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Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

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Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#101

Post by sokoloff »

jaawn wrote: post #46
peeters wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot harder to quantify "ramp-up" for these models too, because they almost never have a bare starting point. E.g. CX-3 is (IIRC) based on the Mazda2 platform, so do you include the preceding Mazda2 ramp-up in the number? Still it's the pro-Tesla person that's making the claim; the onus is on them to provide the numbers or if it's not a fair comparison, to avoid it (or clarify it).

I guess that is fair, but according to this carsalesbase.com site, it isn't even remotely close. Tesla has built/sold more Model 3s in its first year of production than anything else I can find...by a lot. They built/sold more in the past few months than entire years for all of the other models I have checked. That's why I asked what models the other person looked at because so far all of the information I can see fr…

Ford sold ~559,500 1965 Mustangs in a much smaller overall market.

Chevy sold over 200K Corvairs each of the three first years of launch.

First 12 months deliveries of Tesla Model 3 were a little over 26K. First 15 months deliveries (which is more apples-to-apples with other company "first year" launches) were a little over 80K.

It's not even close, IMO... Do you see the figures differently?

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#102

Post by sokoloff »

jaawn wrote: post #50
pkulak wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'd imagine a new Rav4 or CR-V model goes from 0 to 10,000 a week pretty damn fast and with little to no fanfare.

That isn't a "new" model with all of the uncertainty that goes along with it though. Rav4 and CR-V have established reputations, entrenched supply chains, etc... A better comparison would be brand new models, not refreshed old models.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18223847

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#103

Post by singingboyo »

kbenson wrote: post #73
mapgrep wrote: post #72

I decided to just look into an assertion from the first paragraph of this post: "NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order." This is linked to a news article on "CleanTechnica," sourced to the Tesla corporate blog. Notably, the blog does not claim that these vehicles are #1,2,3 in the rankings, but rather that in p…

> But it turns out NHTSA disputes even Tesla's more mild assertions: I think it's worth noting that neither are contradicting each other, as they are saying different things. Tesla says NHTSA testing shows something, which may have nothing to do with specifically what the NHTSA says or how it rates. If they have access to the actual test data (or the tests are publicly available), they can make assertions off that da…

This was my impression as well, in that what I've read suggests Tesla is making claims on the basis of percentage chance of injury from NHTSA data, but NHTSA does not take a position on whether differences in those percentages is significant.

I can't say I've verified the percentages myself though, nor do I have the requisite understanding to say whether there are margins of error present (which would make Tesla's claims correct but potentially statistically meaningless.)

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#104

Post by sokoloff »

_ea1k wrote: post #62
sokoloff wrote: post #13

> Tesla has achieved enormous results in ramping up its Model 3 production faster than almost any new model car in history. That defies my gut feel, so I checked on carsalesbase to confirm/refute. Nearly any new car model that I look at far outsells the Model 3 during new model ramp up... http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-...

It didn't match my "gut feel" either, but I'm having a hard time finding a good case of a faster rampup in that data. I don't think a minor refresh would count. Can you cite an example?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18223847 and

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18223341

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#105

Post by gamblor956 »

crunchyfrog wrote: post #75
superfrank wrote: post #41

This article seems to be saying that Tesla is in a good place because they build good, popular cars and electric vehicles are the future. Maybe, I'm reading different news stories than the author, but I don't feel like those are criticisms of Tesla that I'm seeing anymore. Pretty much every current news story I'm seeing is either focusing on Tesla running out of money because their cars aren't profitable enough, or t…

Of course the narrative has changed because Tesla's success has forced it to change but the underlying conclusion (i.e. "Tesla is doomed") has remained the same through out. It would be ridiculous if they were still running articles about how Tesla will never build the Model S or the Model 3 or reach 5,000 cars a week or are always bursting into flames or whatever because reality has proved them wrong time and again.…

Tesla still hasn't consistently hit 5000 cars a week. They've so far only managed this for about 3-4 weeks, split up between two roughly fortnight-lengths periods at the end of quarters. It's possible they managed to hit this milestone in Q3, but based on past PR behavior if they had they would have let the world know by now.

The naysayers were never saying that Tesla would never build a Model S or Model 3, you're just creating false strawmen to tear down. The naysayers were always saying that Tesla wouldn't be able to make cars profitably, which to date it has not by industry-standard metrics or the generally accepted accounting principles (i.e., GAAP) most companies use (and definitely not under IFRS standards, which most non-US companies use).

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#106

Post by Latteland »

sokoloff wrote: post #13

> Tesla has achieved enormous results in ramping up its Model 3 production faster than almost any new model car in history. That defies my gut feel, so I checked on carsalesbase to confirm/refute. Nearly any new car model that I look at far outsells the Model 3 during new model ramp up... http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-...

Can you provide a specific example? I looked through several different cars and can't tell what you are referring to. It depends on what year you look at and when the refresh happened. There are cars that outsell tesla, (like the very popular and reliable econobox basics from Toyota and Honda). But Tesla is outselling on actual model year sales most other cars with the model 3. If you exclude the top 3 or 4 cars in the us (honda/toyota civic, corolla, accord camry), tesla appears to be outselling all the rest, and I don't see bumps like Tesla's if you go outside the top 4. Maybe you were looking at trucks? Trucks sell an amazing number, but Tesla isn't in that segment, & I think it's reasonable to compare just to sedans.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#107

Post by Latteland »

sokoloff wrote: post #101
jaawn wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess that is fair, but according to this carsalesbase.com site, it isn't even remotely close. Tesla has built/sold more Model 3s in its first year of production than anything else I can find...by a lot. They built/sold more in the past few months than entire years for all of the other models I have checked. That's why I asked what models the other person looked at because so far all of the information I can see fr…

Ford sold ~559,500 1965 Mustangs in a much smaller overall market. Chevy sold over 200K Corvairs each of the three first years of launch. First 12 months deliveries of Tesla Model 3 were a little over 26K. First 15 months deliveries (which is more apples-to-apples with other company "first year" launches) were a little over 80K. It's not even close, IMO... Do you see the figures differently?

Those are high numbers, wow, and Tesla hardly started producing them in mass until mid year 2018. They could get to 50k a calendar year if Q3 holds. Just for estimation purposes let's use that. It's hard to believe they'd do as well as one of the best selling cars of all time, but they are in a different segment too. Tesla is selling cars that are more expensive than average, maybe a more fair comparison is the bmw 3 series, audi 3 or 4 series type cars. At least Tesla is doing pretty well at the current moment, but they are not doing as well as Mustang or Corvair - some of the best selling cars of all time.

Tesla has been limited by production of batteries and cars, now they have scaled those a lot. But they aren't the fastest of history, that seems clear. Unless they suddenly sell 125k cars a quarter they won't catch Mustang.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#108

Post by gamblor956 »

reissbaker wrote: post #98
threeseed wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tesla will make or break on the production rate and the profitability per car Sure. For now. But every car company is releasing electric cars over the next few years. Many of which look like serious threats against Tesla's more profitable models. Electric as a differentiator will disappear and all that will be left is (a) brand, (b) design, (c) quality, (d) service. None of which Tesla is better than its competitor…

You need a charging network to fix range anxiety, and infrastructure to make batteries at scale. Charging network the major brands don't really have an answer for yet. And as for batteries, the major brands are still stuck at the small batch, high end segment of the market, because no one makes enough batteries to tackle the lower ends of the market except Tesla — everyone else just buys their batteries from Asia. BM…

BMW sold nearly 600k each of the last few years, so even if "only" a quarter of their sales are EV, that's still almost as many cars as Tesla sells each year. And that's just one competitor out of a dozen, all of whom have significantly more marketing muscle and better supply chain and maintenance networks than Tesla.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#109

Post by Latteland »

stephengillie wrote: post #55
pkulak wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'd imagine a new Rav4 or CR-V model goes from 0 to 10,000 a week pretty damn fast and with little to no fanfare.

Toyota sells 1/2 million Camrys a year. For Model 3 to reach that level, Tesla will have to produce 10,000 a week.

The stated goal of tesla is to make 10k of them a week, instead of the current 4-5k. I worry that will be too many, there can't be that much demand can there? At least there's a lot of demand at the moment.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#110

Post by gamblor956 »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #53
throwawayosiu1 wrote: post #9

Just as a note, the author is from CleanTechnica. They are known to be extremely pro-tesla. Best case scenario - most of their articles quietly ignore the downside and prop up the upside. Worst case - they lie or embellish the truth. Disclosure: I've followed both bulls & bears for almost 6 months - and I've got quite a lot riding in short positions.

I saw a graph on one of the pro-Tesla sites that basically showed that the Tesla debt is to scale with the rampup of the Model 3 production, and that it isn't out of proportion for the scale of what the production scale of the Model3. And the scale now is above profitability. Is that not true?

That is not true. Tesla still hasn't paid off its debt from the Model X, the Model S, the Gigafactory, or the Supercharger network. They might have managed to achieve positive cash flow with respect to Model 3 specific investments, but that doesn't mean they generating anywhere near the level of cash they need to pay off past debts.
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