Live data from Hacker News

Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

bloomberg.com

221–230 of 278 posts

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look under the hood of a Tesla, and you'll understand why maintenance costs are lower. There is still a lot that can go wrong on the body, notably the infamous door handles, but the power train is just much, much simpler. Notably, no oil changes, no gas, and due to regenerative braking, the physical brakes last a lot longer. Longer-term, while there is a coolant change required, there is no timing belt replacement, n…

> The batteries themselves have seemed to hold up relatively well, but in the 10+ year range, that is indeed a concern, as they represent a large fraction of the value of the car. Current Tesla Model S fleet data is showing substantial longevity (80% initial storage capacity retained) well past 10 years/500k+ miles [1] [2]. This can be credited to their thermal management system and an advanced battery management sys…

The Model S was released in the summer of 2012; we don't know what the batteries will look like after 10 years yet.

I agree that they will likely still be serviceable, though.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#222
post #90

I personally wouldn't purchase a Model 3. I rented the long range version for a round-trip trip from San Francisco to Sacramento (about 90 miles/2 hours each way). The main things that stood out: - Changing volume and airflow through the central touchscreen were much more challenging than the physical knobs and buttons most cars have. I'd even argue they were distracting and dangerous to use while driving. I don't be…

You needed to do at least read the minimal manual provided in the car's screen or on the web at tesla.com. Autopilot does not stop at stop signs or for people . You can't use it to drive the car when you are drunk. It's not for merging lanes. The things it does are following lanes as they curve, slowing down on curves, and detecting a car in front of you and slowing down. They have demonstrated other things, but it's…

Neither the onboard screen nor the person I was renting from made clear the limitations you describe. If the limitations are indeed that dangerous, more effort should be made to make them abundantly clear instead of requiring a user to search for them. Furthermore, the brand name of the technology is "Autopilot" and the copy from Tesla’s own website is as follows:

"Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars. All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver"

Based on my experience, that sentence is extremely misleading.

I stand corrected on physical controls for volume. No such controls exist for airflow as far as I know.

Regarding supercharging times, both the renter and other sources I've read online cite a full charge (over 300 miles) taking 75 - 80 minutes. I got 59 kWh (about 200 miles at a conversion rate of 3.25 miles/kWh) in 2+ hours of charging.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#223
post #90

I personally wouldn't purchase a Model 3. I rented the long range version for a round-trip trip from San Francisco to Sacramento (about 90 miles/2 hours each way). The main things that stood out: - Changing volume and airflow through the central touchscreen were much more challenging than the physical knobs and buttons most cars have. I'd even argue they were distracting and dangerous to use while driving. I don't be…

I think you have some good points here. Just wanted to point out that the audio can be controlled by the steering wheel, and they could easily add an update so that the air could be controlled by the same mechanism if they wanted to. I haven’t found that to be an issue personally, but if you drive one try it out.

Thanks for the heads up, I'll give that a try next time I drive one.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs, mile per mile, are less expensive by half to operate than an internal combustion vehicle [1]. Length of ownership, cost of petrol, and cost of electricity all play into the calculation of course. My Illinois home obtains power at 1-2 cents/kwh between midnight and 5am (Time of day metering, nuclear power); it's almost free for me to charge my Model S there, while my gasoline costs would be ~$3/gallon. I expect m…

The national average is 12 cents per kWh and $2.90 per gallon. Cherry picking places with abnormally cheap electricity is great for Internet debates but doesn't inform much. Right now an EV costs 20-30 grand more than a like-for-like ICE car, before the rebate (that is about to run out for Tesla). It's also too early to be planning on running the EV for half a million miles just to make it pay for itself in reduced f…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs, mile per mile, are less expensive by half to operate than an internal combustion vehicle [1]. Length of ownership, cost of petrol, and cost of electricity all play into the calculation of course. My Illinois home obtains power at 1-2 cents/kwh between midnight and 5am (Time of day metering, nuclear power); it's almost free for me to charge my Model S there, while my gasoline costs would be ~$3/gallon. I expect m…

The national average is 12 cents per kWh and $2.90 per gallon. Cherry picking places with abnormally cheap electricity is great for Internet debates but doesn't inform much. Right now an EV costs 20-30 grand more than a like-for-like ICE car, before the rebate (that is about to run out for Tesla). It's also too early to be planning on running the EV for half a million miles just to make it pay for itself in reduced f…

> The national average is 12 cents per kWh and $2.90 per gallon. Cherry picking places with abnormally cheap electricity is great for Internet debates but doesn't inform much.

Half the country has power costs below 12 cents per KWH. Even without cherrypicking, the math is solidly in favor of EVs. If you can't afford a Tesla, the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt are affordable alternatives, before considering state and utility incentives (which can be substantial).

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#226
post #90

I personally wouldn't purchase a Model 3. I rented the long range version for a round-trip trip from San Francisco to Sacramento (about 90 miles/2 hours each way). The main things that stood out: - Changing volume and airflow through the central touchscreen were much more challenging than the physical knobs and buttons most cars have. I'd even argue they were distracting and dangerous to use while driving. I don't be…

The audio system's volume controls have a physical knob - it's on the left of the steering wheel. You can change volume up and down, just like almost any car with audio controls on the steering wheel, except it's a dial, unlike a lot of cars that just have volume +/- button.

Actually stop and go traffic on the freeway is about the only thing I found "Autopilot" to be useful for.

I stand corrected on the physical control for volume. There is no physical control for airflow as far as I know.

"Almost everything" feels like a stretch, but you are entitled to your opinion as I am mine.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#227
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not that the drive train differentiates the car. It is that the drive train constrains possible electric cars to be poor fits for the existing mass market. Which provides a market opportunity for manufacturers that focus on what is possible with the technology now, regardless of how well it fits in current Detroit marketing plans. By the time electric is capable of being used for comparable cars at comparable p…

> they will wind up offering an inferior car at a worse price than the upstarts Jaguar I-Pace. Mercedes EQC. BMW iX3. Far superior to Tesla on all the metrics I mentioned before.

The I-Pace is just starting sales. The EQC is not yet released. You can barely reserve the iX3.

How are these even in the same ballpark as the Model S which has been out for 6 years and the Model 3 which has been selling in decent volume for months?

We have very little data about how production models of these vehicles drive/maintenance/etc.

It will be nice to see some competition to Telsa's Model X but none of them really compete with a Model 3 right now (ie, under $50k base).

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll need to explain your basis for the S being one of the most expensive cars you can own. There are dozens of cars that cost more than an S, but those are all high end cars - those cars all need expensive maintenance, well known for porsche and bmw. My s is 3.5 years old, had one visit to fix something and has had 0 maintenance. No gasoline (electricity is about 1/4 the price of buying gas per range, which is why…

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I've tried to make the numbers work. It would cost a quarter as much as what I pay in gasoline, sure, but that's because I don't drive an efficient car. If I compare it to something that actually gets good mileage it ends up being more like 1/2. Nice, but not enough to offset the up front capital cost anytime soon. As for maintenance... well, Tesla doesn't exactly have a great reputation there.…

You are entirely right that the initial cost is a lot more for the electric car, and comparing it to a cheaper gas car means you have a lot of ground to make up and it not be just a sensible financial decision on that basis. It's not going to be cheaper than a basic cheap gas car that can do the same. Like compare a 15k econo box to the cheapest currently produced long range (330 mile) tesla, which you can see at tesla.com.

I thought you were comparing it to an equivalent 'luxury car' with similar specs like a porsche or bmw. I'd compare an AWD M3 (priced at 63k) with an AWD bmw, priced at about 45k, both plus tax. Before Jan 1 you get a 7500 tax credit; after that you get half the tax credit, 3750 back. So that puts it at about 55k for ease of math. Now you want to get back 10k. Those cars are really really expensive for maintenance, that might get you the money back right there. But your fuel price will be about 1/4 the cost or even greater discount than the gas car. You'll never have an oil change, muffler, etc.

All that Tesla maintenance should be free, and they give you a loaner when they are broken. I got a tesla loaner when my car had it's problem that took a few days to fix. There have been some cars with problems. All things made by humans can break.

You'll be able to trade in the tesla for a decent amount of money but it doesn't make it free. As an example, my S is 3.5 years old and I was just offered half the original price as a trade in towards a model 3 - I decided not to do it because my car is working just fine. This was by far the most expensive car I've ever bought, more than double my previous cars. It's not about saving money, it's just so much fun to drive and there's no more fun tech toy I've ever seen. I can use it to go skiing (roof rack), taken multi-thousand mile trips. And you can do all that with a Toyota prius - that wouldn't be awd like my car so dodgy in the snow, but I could have bought a cheap awd drive. I never thought I'd spend more than 30 or 40k for a car, but my old car was 10 years old and I couldn't resist Tesla once I drove it.

The m3 is a much lower price point than the S. If you really wanted to try a tesla, I'd encourage considering a used S with a 4 year warranty from tesla included. See tesla.com or the third party listing site is better, ev-cpo.com. Since electric cars don't break down like regular cars, it's generally considered okay to drive them up to 100k miles. But you have to check out any used car even if you buy from tesla in person to make sure it is in proper shape. The cars come with an 8 year unlimited mileage for the drive train, increased over the original ones that had like an 8 year 100k mileage drivetrain warranty.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#229
post #191
post #90

I personally wouldn't purchase a Model 3. I rented the long range version for a round-trip trip from San Francisco to Sacramento (about 90 miles/2 hours each way). The main things that stood out: - Changing volume and airflow through the central touchscreen were much more challenging than the physical knobs and buttons most cars have. I'd even argue they were distracting and dangerous to use while driving. I don't be…

Superchargers in CA cost $0.25/kWh. The model 3 averages If you charge at home, overnight, you pay about $0.125/kWh, which extends the operating cost advantage further.

I paid $15.34 for 59 kWh ($0.26/kWh according to the receipt), which at the conversion rate you describe of 3mi/kWh comes out to 177 miles.

Using your example of 32mpg and $3.64/gallon, 177 miles would cost $20.13.

So roughly 25% cheaper for the supercharger vs gas. Bear in mind filling up gas takes five minutes whereas the supercharger took over two hours.

Good point about charging at home overnight though.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#230
post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they will wind up offering an inferior car at a worse price than the upstarts Jaguar I-Pace. Mercedes EQC. BMW iX3. Far superior to Tesla on all the metrics I mentioned before.

The I-Pace is just starting sales. The EQC is not yet released. You can barely reserve the iX3. How are these even in the same ballpark as the Model S which has been out for 6 years and the Model 3 which has been selling in decent volume for months? We have very little data about how production models of these vehicles drive/maintenance/etc. It will be nice to see some competition to Telsa's Model X but none of them…

You can barely reserve a Tesla and the long term quality/maintenance of the Tesla 3 isn't known either. And if you want to compare with the Model 3 then obviously we have the hybrids (Prius, Camry) and the electrics (Leaf, Bolt).

The point is that the idea that the established car manufacturers can't make a decent electric car is ridiculous. They can. In fact they look significantly better than a Tesla.

Post reply on HN