they're just part of the illusion of gold having value. We value 3 swimming pools of an arbitrary substance at 7 trillion dollars. There is no utility that even justifies 1% of this valuation. It does not produce dividends.
Would you rather speculate on a "shared illusion of value" that has massive room to grow into the digital age, or one that is potentially reaching peak levels of absurdity?
Both assets are illusory bullshit - but you can make a lot of money trading bullshit.
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Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
> Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. Obscure for who? I doubt very much your average grocery store cashier, barber, or airline pilot had ever heard of Bitcoin. The farthest-back data I can find (from 2013) shows BTC had a market cap of ~$800 Million. At its peak, it was over $600 Billion. Amongst the HN crowd, BTC was not obscure in 2011—you're right.
MtGox wasn't a secret. It was relatively well known and covered in the news, and I don't mean tech news. 2011, maybe 2012, was when bitcoin entered the public lexicon and it's only become more and more ubiquitous since.
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Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. As far as 5 years from now -- who knows where it will be trading. I suspect it will be higher than it is now, but there's never a guarantee on any of this.
> Bitcoin hasn't been obscure since 2011 or so. Obscure for who? I doubt very much your average grocery store cashier, barber, or airline pilot had ever heard of Bitcoin. The farthest-back data I can find (from 2013) shows BTC had a market cap of ~$800 Million. At its peak, it was over $600 Billion. Amongst the HN crowd, BTC was not obscure in 2011—you're right.