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Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

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Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#121

Post by prostoalex »

gamblor956 wrote: post #108
reissbaker wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need a charging network to fix range anxiety, and infrastructure to make batteries at scale. Charging network the major brands don't really have an answer for yet. And as for batteries, the major brands are still stuck at the small batch, high end segment of the market, because no one makes enough batteries to tackle the lower ends of the market except Tesla — everyone else just buys their batteries from Asia. BM…

BMW sold nearly 600k each of the last few years, so even if "only" a quarter of their sales are EV, that's still almost as many cars as Tesla sells each year. And that's just one competitor out of a dozen, all of whom have significantly more marketing muscle and better supply chain and maintenance networks than Tesla.

> and better supply chain

Curious how well that will work with shift to electric.

Tesla claims that spending so much on Gigafactory will give them the lowest cost per kWh compared to everyone else.

Someone like GM might be a big kahuna in the internal combustion world, but as far as buying lithium ion batteries on the open market they will have to line up behind Tesla, Apple, Samsung, home battery companies and those no-name Amazon brands building power banks.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#122

Post by prostoalex »

gamblor956 wrote: post #105
crunchyfrog wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course the narrative has changed because Tesla's success has forced it to change but the underlying conclusion (i.e. "Tesla is doomed") has remained the same through out. It would be ridiculous if they were still running articles about how Tesla will never build the Model S or the Model 3 or reach 5,000 cars a week or are always bursting into flames or whatever because reality has proved them wrong time and again.…

Tesla still hasn't consistently hit 5000 cars a week. They've so far only managed this for about 3-4 weeks, split up between two roughly fortnight-lengths periods at the end of quarters. It's possible they managed to hit this milestone in Q3, but based on past PR behavior if they had they would have let the world know by now. The naysayers were never saying that Tesla would never build a Model S or Model 3, you're ju…

The 5,000 mark seems to be a red herring, though. Tesla has lined up European and Chinese factories (latter one seems to be accelerated due to tariffs) and copying existing processes to new factories is something that seems doable.

So even if Fremont stays at 4,500 forever, they could double or triple worldwide weekly production by just completing the factory build outs.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#123

Post by superfrank »

crunchyfrog wrote: post #75
superfrank wrote: post #41

This article seems to be saying that Tesla is in a good place because they build good, popular cars and electric vehicles are the future. Maybe, I'm reading different news stories than the author, but I don't feel like those are criticisms of Tesla that I'm seeing anymore. Pretty much every current news story I'm seeing is either focusing on Tesla running out of money because their cars aren't profitable enough, or t…

Of course the narrative has changed because Tesla's success has forced it to change but the underlying conclusion (i.e. "Tesla is doomed") has remained the same through out. It would be ridiculous if they were still running articles about how Tesla will never build the Model S or the Model 3 or reach 5,000 cars a week or are always bursting into flames or whatever because reality has proved them wrong time and again.…

The validity of previous criticisms of Tesla don't negate current criticisms of Tesla. You don't get to say, well the media was wrong about Tesla last time, so they will be wrong about it next time. Sure, if there is a history of them being wrong (which the author claims there is), it can be part of your argument, but it can't be the entire argument.

It seems we both agree that not many people are currently criticizing Tesla for making bad cars, or not being able to hit production goals, or that electric cars aren't useful, yet this whole article focuses on refuting those points.

IMO, it seems most of the current criticisms of Tesla are that Elon Musk's antics on Twitter are hurting the company and that they aren't yet profitable and have some big debt payments due in the near future. The author of the post has done nothing to respond to those points, which is why I feel this is a straw man.

Look at it this way, even if you think there is a media campaign to make Tesla and Elon look bad, and all these criticisms are just pulled out of thin air, a broken clock is still right twice a day. You can't just say, well they are out to get Tesla because, even if they are, that doesn't mean what they say isn't true.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#124

Post by omgwtfbyobbq »

throwaway2016a wrote: post #3

I actually really want to buy a Model 3 but these stories that Tesla has a bridge note due in March that they may not be able to cover have me concerned. If I buy a car I want to make sure the company is around to service it. I don't see this article covering that particular article. In fact the word "debt" appears nowhere in it. Edit: I'm actually asking someone to prove the debt issue wrong if they can. It is liter…

If you're worried, I'd wait until the Q3 earnings call early next month. Their short term finances mostly hinge on the Model 3's margin.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#125

Post by chemmail »

kidsnow wrote: post #116
sokoloff wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried to find "truly new" models (rather than generation refreshes or name changes). The first five I thought of were the Lexus RX SUV, the Fiat 500, the Mini Cooper, the 1965 Mustang, the 2015 Mustang (a ground-up re-platform, not a restyling effort). It would be possible to argue that Tesla outproduced the Mini Cooper (depending on how exactly you shade the first year of production). The others handily beat them,…

Which year Lexus RX are you referring to? The Lexus RX SUV has been around a long time, and was originally based on a car platform which I believe was the Toyota Camry / Lexus ES platform.

The RX was released in 98 but was really a rebadged Toyota Harrier and came out a year prior in JDM.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#126

Post by chemmail »

sokoloff wrote: post #90
jaawn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which models did you look at? I don't remember a lot of models that are new to the market recently. I checked the Mazda CX-3 and the Nissan Leaf, and the Model 3 does appear to have crushed both of those based on first year numbers.

I tried to find "truly new" models (rather than generation refreshes or name changes). The first five I thought of were the Lexus RX SUV, the Fiat 500, the Mini Cooper, the 1965 Mustang, the 2015 Mustang (a ground-up re-platform, not a restyling effort). It would be possible to argue that Tesla outproduced the Mini Cooper (depending on how exactly you shade the first year of production). The others handily beat them,…

You could argue the '65 Stang was a cheap Falcon. So they had everything in place, just changed up the bodywork.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#127

Post by goshx »

Latteland wrote: post #112
goshx wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the disclaimer. Obviously the NHTSA does not want the trouble, but the "lowest probability of injury" came from their tests. Apparently they were not supposed to make this public. Truth is, comparing the videos side by side with other 5 star rating vehicles it is pretty clear which one is safer.

I think the fair comparison is something like above a certain level nhtsa wants to say they are all good with little to distinguish them, but there are numeric differences. Like rating a moving from 1 to 5 stars. There is little discernable difference between a 4.8 and 4.9, but you could say "rated better than that 4.8 movie". I think tesla was the top on some numeric scale and nhtsa doesn't want to talk about small…

The thing is... the difference is significant.

Check this video out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uxw_LSPBlGo

There are many others.

The current 5 star cars were the best available in the industry, but it does not mean that nothing significantly better can exist. Tesla is pushing the industry forward with this.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#128

Post by sokoloff »

chemmail wrote: post #126
sokoloff wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tried to find "truly new" models (rather than generation refreshes or name changes). The first five I thought of were the Lexus RX SUV, the Fiat 500, the Mini Cooper, the 1965 Mustang, the 2015 Mustang (a ground-up re-platform, not a restyling effort). It would be possible to argue that Tesla outproduced the Mini Cooper (depending on how exactly you shade the first year of production). The others handily beat them,…

You could argue the '65 Stang was a cheap Falcon. So they had everything in place, just changed up the bodywork.

Is the Model 3 just a cheaper Model S by the same argument?

(It's a genuine question. Yes, the Mustang was based in part on the prior Falcon platform. Wouldn't Tesla sensibly base the 3 in part on the S in the same way Ford continued to sell the Falcon alongside the Mustang? If Tesla is sharing literally nothing across models, that seems like a non-sensical way to run a car company to me.)

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#129

Post by reissbaker »

gamblor956 wrote: post #108
reissbaker wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need a charging network to fix range anxiety, and infrastructure to make batteries at scale. Charging network the major brands don't really have an answer for yet. And as for batteries, the major brands are still stuck at the small batch, high end segment of the market, because no one makes enough batteries to tackle the lower ends of the market except Tesla — everyone else just buys their batteries from Asia. BM…

BMW sold nearly 600k each of the last few years, so even if "only" a quarter of their sales are EV, that's still almost as many cars as Tesla sells each year. And that's just one competitor out of a dozen, all of whom have significantly more marketing muscle and better supply chain and maintenance networks than Tesla.

I agree with what other posters have said in response to this comment, but also: what you're implying is that what BMW will be able sell in 2025 is equivalent to what Tesla already sold in 2018. By 2020 Tesla will already have launched the Model Y, and by 2025 no doubt many other popular lines such as the planned pickup truck, and significantly expanded their battery manufacturing capacity: they're already building new Gigafactories, in seven years who knows how many they'll have. Seven years ago they only sold Roadsters; now their North American sales numbers are on par with the Honda Accord.

Aiming to sell in seven years what Tesla sells today isn't going to be enough to catch up. No doubt someone will turn into the Google and Samsung to Tesla's Apple; this isn't a winner-take-all market. But it seems like Tesla's pretty far ahead and still accelerating, so there'll be quite a few Kodaks along the way too.

TBH I don't think the biggest danger to Tesla comes from BMW or VW going electric — it's from Alphabet's Waymo and GM's Cruise going self-driving. That's a potentially huge industry shakeup, and is an area where Tesla doesn't necessarily have an advantage... Although considering the amount of data Tesla collects for free from every car (each one has onboard LTE and WiFi — that the customer paid for! — and uses it to collect and upload driving data for Autopilot), they might be able to compete. We'll see. Their big bet here is that they can use their data collection abilities to advance the state of the art in computer vision fast enough that they don't need lidar, which is a controversial opinion; TBH I think it's a no-brainer that eventually it's possible — humans navigate with only two eyes, whereas the cars have eight eyes and a radar, and never get tired, bored, or drunk — but I don't know if they'll get there faster than Waymo and Cruise can build out their proposed fleets. That being said, if Tesla's right, they'll be right in a way that gives them a pretty serious additional moat beyond battery manufacturing capacity: lidar is much more expensive than radar, and Tesla would be the only firm able to operate with that cost advantage since everyone else teched into lidar.

Anyway, I don't think BMW (or anyone) will beat Tesla merely by going electric. They might still die, but not from that.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#130

Post by reissbaker »

Animats wrote: post #92
_ph_ wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, we don't know whether the production is "all over the place". Your are quoting the weekly numbers from the Bloomberg tracker. But this tracker does not know about actual production numbers. It mostly looks at VIN allocation, which is not directly coupled to production numbers. Typically, Tesla allocates about 30% more VINs than the production numbers. Based on that, Bloomberg came close to the total qua…

Ford's Rouge plant has a steel mill. Iron ore comes in via barge. They have a glass plant. A power plant. A casting plant. An engine plant. Now that's vertical integration.

Ford also sold (far) fewer cars of any model in North America than Tesla did, and is exiting the market minus the Focus Active and the Mustang, retreating to just SUVs and trucks.
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