Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#201

Post by pkulak » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 11:56 PM UTC

Mongus wrote: post #86

olivermarks wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

Until they have a combo adapter, they really don't have _the_ adapter.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#202

Post by dragontamer » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 11:56 PM UTC

btilly wrote: post #187

dragontamer wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$2 Billion? I'm only aware of the $920 Million due in March 2019. Is there another major bond worth discussing? > $1.2B increase in payables That's a yearly increase. $500M-ish increase between Q2 -> Q3. I think its reasonable to expect payables to go up as they ramp up from 2000 M3/week to 4000 M3/week, but the number still gives me worry. I think you're right to worry about these numbers. But its important to worry…

Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding Per http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff... they have $230 million due in Nov 2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113 million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and then. By my count this totals $4.1805 bill…

A lot of companies have a lot of bonds out. Its not necessarily unhealthy to keep some debt around, especially through the 2013 through 2017 timeframe when interest rates were abnormally low.

Elon will have to roll over the debt somehow: either into stock offerings or maybe into new bonds. The meager profits reported this quarter aren't anywhere near the amount they need to pay off those debts... even if the profits grow 2x or 3x larger in Q4 and Q1-2019.

But, paying off some of those debts will put the company into a stronger position.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#203

Post by kgwgk » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 11:56 PM UTC

tanderson92 wrote: post #197

mandeepj wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can also include the fines payable after settlement with SEC

Worth noting that Tesla didn't really experience those losses due its special stock issuance to Musk to cover the portion of the fine that was due to Tesla. The only material effect to Tesla's corporate finances from that debacle was Musk now has more concentrated equity ownership of the company.

I think that money helps on the cashflows side, but not in the income statement.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#204

Post by hylianwarrior » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 11:57 PM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #172

Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC, concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really solid earning report that dispels a lot of t…

Yeah, I think more than anything this highlights the extent that media outlets seized on and amplified the outrage.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#205

Post by jacques_chester » Wed, Oct 24, 2018, 11:58 PM UTC

eloff wrote: post #199

jacques_chester wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I think Tesla is fine. But I think Musk is a bit of a wanker and I have an allergic reaction to the hero-worship that's grown around him.

Musk has his faults for sure, and he really needs some people reviewing his twitter posts before they go live. But I find it amusing that people are so quick to point out his faults and criticize the guy when he's accomplished more in his life to date than any single one of his critics, with at most a couple exceptions, like Bezos. Basically if he's a wanker, what's that make you? I don't think it's fallacious reason…

> If he's a wanker, than really who isn't?

In my estimation, most people are not wankers. I think we have different estimations.

And accomplishment is not a defense against wankerdom.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#206

Post by tomatocracy » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 12:02 AM UTC

cs702 wrote: post #42

It appears Tesla shorts have lost . * Free cash flow of $881M for the quarter equates to $3.5B annualized. Current market cap is around $50B, so Tesla is trading for $50B / $3.5B = 14.3x annualized free cash flow. Even if this figure is not sustainable in the short to medium term, Tesla no longer looks that expensive. * $3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at quarter-end, increasing by $731M during the quarter -- consi…

My impression is that many Tesla shorts had covered to book profit on the way down from high 300s which I'm pretty sure they would count as a "win". Short interest has declined since earlier in the year.

Positive Q3 was widely expected. Citron Research (one of the more well-known Tesla shorts) was among those who saw this coming and publicly not only took profits on their short position but moved into a long position ahead of earnings.

The scale of the positive FCF is however a big shock. It's not clear at this point how much of this was "real" and how much short-term timing or one-off factors. As a big part of the short case was/is a short-term free cashflow/need for funds story, I'm sure this will be picked over in some detail over the next few days.

The longer-term bear case is simply about relative value and harder to assail with one good quarter. Difficult to take a short position on that basis though.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#207

Post by aphextron » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 12:03 AM UTC

Anyone paying any attention in the Bay Area over the last few months has known what the Wall Street shorts and national media don't. Model 3 is an unbelievably massive success. It went from zero on the road, to more common than seeing a BMW 3 series in 6 months.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#208

Post by aphextron » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 12:06 AM UTC

antisthenes wrote: post #27

propman wrote: post #24

Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. The electric revolution is here and it’s finally profitable! Budget EVs with solid range are coming next year too with the 2019 leaf! Convince congress to extend the federal tax rebate (no real increase in spending just keeping what’s already there) by like 2 years which is just maybe $1-2B more and electric will be the wa…

What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell. Time will tell how good of a choice it is.

>What's just as amazing is that this whole revolution is done off the back of the Li-Ion 18650/21700 battery cell.

18650 is the cell form factor, not a specific anode/cathode/electrolyte combo. There have been leaps and bounds in cell chemistry over the last 10 years which have made it possible to build high-end expensive cars, but we still need about double the performance of current tech to achieve true low cost mass adoption. A $45,000 car with 300 miles range is just barely enough to convince well off people to buy a new toy. The first $20,000 EV with 300 miles range will change the world.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#209

Post by Brakenshire » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 12:11 AM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, with 6 bays each, most with a 350kW charging capacity.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#210

Post by JunkDNA » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 12:12 AM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #207

Anyone paying any attention in the Bay Area over the last few months has known what the Wall Street shorts and national media don't. Model 3 is an unbelievably massive success. It went from zero on the road, to more common than seeing a BMW 3 series in 6 months.

I’ve seen a ton of them in suburban Philadelphia (Main Line). I travel to SF frequently and have spent a lot of time in Palo Alto. Model 3’s are at least as common on the roads here in suburban Philly as the Model S was in downtown Palo Alto a year or so ago. I know Tesla’s strategy was to ship close to HQ first and then expand elsewhere. Seeing this many here makes me think they are hitting their stride in a big way.