Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#211

Post by ObsoleteNerd » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:28 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #177

ObsoleteNerd wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inner Melbourne (near Prahran). I'm in an apartment complex, and there's 2 downstairs, and I walk past 2 houses with them in the driveway on our ~1.5km walk to my kids favourite park. They are in fancy houses over towards Windsor/St Kilda end, of course, but they're here. You'll also see a couple on Chapel St on any given day walking down it, and plenty around St Kilda (there's a house with an S and X off Fitzroy St…

You live in one of the wealthier suburbs in Australia and so you could play the same game with Ferrari or Porsche etc. Get back to me when you're seeing them en masse in Frankston, Campbellfield or any other working class suburb.

That makes absolutely no sense at all. The entire discussion is about an expensive electric car. Of course it's not going to be seen in working class suburbs.

I have no idea what you're on about with it being one of the wealthier suburbs either. It's not on any list I can find online. As I said, I moved here recently, and still learning demographics, but it seems like a pretty average inner city suburb. If you head over to St Kilda proper, then sure, there's some crazy houses there, but there's also housing commission and junkies and students and backpackers everywhere too.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#212

Post by rootusrootus » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:32 AM UTC

Latteland wrote: post #203

rootusrootus wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really expect it to work out cheaper than an ICE car? Interesting. The Model S, as a data point, is one of the most expensive cars you can own, by total cost of ownership over five years. The 3 is cheaper but still pretty expensive for the class it's in. I guess if you plan on keeping it 10-20 years it might eventually recoup the high capital cost in fuel savings, but that's a pretty daring bet. Good luck!

You'll need to explain your basis for the S being one of the most expensive cars you can own. There are dozens of cars that cost more than an S, but those are all high end cars - those cars all need expensive maintenance, well known for porsche and bmw. My s is 3.5 years old, had one visit to fix something and has had 0 maintenance. No gasoline (electricity is about 1/4 the price of buying gas per range, which is why…

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I've tried to make the numbers work. It would cost a quarter as much as what I pay in gasoline, sure, but that's because I don't drive an efficient car. If I compare it to something that actually gets good mileage it ends up being more like 1/2. Nice, but not enough to offset the up front capital cost anytime soon.

As for maintenance... well, Tesla doesn't exactly have a great reputation there. Lots of people with multiple motor swaps, random problems with everything from door handles to the doors themselves, etc. I don't think I would take the bet that it's actually cheaper to maintain than a German car, and that's saying something :-).

I'm glad you've had a good experience so far, and I hope that becomes the norm.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#213

Post by rootusrootus » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:34 AM UTC

SEJeff wrote: post #186

rootusrootus wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really expect it to work out cheaper than an ICE car? Interesting. The Model S, as a data point, is one of the most expensive cars you can own, by total cost of ownership over five years. The 3 is cheaper but still pretty expensive for the class it's in. I guess if you plan on keeping it 10-20 years it might eventually recoup the high capital cost in fuel savings, but that's a pretty daring bet. Good luck!

And this Luxury Taxi company has actual numbers that disagree with you vs conjecture: https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-...

Is it fair to compare a consumer to a taxi company? It is generally well understood (at least amongst car folks) that mileage isn't generally what degrades a car, it's mostly time. Taxi companies put huge miles on their cars in a short period, which is quite a lot different from Joe Consumer driving 12K/year.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#214

Post by rootusrootus » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:37 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #170

rootusrootus wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You really expect it to work out cheaper than an ICE car? Interesting. The Model S, as a data point, is one of the most expensive cars you can own, by total cost of ownership over five years. The 3 is cheaper but still pretty expensive for the class it's in. I guess if you plan on keeping it 10-20 years it might eventually recoup the high capital cost in fuel savings, but that's a pretty daring bet. Good luck!

EVs, mile per mile, are less expensive by half to operate than an internal combustion vehicle [1]. Length of ownership, cost of petrol, and cost of electricity all play into the calculation of course. My Illinois home obtains power at 1-2 cents/kwh between midnight and 5am (Time of day metering, nuclear power); it's almost free for me to charge my Model S there, while my gasoline costs would be ~$3/gallon. I expect m…

The national average is 12 cents per kWh and $2.90 per gallon. Cherry picking places with abnormally cheap electricity is great for Internet debates but doesn't inform much.

Right now an EV costs 20-30 grand more than a like-for-like ICE car, before the rebate (that is about to run out for Tesla). It's also too early to be planning on running the EV for half a million miles just to make it pay for itself in reduced fuel costs.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#215

Post by threeseed » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:40 AM UTC

ObsoleteNerd wrote: post #211

threeseed wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You live in one of the wealthier suburbs in Australia and so you could play the same game with Ferrari or Porsche etc. Get back to me when you're seeing them en masse in Frankston, Campbellfield or any other working class suburb.

That makes absolutely no sense at all. The entire discussion is about an expensive electric car. Of course it's not going to be seen in working class suburbs. I have no idea what you're on about with it being one of the wealthier suburbs either. It's not on any list I can find online. As I said, I moved here recently, and still learning demographics, but it seems like a pretty average inner city suburb. If you head o…

The point was that you can't make general comments about the popularity of the Tesla when you live in a very wealthy suburb who can affords Teslas.

And wealth is generally based on average house price which is $1.5 million in Prahran i.e. towards the very expensive end across Australia.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#216

Post by Latteland » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:51 AM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #213

SEJeff wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this Luxury Taxi company has actual numbers that disagree with you vs conjecture: https://www.tesloop.com/blog/2018/7/16/tesloops-tesla-model-...

Is it fair to compare a consumer to a taxi company? It is generally well understood (at least amongst car folks) that mileage isn't generally what degrades a car, it's mostly time. Taxi companies put huge miles on their cars in a short period, which is quite a lot different from Joe Consumer driving 12K/year.

Taxi companies still have to change the oil at least based on time. You can wait longer but eventually it needs to be changed, spark plugs, air filter, etc. after a very long time there is a new muffler. Teslas never need to change the oil, get a new muffler. They don't need exhaust inspections.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#217

Post by threeseed » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:52 AM UTC

SEJeff wrote: post #196

wmf wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I don't know if Tesla's drive train is that far ahead. Cars like the i-Pace have copied the dual-motor "skateboard" chassis, reasonable range, fast charging, etc. while including all the benefits of established car design/manufacturing.

Anecdotally, this teardown report seems to refute your statement a bit: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/19/tesla-model-3-stuns-ger...

> was harshly critical of the build quality of the Model 3, calling it nearly as bad as a ’90s era Kia.

Also it's obviously much simpler and cleaner to build a car with just a touchscreen as its main interface. But the problem is its a nightmare for driving.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#218

Post by Latteland » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:54 AM UTC

greglindahl wrote: post #109

pretendscholar wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fewer moving parts does not mean that the components are less likely to break. A car with only one gear would have fewer parts but would break down more often.

Most electric cars have only one gear. Why does it break down more often?

Electric cars break down less often, not more often, in general. They have less car fires too. Tesla has enough millions of miles that there are a number of comparisons of rates of various problems compared to the regular fleet about accidents, fires, etc. It's not magic but has generally been very encouraging.

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#219

Post by siidooloo » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:57 AM UTC

pretendscholar wrote: post #121

greglindahl wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most electric cars have only one gear. Why does it break down more often?

Just saying as a thought experiment that having fewer parts does not mean it will break down less often.

Here’s a thought experiment:

Product A has 100 parts. Each part has a 10 percent chance of breaking over the products lifetime.

Product B has 25 parts. Each has a 10 percent chance of breaking over the product’s lifetime.

Which product is more likely to break more often?

Re: Tesla’s Model 3 Is Becoming One of America’s Best-Selling Sedans

#220

Post by jcrben » Thu, Oct 04, 2018, 3:59 AM UTC

webkike wrote: post #81

mrfusion wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not convinced on the lower maintenance costs. Can you speak to that a bit? It seems like there’s still a lot that can go wrong and you’re stuck paying whatever tesla wants to charge you to fix it.

Sure, but electric cars have far fewer moving parts. Components are simply less likely to break.

Depending on what you mean by "break". What about bitrot and software bugs? Quick search reveals articles like https://electriccarsreport.com/2018/06/gm-recalls-model-year... and https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/15/toyota_recalls_6250...

The kind of component matters. Altho in the long, long term we can expect software bugs to trend to 0.