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China’s Economy Slows Sharply

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#31

Post by triviatise »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #10
jacquesm wrote: post #4

And that is assuming that the previous and present day reporting are correct.

That's definitely an issue, but I would like to add that many of us feel the US govt too engages in lying through data. The biggest one in my mind is the unemployment rate. Even though Labor publishes nuanced statistics and revises them for accuracy, Trump and the media focus solely on the lowest tier of unemployment rate, which is the one below 4%. To be included in this rate, you must currently be receiving unemplo…

There are multiple levels of unemployment U1-U6, they go from the most liberal to the most conservative view unemployment. Ultimately the absolute number doesnt matter that much, it is the trends.

The "official" number is the U3, but if you prefer to use the U6 you can. No one is lying about unemployment.

U1:[47] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.

U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.

U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[48]

U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.

U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.

U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

You could even consider the labor participation rate as an unemployment number. That would include retired people, the wealthy that don't need to work, stay at home moms etc.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#32

Post by contingencies »

These articles are coming thick and fast from three sources: The Washington Post, New York Times and Bloomberg. Nobody else (BBC, Australia, etc.) seems to be reporting the same, which leads me to believe there's a political element to this reporting, particularly amidst the current "trade war". (We don't see a rash of "US Economy Shows Sharply" every time something goes wrong for the US, although the trend is arguably toward crumbling infrastructure and reduced competitiveness across the board.)

Against what therefore appears to be a propaganda-laden media landscape, I would merely add the observation that Chinese people and companies can more easily stomach slowdowns than the US because they save, don't tend to live highly leveraged and on subscription like Americans, don't need cars, and don't have a culture of mutual litigation or life-crushing medical bills.

Therefore, to an American reading "these people lost their jobs a couple of months early" the effect is insanely worrisome and they believe this to be a huge problem. In China, having an extended holiday from your seasonal factory job is generally a non-issue... these people can either hang around and get other work, or economically hibernate back at home sharing meals with family and passing time on a tiny budget. It's a different world.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#33

Post by seanmcdirmid »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #7
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

This is actually pretty genius. Perhaps the Chinese economy is recession-proof. But I doubt it. It's at the height of a 30-year bull market. It doesn't seem insane that a downturn could happen. And the party seems to be pretty weak when the Chinese economy isn't doing swimmingly. If things finally do turn sour, what a convenient time. You can just blame it on someone else.

The Chinese economy has had plenty of recessions in the last 30 years: 1990, 1998, even 2008 was probably a dip in real terms. It’s not like the economy hasn’t gone sour before.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#34

Post by zachguo »

friedman23 wrote: post #14
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

Absolutely no leader welcomes an economic slowdown. Especially not the leader of an authoritarian government. Your hypothesis does not explain why the Chinese government is acquiescing to American trade demands. If they welcomed this economic slowdown they would be holding firm in trade negotiations. What we are actually seeing happen is a rebalancing of foreign investment. American businesses have purchased stock in…

They would rather have a slowdown than run into a crisis.....

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#35

Post by friedman23 »

clomond wrote: post #21
NicoJuicy wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have my sincere doubts about this. China always had a requirement to grow 6% for every city. So I believe some numbers are inflated ( mostly about real estate eg. Ghost cities, ..). This doesn't give many issues, because there is actual growth. The reasoning goes that when the growth slows, the entire pyramid goes crumbling down ( debts). As weird as it is, I think it's an objective overview of everything China rel…

My understanding is that both of you can be right. The "Chinese government" is not a singular, monolithic entity in the same way the "US Government" is actually a bunch of departments, branches and jurisdiction levels each with competing and sometimes differing interests and goals. (but yes, it is more unified in China in the sticking to party line). The Chinese federal government has been wanting to make this re-bal…

> and shifts from inefficient state owned enterprises to companies that can operate more efficiently and are "market oriented")

Do you have evidence of this? Isn't one of the biggest US complaints that many Chinese businesses are indistinguishable from the government?

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#36

Post by seanmcdirmid »

volkl48 wrote: post #6
barrow-rider wrote: post #3

Has it really slowed, or just been putting out shady statistics for a while that show growth that isn't there?

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

Also known as the Li Keqian index. Too bad he has been marginalized by Xi.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#37

Post by seanmcdirmid »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #11
volkl48 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

Look -- I'm as skeptical of the Chinese miracle as anyone. But serious question: if the data was really as fake as everyone says, wouldn't the official and unofficial exchange rate of the Yuan be a lot larger? If the Chinese are basically pretending the economy has grown 500% and it's only grown 100%, wouldn't the value of the Yuan prove it?

The yuan is not fully convertible. It is subject to capital controls and a rate set by the government.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#38

Post by seanmcdirmid »

zachguo wrote: post #27

China's economy will slow, no doubt about it. CCP worries about it way more than Trump. But car sales and anecdotes are not really good ways to measure the economy. If you have doubt about those GDP numbers published by China. Take look at metrics such as freight traffic and trade stats.

You mean the Li Keqiang index. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#39

Post by clomond »

friedman23 wrote: post #35
clomond wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that both of you can be right. The "Chinese government" is not a singular, monolithic entity in the same way the "US Government" is actually a bunch of departments, branches and jurisdiction levels each with competing and sometimes differing interests and goals. (but yes, it is more unified in China in the sticking to party line). The Chinese federal government has been wanting to make this re-bal…

> and shifts from inefficient state owned enterprises to companies that can operate more efficiently and are "market oriented") Do you have evidence of this? Isn't one of the biggest US complaints that many Chinese businesses are indistinguishable from the government?

I've seen it in various economics articles/readings on the topic regarding the governments long term economic strategy. (see article below I found)

You are also right - yes one of the biggest complains IS that many Chinese businesses are "owned" by the government with lots of influence there. However, the big resistive force here preventing this further breakup is that they are such huge employers, and it is not politically easy to reduce and remove so many people from the payrolls. So it has been a slow process.

Here is an article roughly related: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2015/12/30/china-star...

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#40

Post by whyonearth »

contingencies wrote: post #32

These articles are coming thick and fast from three sources: The Washington Post, New York Times and Bloomberg. Nobody else (BBC, Australia, etc.) seems to be reporting the same, which leads me to believe there's a political element to this reporting, particularly amidst the current "trade war". (We don't see a rash of "US Economy Shows Sharply" every time something goes wrong for the US, although the trend is arguab…

Surely the markets took a hit today because the world's financial centers have all been duped by such propaganda. Look, even China-friendly South China Morning Post is in on the con, despicable. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2178089/c...
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