Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China’s Economy Slows Sharply

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 260 posts

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#141

Post by Svettie »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #111
triviatise wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple levels of unemployment U1-U6, they go from the most liberal to the most conservative view unemployment. Ultimately the absolute number doesnt matter that much, it is the trends. The "official" number is the U3, but if you prefer to use the U6 you can. No one is lying about unemployment. U1:[47] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or c…

Did you not read my comment? I explicitly mentioned that there are multiple forms of unemployment statistics measures by Labor, and that workforce participation statistic is most accurate. Yet, you will never ever hear these stats on TV or from Trump. It is solely just screaming about "RECORD LOW UNEMPLOYMENT", when it is anything but a healthy employment situation.

The point isn't that the number is a precise measure of unemployment, but that it's correlated to it and can be used for historical comparisons. That's all. As long as the way it's measured stays relatively consistent over time, we can reason that it measures "something", and track how that changes. Calling that something "unemployment rate" is just a label.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#142

Post by forapurpose »

askaboutit wrote: post #88

Every economy has a plateau then a fall, then a pull back up again. I think the aggressive trade stance and hard line politics by China might have played a major role. As it’s frightened both the local businesses and foreign businesses and lead to all global powers starting to put tariffs and trade barriers up, all due to China wanting to get away with pretty blatant violations of fair trade, huge import taxes on for…

> I think the aggressive trade stance and hard line politics by China might have played a major role.

It's a nice distraction to attack China when the source of such things, in this tale, is a U.S. that has taken those stances to extremes unimagined before Trump took office. The U.S. fetishizes "hard line" and "aggressive", and has underminedh norms stretching back generations and has destroyed the U.S.'s reputation on trade and international relations. And all those consequences are intentional, a nationalist goal.

> China wanting to get away with pretty blatant violations of fair trade

I don't know that they have done more than other countries similarly situated, beyond allegations by the current U.S. administration as a justification for nationalist policies. Some things on this list of allegations are insubstantial, and we could make a similar lists for other countries. Is there any independent basis that China is worse than other developing countries or than other economic powers (they are both)?

> they’ve taken their “build junk make bank” mentality to the world and it can’t last much longer

This is just an empty stereotype unless you can back it up. Many high quality goods are made in China, including some that you may be using. There is nothing wrong with making cheaper, low-quality goods either.

One might say that U.S. financial industry is the leading proponent of "build junk make bank", with by far the most serious consequences.

> Every economy has a plateau then a fall, then a pull back up again

That's not actually how economics works at all. In the real world, perhaps outside the wealthy country you live in that has had good economic management (though the U.S. and others seem to be losing their way), countries do fall and never recover.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#143

Post by nradov »

dana321 wrote: post #116
nosleeptill wrote: post #28

Having done business in China, and having friends still in China, as one of them put it, "China has more problems than you can count." China is really a complex house of cards, it looks more foreboding than it actually is in reality. The second the economy slows the consumers hide, and go back to stuffing cash into their mattresses. I think Trump is a fool, but in the case of China I think we need a fool. Trump belie…

Its not just China. Here in the UK for the first time, i've seen multiple billboards with nothing but scraps on them (they've deleted the adverts by scraping the remnants off)

Maybe advertisers have shifted their spending to social media?

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#144

Post by mook »

gscott wrote: post #82
clomond wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen it in various economics articles/readings on the topic regarding the governments long term economic strategy. (see article below I found) You are also right - yes one of the biggest complains IS that many Chinese businesses are "owned" by the government with lots of influence there. However, the big resistive force here preventing this further breakup is that they are such huge employers, and it is not poli…

I was reading an article some time back some Chinese businesses in order to get loans had to give a stake in their company to the government. It is not something heard about often but gives the government even more sway over private businesses.

Are they giving a stake to the government, or to the government officials? Because the latter is just plain corruption, and to be honest isn't very surprising anywhere.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#145

Post by yesforwhat »

shanghaiaway wrote: post #119
friedman23 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and shifts from inefficient state owned enterprises to companies that can operate more efficiently and are "market oriented") Do you have evidence of this? Isn't one of the biggest US complaints that many Chinese businesses are indistinguishable from the government?

You should be interested in reality rather than projections. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Huawei, etc. are corporate entities separate from the Chinese government.

> Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Huawei, etc. are corporate entities separate from the Chinese government.

Not quite.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#146

Post by yesforwhat »

defertoreptar wrote: post #58
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

Why would they want a economic slowdown?

They dont, they are saying they want something they can't control happening . Old trick

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#148

Post by smnrchrds »

ubtual wrote: post #97
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

This is a common pattern amongst Chinese apologist Economy: Everyone says it's been failing for 10 years -> Chinese leadership is omnipotent regarding economy -> it's just a temporary slowdown, government will print more money -> Chinese leadership planned this slowdown Human rights: look at US! -> ignore comparisons to other countries other than US -> It's not really a concentration camp, since there's no mass murde…

> or slavery 300 years ago

I am no apologist for any country, but wouldn't a better point be the very real, widespread, and constitutionally-protected prisoner slavery, which is happening in America today not just 300 years ago?

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#149

Post by watertom »

RhodesianHunter wrote: post #128
nosleeptill wrote: post #28

Having done business in China, and having friends still in China, as one of them put it, "China has more problems than you can count." China is really a complex house of cards, it looks more foreboding than it actually is in reality. The second the economy slows the consumers hide, and go back to stuffing cash into their mattresses. I think Trump is a fool, but in the case of China I think we need a fool. Trump belie…

We've needed someone to push back against China for some time now. I just wish it had been in consultation with our allies instead of flipping the middle finger to all of them at the same time.

Everyone is scared of China, so getting our allies to work in concert wouldn't happen, that's why we need a fool. Once everyone realizes that China isn't a tiger, it's easier to get our allies on board.

Western businesses have also wised up, realizing that partnering in China just means that you are forced to give away your IP. China is reliant on western countries partnering and giving away the IP for a shot at the Chinese market, but things have not panned out so well for Western countries because the consumer market in China is rigged against western companies. Also the consumers in China are scared rabbits, their motto is save, save, save, and then save more. It's going to take 2 or 3 generations to change the consumer habits.

Manufacturing is starting to leave China for cheaper countries that don't require you to give away your IP, just like it took 40 years for China to become a manufacturing powerhouse, but it can unwind in a few years.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#150

Post by tanilama »

sokoloff wrote: post #127
tanilama wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they shouldn't hype up the real estate price so much, it is draining the domestic consumers dry.

Well, some of them. Others are presumably finding it a path to future wealth, while others are cashing in on realized appreciation.

LoL, u have no idea.
Post reply on HN