China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth • Hacker News Board

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#81

Post by SubiculumCode » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:03 PM UTC

hrktb wrote: post #43

charlysl wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, in the west there are constant attempts at gaming the system, and propaganda is as rife as in authoritarian regimes, and this often results in the masses (us) being misinformed. However, I still don't think it's the same as direct censorship, where it's pretty much game over, nor as damaging. I mean, do you really believe that it's irrelevant that the conversation we are having now, without any fears, I assume,…

Disclaimer: I don’t have any experience living in China. With that in mind, from what I get anything political or touching the PRC will be heavily scrutinized, anything else nobody will bat an eye. In that respect, the fact we can discuss this freely is nice. But I’d be cautious to declare we’re freer than them just on that fact alone. I just don’t know. Compound to that, the fact that we went through series of very…

The very fact that I can say "Screw government Policy X" and "Trump is a liar" or "the NSA's surveillance policy is unAmerican" without fear of being arrested or reeducated, very clearly says we are more free than a citizen of China, without even delving into the threats to freedom faced by ethnic minorities in China.

Effecting change in government policy is a poor metric of personal freedom as there are a number of competing interests, each rooted in their personal freedom to try to effect change. Yes, many of us are disappointed in how things were handled since 2008, but clear policy solutions don't always exist, and I do not think the people clearly coalesced around any set of them and then failed to implement them. Why? Because the actions taken to effect a recovery were good enough that we didn't collectively starve. Revolutions and huge political upheavals take starvation (The Depression), death (Vietnam), or a clear solution to unfair suffering (Civil Rights Movement).

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#82

Post by nradov » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:09 PM UTC

rqs wrote: post #51

mabbo wrote: post #48

This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…

Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…

Can Chinese citizens actually buy a house, or is the market still limited to long-term leases?

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#83

Post by justtopost » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:10 PM UTC

rqs wrote: post #64

tvanantwerp wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hadn't heard about that, but it clarifies something. I've got in-laws in China, and many of them own older condos that they no longer live in. When I asked my wife why they don't sell, she just said there's zero resale value, which made no sense to me. But a law preventing the sale could explain it.

It's rather a regulation, not law. And I don't think it's apply to your case, because the regulation I mentioned above only limit recent transactions. That is, if you brought a house, from the time of the purchase, you can't re-sell it within 2~5 years. After that, you're free to go. If that old condos is not within the limited time, then maybe it is real that the house have no resale value. In that case, as far as I…

Please explain the nuance between a regulation and a law. I understand them to be different terms for government enforced actions. Is there a distinction in China I am not groking with my americentric bias?

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#84

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:18 PM UTC

rqs wrote: post #76

mistermann wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. "China is Now More Expensive than the USA": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32t8d2eQJAA Almost everyone laughs when I say they should get some of their news from people who actually live in China rather than thinking something needs to be printed in the new…

From the comment section of that very video, I quote: > Freda Du: are you guys comparing one of the most expensive chinese cities with the average american (suburban/rural) rent? And comparing fine western dining (cuz apparently you think the $2 chinese meals will kill westerners..) with dollar menu? I lived in Shanghai, LA and NYC, let's make a major city to major city comparison here.. a single metro ride is $0.5 i…

China is not expensive. Rent is actually cheap: that place on the market in beijing for $1 million USD will rent for less than $2k/month, for example. Food can be cheap, not as cheap as 22 RMB/week (heck, even in Chenzhou I'm not sure who could do that), but $5/person for a decent meal out and cheaper if cooking in.

Cars are super expensive compared to the states, so is gas. Real estate prices are insane, but again rents are much cheaper because most of that run up is imaginary and unsustainable. Education is super expensive if you don't have a hukou (which foreigners will never get). Clean air is impossible to buy.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#85

Post by justtopost » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:19 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #55

phyller wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not true, if a piece of economic information would be damaging to Trump it would likely get even more coverage.

Isn’t that the opposite of influence though?

Not if you know how to spin it. Like him or not, Trump is unquestionably good at getting 'bad' press to work in his favor. Any power, positive or negative, can be harnessed if you are clever enough. To what end, well, thats a different discussion.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#86

Post by echevil » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:21 PM UTC

paradite wrote: post #13

alecco wrote: post #4

The kind of "bad economic news" censored: TABLE-China bond defaults rise over 56 pct from 2017 at $8.74 bln https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-defaults/table...

How about stopping the baseless accusations thrown at China? http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-04-13/do... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2018-08-31/doc-ihinpmn... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-06-15/do... http://bond.jrj.com.cn/2018/09/30133825154607.shtml http://bond.hexun.com/2018-08-01/193639187.html Edit: Looks like I'm being flagged for pointing out the false accus…

Why would you have faith in HN in the first place? :)

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#87

Post by panarky » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:23 PM UTC

slededit wrote: post #79

panarky wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only in China. In 2010, the US Securities and Exchange Commission restricted the ability to sell shares short if the share price has declined more than 10%. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-26.htm Curious how there is no equivalent restriction on purchases if the share price has increased by 10%.

It’s a very temporary restriction not at all comparable. It applies only until the next uptick and is essentially a strengthening of the circuit breaker rules. These rules are designed to slow trading down on the order of minutes to hours so market participants can catch up and make rational decisions. This is completely different than broad market distortions pervasive in both Japan and China - both in intent and ef…

> These rules are designed to slow trading down

If this were true, then there would be a symmetric rule to restrict purchases when prices increase.

Since the rule only restricts sales and not purchases, its purpose must be to prevent price declines, not to regulate the velocity of trading.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#88

Post by slededit » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:27 PM UTC

panarky wrote: post #87

slededit wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s a very temporary restriction not at all comparable. It applies only until the next uptick and is essentially a strengthening of the circuit breaker rules. These rules are designed to slow trading down on the order of minutes to hours so market participants can catch up and make rational decisions. This is completely different than broad market distortions pervasive in both Japan and China - both in intent and ef…

> These rules are designed to slow trading down If this were true, then there would be a symmetric rule to restrict purchases when prices increase. Since the rule only restricts sales and not purchases, its purpose must be to prevent price declines, not to regulate the velocity of trading.

Unlike with upswings, down swings come with margin calls which can cause downward spirals. The market can certainly get irrational on the upswing as well but the feedback mechanisms are more muted and slower.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#89

Post by mistermann » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:27 PM UTC

charlysl wrote: post #63

hrktb wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer: I don’t have any experience living in China. With that in mind, from what I get anything political or touching the PRC will be heavily scrutinized, anything else nobody will bat an eye. In that respect, the fact we can discuss this freely is nice. But I’d be cautious to declare we’re freer than them just on that fact alone. I just don’t know. Compound to that, the fact that we went through series of very…

I totally agree with you that the aftermath of the financial crisis has been appaling. Before the crisis both the right and the left had achieved their main political goal (capitalism and the welfare state, respectively), and both accepted the status quo. It is astonishing that after a crisis that was caused by capitalist greed, it was the welfare state that was compromised. This has damaged the establishment left, w…

> The western liberal capitalist elites, which control the media, are struggling to contain these populists.

> Of course, I will never claim that this makes me an expert, but an interesting observation that I have made is that educated people in dictatorships seem not to believe anything from their country's media.

Just one example of these two points is Thomas Frank, whose type of message you will rarely see anywhere in the mainstream (or even elsewhere (whether intentional or not): "You're posting too fast. Please slow down. Thanks."), and therefore will likely have no influence on "informed" people in the US.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/01/thomas-frank-obama-c...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xPCMhwyHy0

But as you say, the message is getting to some people, and when people hear these types of messages and if they realize it isn't covered in the mainstream, and is "discouraged" on social media, and start putting two and two together, it can become a very potent political tool that can be leveraged by populists.

Re: China Censors Bad Economic News Amid Signs of Slower Growth

#90

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Oct 02, 2018, 4:28 PM UTC

panarky wrote: post #78

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade. In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan…

Not only in China. In 2010, the US Securities and Exchange Commission restricted the ability to sell shares short if the share price has declined more than 10%. https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-26.htm Curious how there is no equivalent restriction on purchases if the share price has increased by 10%.

China also has a circuit breaker against movements of 10% (they can't grow/shrink more than 10% a day). China also doesn't really allow for shorting of shares so I'm not sure what you are trying to show here?