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Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

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Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#81

Post by threeseed »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #56
prostoalex wrote: post #6

As much as I'd like the company to succeed, it seems frivolous to dismiss the concerns as short sellers' PR projects and media's desire to drive traffic through clickbait. Bond markets are largely dominated by institutional players who've seen every PR trick in the book, pay astute attention to fundamentals in hopes of finding a minuscule mispricing opportunity, and even they are not treating TSLA positively https://…

Does that show the debt servicing costs vs the expected profitability of the current production pace? The August/September production numbers were pretty robust, and given the profit margin on the current models I could see the debt being serviced. The tweets and executives leaving are just drama. Tesla will make or break on the production rate and the profitability per car, both of which seemed on target, but I have…

> Tesla will make or break on the production rate and the profitability per car

Sure. For now.

But every car company is releasing electric cars over the next few years. Many of which look like serious threats against Tesla's more profitable models. Electric as a differentiator will disappear and all that will be left is (a) brand, (b) design, (c) quality, (d) service. None of which Tesla is better than its competitors at. And you need executives around to be able to resolve this.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#82

Post by goshx »

csours wrote: post #71

Disclaimer up front: I work for a Tesla competitor, any opinions are solely my own. From the linked article: > "And now NHTSA testing shows that the #1, #2 and #3 cars with the lowest likelihood of injury in a collision are the Tesla Models 3, X and S in that order." https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-nhtsa-safet... https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/national-highway-traffi... > "NHTSA does not distin…

Thanks for the disclaimer.

Obviously the NHTSA does not want the trouble, but the "lowest probability of injury" came from their tests. Apparently they were not supposed to make this public.

Truth is, comparing the videos side by side with other 5 star rating vehicles it is pretty clear which one is safer.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#83

Post by paulornothing »

throwaway2016a wrote: post #3

I actually really want to buy a Model 3 but these stories that Tesla has a bridge note due in March that they may not be able to cover have me concerned. If I buy a car I want to make sure the company is around to service it. I don't see this article covering that particular article. In fact the word "debt" appears nowhere in it. Edit: I'm actually asking someone to prove the debt issue wrong if they can. It is liter…

That never once crossed my mind, and doesn't bother me now. I've only had my 3 for two weeks and I'm definitely happy I didn't buy a new Audi A4 instead.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#84

Post by Animats »

Tesla still isn't doing all that great on production.[1] They've been unable to sustain the 5,000 units a week output for the Model 3 line. They're back down around 4,000. The week to week numbers are all over the place, from 2000 to 6000.

Auto plants are usually much more consistent. A Ford exec points out that their F-150 production line at the Rouge produces a truck every 55 seconds. You can take the plant tour in Detroit and see this.

Tesla's open-ended tent setup in Fremont isn't going to work once rainy season starts. Their production problems should have been fixed by now, but clearly they're still struggling. And, as Bob Lutz says, they have way too many people in the Fremont plant. Tesla has 10,000 workers in Fremont. Ford's entire Rouge complex has about 5000 workers.

Tesla has accomplished a lot, but the core business still isn't running smoothly.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#85

Post by Animats »

jseliger wrote: post #57

This article is especially interesting in light of "Can We Go Electric Before It’s Too Late?" https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/10/where-america... . The answer may be "no," but Tesla is a big part, and outside of China likely the biggest part, of the answer.

China is aggressively going electric. Shenzhen went with all electric buses last year. Getting a permit for a car in Beijing is far easier for an electric car. China's electric car production is 3x US production.[1] Yes, many of them are small city cars, but then, they're used for getting around big cities.

[1] https://qz.com/1303594/when-it-comes-to-making-electric-cars...

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#86

Post by alonmower »

jonknee wrote: post #40
tssva wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The note due in March is convertible. They can cover it with cash, issuing stock or a combination of the two. It should be a concern for stock owners because it might mean dilution of their position but shouldn't be a concern as far as being a company ending event.

> They can cover it with cash, issuing stock or a combination of the two. They're convertible notes with a fixed conversion rate, Tesla doesn't get to decide on what the noteholder wants. If the stock price isn't high enough whoever is holding the notes will demand cash (cash that Tesla doesn't have).

I think the above comment was claiming that they could issue stock to generate the cash that they'd use to pay back the convertible notes with

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#87

Post by reissbaker »

FireBeyond wrote: post #52
ed_balls wrote: post #20

And this is a bad article as well > The company is massively outselling its competitors in North America How can you compare Tesla models to BMW 7? It should be compared to BMW5. What is more, SUVs rule the market and that's where they main focus is (Audi e-tron, Mercedes EQ etc.)

The 3 is more comparable to a BMW 3 series.

The Model 3 became the fifth best selling car in North America in Q3. Take a look at the sales numbers for any car BMW makes that you want — the Model 3 beats all of them. The only cars that outsell them are the Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Toyota Camry, and Toyota Corolla. And it looks to be on track to become the fourth best selling car as of current sales numbers.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#88

Post by _ph_ »

Animats wrote: post #84

Tesla still isn't doing all that great on production.[1] They've been unable to sustain the 5,000 units a week output for the Model 3 line. They're back down around 4,000. The week to week numbers are all over the place, from 2000 to 6000. Auto plants are usually much more consistent. A Ford exec points out that their F-150 production line at the Rouge produces a truck every 55 seconds. You can take the plant tour in…

First of all, we don't know whether the production is "all over the place". Your are quoting the weekly numbers from the Bloomberg tracker. But this tracker does not know about actual production numbers. It mostly looks at VIN allocation, which is not directly coupled to production numbers. Typically, Tesla allocates about 30% more VINs than the production numbers. Based on that, Bloomberg came close to the total quarter production number, but it does not give information about the weekly production numbers. We only know the average production number of over 4000 cars/week.

Tesla has more workers in their Freemont plant, but they have a very high vertical integration. They are producing their own seats for example.

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#89

Post by seanmcdirmid »

Animats wrote: post #85
jseliger wrote: post #57

This article is especially interesting in light of "Can We Go Electric Before It’s Too Late?" https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2018/10/where-america... . The answer may be "no," but Tesla is a big part, and outside of China likely the biggest part, of the answer.

China is aggressively going electric. Shenzhen went with all electric buses last year. Getting a permit for a car in Beijing is far easier for an electric car. China's electric car production is 3x US production.[1] Yes, many of them are small city cars, but then, they're used for getting around big cities. [1] https://qz.com/1303594/when-it-comes-to-making-electric-cars...

Ya, you’ll see lots of Tesla’s in Beijing these days because of the lottery, even though they cost 2X what they do in the states (rich Chinese don’t want to be seen driving around in a BYD).

Re: Tesla Is Doing Much Better Than Headlines Suggest

#90

Post by sokoloff »

jaawn wrote: post #28
sokoloff wrote: post #13

> Tesla has achieved enormous results in ramping up its Model 3 production faster than almost any new model car in history. That defies my gut feel, so I checked on carsalesbase to confirm/refute. Nearly any new car model that I look at far outsells the Model 3 during new model ramp up... http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/tesla-model-...

Which models did you look at? I don't remember a lot of models that are new to the market recently. I checked the Mazda CX-3 and the Nissan Leaf, and the Model 3 does appear to have crushed both of those based on first year numbers.

I tried to find "truly new" models (rather than generation refreshes or name changes). The first five I thought of were the Lexus RX SUV, the Fiat 500, the Mini Cooper, the 1965 Mustang, the 2015 Mustang (a ground-up re-platform, not a restyling effort).

It would be possible to argue that Tesla outproduced the Mini Cooper (depending on how exactly you shade the first year of production).

The others handily beat them, with the 1965 Mustang crushing Tesla...

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