Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#291

Post by mikeash » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:38 AM UTC

MrStonedOne wrote: post #249

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

As long as they try and control access to them with blacklisting and the like, this is not an advantage. As somebody who will be in the market for a EV in the coming months, I've already discounted Tesla as an option for this reason.

Most people don’t care. You buy a car and you charge it. Blacklisting only happens if you buy a car with a salvage title and repair it, which is not something done by the vast majority of people.

I understand if this drives you away on principle, but you’re not representative.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#292

Post by mikeash » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:39 AM UTC

radiorental wrote: post #196

andrewmunsell wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do, but no one wants to go to one of the few Nissan dealers in their area to charge their car in the event they need it. Not to mention, many dealers only have 1-2 chargers total, which is not sustainable for the number of cars that are (or will be) sold. Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? They wouldn't be comfortable or possibly even welcome at a Nissan dealership to charg…

> Plus, what about the Bolt, Volt, i3, Soul EV, or any number of other EVs? Only teslas can charge on the supercharger network afaik. And, Nissan dealers will let other manufacturers car's charge if you pay, ymmv but it happens. Listen, I'm not defending Nissan's setup, I'm just countering the point that there's only the supercharger network.

Some dealers will let any car charge. Some will only accept Nissans. Some will only accept Nissans they sold. It’s a crapshoot.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#293

Post by tempestn » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:40 AM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Worth noting that although other cars can't use Tesla's supercharger stations, there is an adapter you can get for a couple hundred bucks that will allow you to charge at all of Tesla's 'destination' charging stations.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#294

Post by maxxxxx » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 3:49 AM UTC

crwalker wrote: post #40

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

I winder if the Spuerchargers will at some point become an outdated liability once (if) other manufacturers decide on a standard. Being a first mover often can become a problem.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#295

Post by ajross » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 4:02 AM UTC

qubax wrote: post #267

paulpauper wrote: post #172

Amazing how quickly things can change with Tesla. Just a month ago the sky seemed to be falling, with constant negative press news about the SEC, concerns over Elon Musk's mental health, Tesla losing money, and so on. Had someone shorted Tesla just a week ago based on the media's pessimism, they would be down 20%. of course, Tesla could face problems, but this was a really solid earning report that dispels a lot of t…

It's the neverending battle between the short side and longs when it comes to TSLA. Whenever there is some negative news, the shorts just spam social media. The same with the longs.

> the shorts just spam social media.

And HN. Good lord, some of our threads here were hard to read.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#296

Post by AnthonyMouse » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 4:03 AM UTC

ethagknight wrote: post #288

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

Surely Pilot/Loves/FlyingJ et al will begin installing chargers in the near future. They would love a bunch of captives milling around their travel centers. That’s 1000+ locations, and they could install several thousand charging stalls in a matter of months. Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free superchargin…

> Since the super charger network currently exists, it is a competitive advantage for sure, but it also could become a liability having to honor free supercharging for some cars and then not really providing value over a travel center.

That's assuming they don't become travel centers themselves.

That's actually another advantage. If they build travel centers around their superchargers, anyone with free supercharging (which is a large fraction of the current installed base) would prefer theirs over ones they have to pay for. But then they get all the people milling around buying coffee, burgers, phone chargers, sunscreen, etc.

For that matter they could go into business with the truckstop companies. Supply the charging hardware and expertise to install/operate/maintain them at the truckstops in exchange for a share of the overall take.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#297

Post by FireBeyond » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 4:15 AM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #200

kllrnohj wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla could realistically hit 500,000 cars next year, almost 10% of total cars sold in America. US consumer auto sales per year are in the 16-17 million range. I personally wouldn't consider 3% to be "almost 10%", do you? But I don't think they realistically can hit 500,000 cars next year, either. They moved 70k cars in Q3. There's no reason to believe they can double that in 6 months or so particularly as the Mode…

Elon Musk has reiterated recently that Tesla's goal is to reach Model 3 production of 10,000 per week in 2019. But not all of those sales will be in the US. According to the Q3 update document: "The mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is more than twice as big as the same segment in the US. This is why we are excited to bring Model 3 to Europe early next year. "

The number of auto sales in the US is determined by demand, not by how much auto makers can supply (within price adjustment constraints, of course).

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#298

Post by nemo846 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 4:23 AM UTC

eloff wrote: post #199

jacques_chester wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I think Tesla is fine. But I think Musk is a bit of a wanker and I have an allergic reaction to the hero-worship that's grown around him.

Musk has his faults for sure, and he really needs some people reviewing his twitter posts before they go live. But I find it amusing that people are so quick to point out his faults and criticize the guy when he's accomplished more in his life to date than any single one of his critics, with at most a couple exceptions, like Bezos. Basically if he's a wanker, what's that make you? I don't think it's fallacious reason…

I utterly hate the cult of personality around him.

It makes any kind of discussion impossible.

Look at the person you relied to, his post is already grey.

The guy is kind of a wanker:

https://www.marieclaire.com/sex-love/a5380/millionaire-start...

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/aug/29/elon-musk...

Everyone just give him a free pass which is bullshit.

Personally I think the guy is a narcissist given how much he loves attention. Like most narcissists he will shit on you if you get in his way, right and wrong be damned - something to keep in mind.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#299

Post by FireBeyond » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 4:25 AM UTC

mediaman wrote: post #96

threeseed wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will never understand why Tesla people are so obsessed with short sellers. They exist for every company. And the majority of them would have hedged their bets in some form so it's not like they are likely to lose substantial amounts of money. Tesla almost seems to be similar to Trump in that they need a fictitious enemy to distract the attention away from themselves.

Everyone's got shorts, but Tesla's short position as percent of float is very high, at almost 29%. GM, for example, is under 2%, and Ford around 3%. That makes it a material point of discussion. Second, yes, they are probably hedged. But usually they hedge against correlated securities such as industry competitors so they can hedge away risk they don't want to take (i.e., they have a position against Tesla, but no po…

> Tesla's short position as percent of float is very high, at almost 29%. GM, for example, is under 2%, and Ford around 3%.

Auto comparisons are worthwhile, but equally valid are comparisons to companies of a similar age, not just established stalwarts (for better or worse).

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#300

Post by toomuchtodo » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 4:34 AM UTC

labster wrote: post #284

dpkonofa wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to see them do that. I traded up from an electric Focus that uses the standard chargers and they suck balls. The Tesla is amazing in comparison. Ionity can plan to have all these by 2020 but that doesn't mean they will. Meanwhile, Tesla is already planning upgrades to the Supercharger network and is also constantly adding new locations. I think Tesla will be the one that other EVs turn to and they'll pro…

Licensing the standard has likely been the long-term plan. Since Tesla bought SolarCity and built the gigafactory, Tesla must think of itself as an energy company.

Tesla has always thought of itself as an energy company. Electric cars were to bootstrap battery manufacturing capacity (typically low margin, made high margin by Tesla through selling luxury vehicles). Who would've given Tesla funds (through bonds) to build Gigafactory 1 with no proven demand for those cells produced?

It is why teslamotors.com is now tesla.com