Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#311

Post by nikofeyn » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 5:48 AM UTC

ddoolin wrote: post #102

nikofeyn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

You should share what those cars are. Also, when are they planning to enter the market at large? Why haven't they done so yet? I don't doubt other major manufacturers will soon give Tesla a run for their money, but mysterious Chinese manufacturers? Certainly.

you are the one uninformed, so maybe you should do a search? there is nothing mysterious about chinese auto manufacturers, in particular the ones making electric vehicles. what do you consider the "market at large"? as someone else mentioned to you, china is the biggest electric vehicle maker and seller in the world. china is also the world's largest auto market.

some of the ones that i have personal experience with are nio, geely, saic roewe, and byd. there are many, many more. i have ridden in the last three brands multiple times and saw the nio showroom cars. the three brands i rode in were very nice cars and obviously affordable since most of my rides in them were with didi drivers, china's uber.

hacker news, along with many in technology in the u.s., has a huge bias against china. but this is going to catch up with the u.s. in a bad way. china is catching up, and in many cases, exceeding, the u.s. in many industries.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/electric-car-sales-china-vs-...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-04-23/china-s-c...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#312

Post by ecpottinger » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 5:50 AM UTC

cobookman wrote: post #164

bjelkeman-again wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the cars, but the fuel. “America spends over $20bn per year on fossil fuel subsidies. Abolish them” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...

US also spends money on electricity subsidies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies#United_States """ Renewable energy: $7.3 billion (45 percent) Energy efficiency: $4.8 billion (29 percent) Fossil fuels: $3.2 billion (20 percent) Nuclear energy: $1.1 billion (7 percent) """

Good, get rid of them ALL! Then see which is truly better. Musk has clearly said he would prefer if all energy subsidies were canceled.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#313

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 5:52 AM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #172

Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC, concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really solid earning report that dispels a lot of t…

It is one profitable quarter, so. Whether this is sustainable or not, well I don't know.

The most important for Tesla now would be to keep production stable. Reports about bad quality might hint at some issues on that front. The other risk I see is how debt is structured. With debt converting to stock above certain values means Tesla is much more reliant on stock courses than other companies. So Tesla needs to keep production stable to keep the cash flow positive and keep the valuation high to be able to cover debt. Riky position if you ask me.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#314

Post by shaklee3 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 5:53 AM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #21

dgritsko wrote: post #5

This is a really, really big deal. They've still got a long way to go (as I'm sure Musk would be the first person to admit), but turning a profit is no small feat and should be applauded as such.

It is. Musk shall enjoy the pride of having cracked through the glass ceiling. I wasn't happy with everything he did but still.

That's not what the glass ceiling is...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#315

Post by nikofeyn » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 5:53 AM UTC

mh8h wrote: post #176

nikofeyn wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.

There's also the charging network. At least in the North America the Tesla supercharger network is the only viable option if you are doing a road trip.

i am not knowledgeable about the charging network in either the u.s. or in china. but china has sold more electric cars than anyone, so if i were to wager a guess, i would have to assume the charging network is superior to the one in the u.s.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#316

Post by ecpottinger » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:02 AM UTC

Endama wrote: post #13

My understanding is that the conditions inside of Tesla's manufacturing are brutal. I have friends who work on the production side and they effectively tell me corporate culture is driven by fear. I am definitely cheering Tesla on for global warming reasons but I worry that Musk is running a Faustian bargain that may bite him in the backside long term. These numbers though are really exciting.

I worked on the line at GM, and it seem half the worker were always looking for some way to get less work or have someone else do part of their job while they get paid the same.

I was personally told to slow down because I was making my job look too easy, IE not as many workers were needed.

Those type of people would find working for Tesla a living hell where you are expect to work and not laze off. I am sure working at Tesla is hard work, but lots of people love working like that, however there are tons of people who will whine and complain if you try to get them to work properly.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#317

Post by ecpottinger » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:05 AM UTC

greglindahl wrote: post #43

beatgammit wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure a lot of that will go away as their manufacturing process settles down. I like the recent announcement that they're going to simplify interior options, and that tells me that they're taking a look at optimizing their process. Simplifying the process means better quality control, which means more predictability, which means less stress for employees. I'd love to see them get on par with other car manufacturer…

They're simplifying the Model X interior choices, that's a lower-volume model. Model 3's only interior option is color, black or white. Tesla is not planning to get on par with manufacturers that outsource a lot more than Tesla does. In fact their new Chinese factory is planned to be even worse, because it will produce battery cells and car motors in-house.

Henry Ford and the Model T lives. :)

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#318

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:06 AM UTC

greglindahl wrote: post #43

beatgammit wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure a lot of that will go away as their manufacturing process settles down. I like the recent announcement that they're going to simplify interior options, and that tells me that they're taking a look at optimizing their process. Simplifying the process means better quality control, which means more predictability, which means less stress for employees. I'd love to see them get on par with other car manufacturer…

They're simplifying the Model X interior choices, that's a lower-volume model. Model 3's only interior option is color, black or white. Tesla is not planning to get on par with manufacturers that outsource a lot more than Tesla does. In fact their new Chinese factory is planned to be even worse, because it will produce battery cells and car motors in-house.

So, less options for customers (not saying that e.g. Audi is exaggerating on that front) and full vertical integration. There are reasons why oitsourcing happened, I did not see a convincing explanation why it is good for Tesla not doing it.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#319

Post by ecpottinger » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:10 AM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #271

aphextron wrote: post #207

Anyone paying any attention in the Bay Area over the last few months has known what the Wall Street shorts and national media don't. Model 3 is an unbelievably massive success. It went from zero on the road, to more common than seeing a BMW 3 series in 6 months.

The bay area is a different planet from the rest of the world.

I am in Ontario Canada, and I have seen a number of them here.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#320

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 6:18 AM UTC

marvin wrote: post #41

ChuckMcM wrote: post #19

They have to be happy with those numbers, interesting question of whether they continue to sell the S,X,3's and generate a pile of cash before they start burning it on model Y development. In general it should also muzzle a lot of the nay sayers, it isn't easy to lie about money in the bank. Solar City is a disappointment. I keep watching the solar roof tile business to see if that goes anywhere. I'm getting close to…

Could you expand on why you think SolarCity is a disappointment? To be sure, they're slow developing and rolling out their product in volume, but your last sentence points out the massive strategic disadvantage a lot of utilities might have in a few years. To me, this seems very promising for a company developing tech that can be used, to a significant degree even through software/policy changes, to greatly reduce gr…

It has to do with their sales approach and technology. Last time I checked they are selling a lot directly to consumers with local slaes reps. That is expensive. Offering leasing agreements is just adding to their financing needs and cost.

Installation requires a local entity, either in-house or a third party, to plan it, visit the premises and so on. Offering a fixed rate up front (some companies in Germany do that, not sure whether Solar City is doing the same) carries risk for bith parties. In a nutshell, sales is expensive and capital intensive.

Regarding tech, solar modules are a commodity by now, they get cheaper basically every quarter. And more efficient ever year at least. So on that front there is not a lot to gain. Also, full grid independence is still not achievable for reasonable prices. Smart grids are better solution, inverter producers and utilities are in a better position than the company produucing and installing solar modules.

The technological curve results in guaranteed obsolescence. For solar roofs that means either to keep production for older models up or reliability high enough for the full life time of a roof.

Just a couple of thoughts.