Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#251

Post by dpkonofa » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:25 AM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #185

andrewmunsell wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…

Other carmakers don't need to build their own charging network. It's already being handled for them by thousands of businesses installing standards-compatible chargers. There are 3 new chargers on my block that were installed within the last month. Another 6 scheduled to be installed in my building's garage in the next month. That's in addition to the dozens that are already located in my part of LA. In Santa Monica,…

If you're referring to Blink and Chargepoint chargers, then I'm not worried for Tesla at all. Both of these suck really badly and take forever to charge. I used to use these all the time for my electric Focus and would maybe get 20 miles charged in an hour. With my Tesla, I charged the car up to full in about 20 minutes and it sent me a text with 5 minutes left so I was able to grab a quick bite to eat.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#252

Post by dpkonofa » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:28 AM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #53

crwalker wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

It's funny you say that because that's the exact reason Superchargers exist. The other chargers in question charge incredibly slowly compared to a Supercharger. Teslas main advantage was that they had to foresight to realize that people wouldn't swap to electric vehicles unless they could have a similar experience to pulling up, filling up your tank, and driving off. A Supercharger is the closest thing - 0 to full in 20 to 25 minutes. The Blink/Chargepoint/WhateverElse networks are a full charge in 8 to 12 hours.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#253

Post by dpkonofa » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:30 AM UTC

ensignavenger wrote: post #90

olivermarks wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Unless they can make charging as quick as filling a tank with gas, there is a lot of opportunity in location and surrounding services, provided while the batteries are being charged.

It's almost there. A Supercharger can charge in about 20 minutes and the navigation in the car shows you food stops and amenities near the Supercharger and then sends you a push notification when the car is nearly completely charged. Considering that this experience is more rare than me being able to charge the car every night at home instead of having to stop at a gas station ever, I think the trade off is in Tesla's favor.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#254

Post by dpkonofa » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:32 AM UTC

schiffern wrote: post #246

Obi_Juan_Kenobi wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The comparison to your apartment example would be pay-laundry, not ISPs. ISPs gain monopolies because of the last-mile infrastructure. Charging services are quite interchangeable as electric service is already running to buildings.

>Charging services are quite interchangeable Not for the tenants themselves. Tenants need permission from the owner to install charging infrastructure, and the owner has little incentive to allow competition because the vendor gives them a cut of the [overpriced] charging fee. Even California's progressive tenant EV charger law[1] doesn't apply if 10% (!) of parking spots already have chargers. Your example of pay la…

This is a great point and one that forward-thinking apartment owners need to consider. There's no reason not to start offering much more EV parking and charging residents a premium for it or offering solar-powered EV charging stations.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#255

Post by wilsonchaney » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:33 AM UTC

MrStonedOne wrote: post #249

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

As long as they try and control access to them with blacklisting and the like, this is not an advantage. As somebody who will be in the market for a EV in the coming months, I've already discounted Tesla as an option for this reason.

I mean...that's admirable, but why are you assuming that most of the potential EV buyers will do the same?

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#256

Post by bohm » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:33 AM UTC

mylons wrote: post #244

40acres wrote: post #48

Great numbers and congratulations to Tesla. If we as a country are going to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels companies like Tesla will need to lead the way. Just a side note that Tesla received a ~$500m loan from the US government back in 2009, which was paid back in 2013 (the loan went out to some other automakers for electric vehicle R&D), and I believe the tax break on electric cars are still valid. Tesla is…

we are basically living Dune until we're off petroleum from Saudi Arabia.

We are off petroleum from Saudi Arabia. The US now is a net petrol exporter thanks to fracking. We have the cheapest oil in the world.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#257

Post by ryacko » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:44 AM UTC

dpkonofa wrote: post #252

olivermarks wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

It's funny you say that because that's the exact reason Superchargers exist. The other chargers in question charge incredibly slowly compared to a Supercharger. Teslas main advantage was that they had to foresight to realize that people wouldn't swap to electric vehicles unless they could have a similar experience to pulling up, filling up your tank, and driving off. A Supercharger is the closest thing - 0 to full in…

Realistically, people who could afford an electric car are more likely to take a plane and rent a car when traveling, unless they travel all the time as part of their job, then they’d be using ridesharing exclusively.

But people tend to be dominated by edge cases instead of giving up a small amount of mobility.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#258

Post by nickik » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:46 AM UTC

Brakenshire wrote: post #229

andrewmunsell wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, 2400 bays in total, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, 2400 bays total, most with a 350kW charging capacity, which is double the power of Tesla’s chargers. There are also about 5000 CCS chargers already existing in Europe, lower power but ‘destination chargers’ will probably be valuabl…

So they say that in a couple years in a time the market is moving fast. Given Tesla experience with these chargers, its quite difficult to handle the whole cycle of regulatory approval, build and operation.

So far I have heard a lot of announcements about great cars and great charging networks from these companies but nothing they have actually done gives me any confidence.

People also said that the other car makers will switch the electric and start building electric cars in mass easily and quickly. So far however most of these projects have seen delays and other problems.

I would also say that all the 'lower' level chargers will benefit Tesla equally to everybody else, so its no intensive to buy a non-Tesla.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#259

Post by nickik » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:48 AM UTC

olivermarks wrote: post #53

crwalker wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...

Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power

Technology always starts out exclusive and then is then broadens out. Tesla network gives them a huge advantage because now they are in control over how this process is gone happen.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#260

Post by dpkonofa » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:49 AM UTC

ryacko wrote: post #257

dpkonofa wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's funny you say that because that's the exact reason Superchargers exist. The other chargers in question charge incredibly slowly compared to a Supercharger. Teslas main advantage was that they had to foresight to realize that people wouldn't swap to electric vehicles unless they could have a similar experience to pulling up, filling up your tank, and driving off. A Supercharger is the closest thing - 0 to full in…

Realistically, people who could afford an electric car are more likely to take a plane and rent a car when traveling, unless they travel all the time as part of their job, then they’d be using ridesharing exclusively. But people tend to be dominated by edge cases instead of giving up a small amount of mobility.

>people who could afford an electric car are more likely to take a plane and rent a car when traveling, unless they travel all the time as part of their job, then they’d be using ridesharing exclusively.

What is this based on? I know several people with electric cars and none of us take planes and rent cars on trips unless they're to another country. I drive to California and Austin all the time and the Tesla is the first car that I don't have to stay the night charging for.