Great news but I have to ask. Maybe someone here can share their view/opinion about the market and what’s going on. Musk can’t tweet about going private. So a major short seller sue him and Tesla. Stock ”crash” during two months. Short seller completly turn around and now long the stock which rises A DAY before this report? Eyebrows should be raised so high everyone go bald. Where Will this end with SEC? And How is t…
This is called late economic cycle hysteria. No rules. I've been through two of them, things get crazier.
How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...
>electric charging will become a commodity Alas, I would have thought the same for ISPs. Any reason why EV charging won't naturally evolve into a similar overpriced, regulator capturing, locale-by-locale monopoly? I'm talking about the subset of the EV owners without home charging. Currently this number is small, but as battery prices drop and EVs become the de-facto 'regular car,' there's ~60% of the population who…
The thing is ISPs almost became a commodity until we figured out we could get higher speeds with cable infrastructure. We all remember the local phone company offering dial-up back in the 90s. In many European countries, ISPs are a commodity since the owners of the cable have to provide access to anyone at reasonable market rates.
That's why the fight for net neutrality is so important.
Err... they have $3B cash and that increased $731M Q3. So I don't see why there would be any short term issues with those other numbers.
They have $3B cash, but owe their suppliers a total of $3.5 Billion right now. (Accounts payable). There's a LOT of assets / liabilities to juggle. Tesla also has $1.5 Billion of incoming cash (Accounts receivable), which is basically people who are currently in the process of paying Tesla right now. But in any case: Tesla's liquid liabilities are larger than their liquid assets. Its a bad spot to be in for sure. Its…
You forgot Tesla's $3.3 billion in inventory. Their liabilities are greater than their assets to the tune of $1.7 billion. That plus the $4.2 billion in bonds is $5.9 billion in debt.
Subtract the $3 billion in cash and they'll need to come up with $2.9 billion between now and March of 2022, which is $.2+ billion per quarter.
Edit - Double counted cash. It should be $.4+ billion per quarter.
Wouldn't it be awful if you could only buy Ford gasoline from Ford gas stations? The lock in model is attractive until you think about broader implication, I agree with Evans too that it will be a commodity race to the bottom for recharging, with cost introduced for the power
General Motors owns a patent on leaded gasoline. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/gm-engineers-dis...
Invented by the same person that invented Freon, too. Talented chemical engineer but possibly the most harmful human to have ever lived by some metrics.
when i visited china, it was filled with electric cars from multiple manufacturers, and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla. i don't view tesla as beyond anyone. when other car manufacturers enter the market, tesla might have a hard time keeping up because other manufacturers know how to build cars and not just an okay car with an electric motor.
> and the fit and finish was just as good if not better than tesla Tesla has the worst fit & finish in the industry. It always comes up with every tear down & deep review of a Tesla car. Tesla's powertrain is largely the only thing they are good at, and has so far been the thing other car manufacturers have struggled to match.
The other thing they are very good at is marketing, both to consumers and to potential employees. I think this is largely thanks to the cult of personality around Elon Musk. I don’t really mean that in a bad way either.
If they can retain the engineering talent that has been making their cars (which is by no means guaranteed, from the stories I’ve heard of working conditions) then I think they have a good chance of catching up in the areas where they currently lag behind other companies.
$2 Billion? I'm only aware of the $920 Million due in March 2019. Is there another major bond worth discussing? > $1.2B increase in payables That's a yearly increase. $500M-ish increase between Q2 -> Q3. I think its reasonable to expect payables to go up as they ramp up from 2000 M3/week to 4000 M3/week, but the number still gives me worry. I think you're right to worry about these numbers. But its important to worry…
Actually there are a lot of bonds outstanding Per http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ff... they have $230 million due in Nov 2018, $920 million due in March 2019, $560 million due in Nov 2019, $113 million due in Dec 2020, $1,380 million due March 2021, and $977.5 million due in March 2022. Plus coupons on all of these payable regularly between now and then. By my count this totals $4.1805 bill…
Your comment got me interested and I was looking at this March 2021 bond issuance. Does anyone know how in the world Tesla was able to borrow over $1.3B at 1.25%?
There must be some special case here.
Who would loan money to Tesla below the rate they could get in risk free t-bills?
Great news but I have to ask. Maybe someone here can share their view/opinion about the market and what’s going on. Musk can’t tweet about going private. So a major short seller sue him and Tesla. Stock ”crash” during two months. Short seller completly turn around and now long the stock which rises A DAY before this report? Eyebrows should be raised so high everyone go bald. Where Will this end with SEC? And How is t…
The problem wasn't that Musk can't tweet about going private. The problem was that he made a false claim about planning to go private in a direct and bald-faced attempt to manipulate the stock to the detriment of short-sellers. As a CEO in charge of the company, he doesn't get to lie to the public, his shareholders, or putative shareholders, about what he plans to do. He doesn't have to tell them everything--but he a…
Can you explain why he is not allowed to? I don’t understand the justification behind the regulations / laws here
How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...
>electric charging will become a commodity Alas, I would have thought the same for ISPs. Any reason why EV charging won't naturally evolve into a similar overpriced, regulator capturing, locale-by-locale monopoly? I'm talking about the subset of the EV owners without home charging. Currently this number is small, but as battery prices drop and EVs become the de-facto 'regular car,' there's ~60% of the population who…
The comparison to your apartment example would be pay-laundry, not ISPs. ISPs gain monopolies because of the last-mile infrastructure. Charging services are quite interchangeable as electric service is already running to buildings.
How long do you think the current Supercharger network will be a large competitive advantage? I agree with Benedict Evan's point that electric charging will become a commodity: https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-soft...
Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…
Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, 2400 bays in total, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, 2400 bays total, most with a 350kW charging capacity, which is double the power of Tesla’s chargers. There are also about 5000 CCS chargers already existing in Europe, lower power but ‘destination chargers’ will probably be valuable as well. Tesla plans to double its network over this time frame, but Ionity is just one organization, there will be many smaller players as well, both commercial and government. It seems very likely this advantage will be commodified as the market emerges.
Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…
Other carmakers don't need to build their own charging network. It's already being handled for them by thousands of businesses installing standards-compatible chargers. There are 3 new chargers on my block that were installed within the last month. Another 6 scheduled to be installed in my building's garage in the next month. That's in addition to the dozens that are already located in my part of LA. In Santa Monica,…
Destination chargers are normally much slower charging and are not really usable for a long trip. Good for overnight but nobody wants to charge a half hour for every hour on the road.