Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#241

Post by btilly » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:01 AM UTC

dragontamer wrote: post #236

btilly wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your claim seems optimistic given that at the current after hours share price, only the December 2020 issue would convert. And just a few hours ago it would not have. Yes, it is possible that in March Tesla could be trading around over 20% above what it was most of today, but it would be unwise to depend on it.

I'm not actually keen on the details of the March 2019 bond. A lot of people seem to think its a mandatory conversion (ie: it ALWAYS turns into stock). If its a mandatory convertible, then Tesla pays it off in shares proportional to the value assuming Tesla was $360ish in price. So you "can't lose", you'll get 33% more stocks if TSLA was only $270 to ensure the bond-holder doesn't lose money. I haven't been able to v…

I believe that they are not mandatory.

First because articles like http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-musk-convertible-bonds... indicate that they are not. And also because the potential dilution indicated in the Tesla statement that I linked to shows zero dilution if the stock prices is not sufficient for them to convert.

But realizing the huge financial consequences for the company of having the stock price high does shed light on why Elon is so eager to push his stock price up. He would much rather pay in stock than cash.

Incidentally the LA Times article indicates that there is a lot more debt than just the issues I listed. That's a list of all of Tesla's convertible debt. But not all of it is convertible...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#242

Post by pandapower2 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:05 AM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

>One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars.

Its electric scooters rather than electric cars but Gogoro in Taiwan has built out a network of charging stations for the vehicles they sell. 810 "gostations" according to their website.

https://www.gogoro.com/smart-energy/

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#243

Post by jjgod » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:17 AM UTC

pandapower2 wrote: post #242

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

>One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Its electric scooters rather than electric cars but Gogoro in Taiwan has built out a network of charging stations for the vehicles they sell. 810 "gostations" according to their website. https://www.gogoro.com…

810 stations in Taiwan. While Tesla built a global network.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#244

Post by mylons » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:18 AM UTC

40acres wrote: post #48

Great numbers and congratulations to Tesla. If we as a country are going to lessen our dependence on fossil fuels companies like Tesla will need to lead the way. Just a side note that Tesla received a ~$500m loan from the US government back in 2009, which was paid back in 2013 (the loan went out to some other automakers for electric vehicle R&D), and I believe the tax break on electric cars are still valid. Tesla is…

we are basically living Dune until we're off petroleum from Saudi Arabia.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#245

Post by hydro2 » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:19 AM UTC

samfisher83 wrote: post #173

hydroreadsstuff wrote: post #61

The revenue for one quarter seems high. Did they carry over some sales from the past or is there something it drawing from future quarters? Edit: Congratz!

Well You can't count future sales as revenue. To recognize revenue you have to deliver the product. Here are the things from wikipedia: Risks and rewards have been transferred from the seller to the buyer The seller has no control over the goods sold Collection of payment is reasonably assured The amount of revenue can be reasonably measured Costs of earning the revenue can be reasonably measured

I see, thanks. So you could delay deliveries.

They claim to remain profitable next quarter. Which is a good sign. I just couldn’t help noticing. I also don’t see an expected revenue for next quarter.

Crossing my fingers for them.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#246

Post by schiffern » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:20 AM UTC

Obi_Juan_Kenobi wrote: post #228

schiffern wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>electric charging will become a commodity Alas, I would have thought the same for ISPs. Any reason why EV charging won't naturally evolve into a similar overpriced, regulator capturing, locale-by-locale monopoly? I'm talking about the subset of the EV owners without home charging. Currently this number is small, but as battery prices drop and EVs become the de-facto 'regular car,' there's ~60% of the population who…

The comparison to your apartment example would be pay-laundry, not ISPs. ISPs gain monopolies because of the last-mile infrastructure. Charging services are quite interchangeable as electric service is already running to buildings.

>Charging services are quite interchangeable

Not for the tenants themselves.

Tenants need permission from the owner to install charging infrastructure, and the owner has little incentive to allow competition because the vendor gives them a cut of the [overpriced] charging fee. Even California's progressive tenant EV charger law[1] doesn't apply if 10% (!) of parking spots already have chargers.

Your example of pay laundry is instructive. In theory laundry service remains interchangeable (after all, "water/electric service is already running to the buildings"), but in practice the owner simply forbids tenants from installing their own laundry machines (typically citing flood risk).

[1] https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml...

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#247

Post by mlindner » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:21 AM UTC

Brakenshire wrote: post #229

andrewmunsell wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, 2400 bays in total, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, 2400 bays total, most with a 350kW charging capacity, which is double the power of Tesla’s chargers. There are also about 5000 CCS chargers already existing in Europe, lower power but ‘destination chargers’ will probably be valuabl…

All chargers are not created equal. "Planning" to build something is not building it. 350kW is a lot of energy and you need to pay for all the power electronics to run that much DC power.

I have no doubt the'll start building chargers but I think the ramp up will be slower and the power levels will be lower than what people think. Most cars can't even charge at 350kW because their batteries are too small. You'd damage the batteries.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#248

Post by dpkonofa » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:23 AM UTC

Brakenshire wrote: post #229

andrewmunsell wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually, yes, it will become a commodity. But the issue is, someone has to spend a lot of money to build out these chargers. Tesla has a big incentive to do it-- their very survival depended on early adopters willing to buy their car, which also means they need a place to charge it. Being able to go 100 miles from your house before you have to turn around was never going to work for car owners, hence Tesla's initi…

Tesla currently has 400 supercharger sites in Europe, 2400 bays in total, by 2020 Ionity, which is a consortium of Daimler, BMW, Porsche, Ford, Audi and VW, is planning to build 400 sites, 2400 bays total, most with a 350kW charging capacity, which is double the power of Tesla’s chargers. There are also about 5000 CCS chargers already existing in Europe, lower power but ‘destination chargers’ will probably be valuabl…

I would love to see them do that. I traded up from an electric Focus that uses the standard chargers and they suck balls. The Tesla is amazing in comparison. Ionity can plan to have all these by 2020 but that doesn't mean they will. Meanwhile, Tesla is already planning upgrades to the Supercharger network and is also constantly adding new locations. I think Tesla will be the one that other EVs turn to and they'll probably have to license the standard.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#249

Post by MrStonedOne » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:23 AM UTC

andrewmunsell wrote: post #32

One massive advantage that I'm not sure most people realize quite yet is the Supercharger network. No manufacturer (other than Porsche talking about it recently) has actually built out chargers for their cars. Every other electric car has to rely on a broken, sparse, expensive charger network. Blink chargers and some ChargePoint chargers are expensive in many places ($2 an hour!), and Blink is notorious for having br…

As long as they try and control access to them with blacklisting and the like, this is not an advantage.

As somebody who will be in the market for a EV in the coming months, I've already discounted Tesla as an option for this reason.

Re: Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update [pdf]

#250

Post by mlindner » Thu, Oct 25, 2018, 1:24 AM UTC

saagarjha wrote: post #91

Mongus wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's aren't locked into using Tesla chargers. They do have a proprietary connector on the vehicles but they come with several adapters including J1772. Superchargers are a phenomenal perk, not a lock in.

Are Superchargers free to use by people who have not bought Teslas?

In the US they can't even be used because the plug is different. Even if it weren't the superchargers access Tesla's services to hand over payment information when you plug in.