61–70 of 111 posts
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It is much worse, given that in the west biased reporting and cover ups can be publicly denounced, whether by other biased sources at the other end of the spectrum or in social media, whereas in China it is not allowed to disclose by any means that bad economic news is being suppressed.
Unless you are Alex Jones.
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This has always been true though. The government basically controls the real estate companies, and they won’t list/show your house beneath a certain price. When prices weaken, volume simply plummets as no one can sell because the real estate companies won’t allow for discounting. That isn’t a really a new thing, it has been going on for at least a decade. In many cases, what we have in China is much worse than japan…
> what we have in China is much worse than japan since artificial intervention is much deeper and prolonged I think it's the question of whether or not it's going to pop. If the housing bubble did popped, then we are screwed a big time, worse than what Japanese once had. But if it didn't, then the leverage is still there and economy maybe low at worse, but stable. I don't think everything is concluded at this point,…
A lot of economic potential is directed toward real estate and away from more productive endeavors. I remember the shops outside of my old office in zhongguancun all concerting to real estate offices. Cafes, restaurants, stores can’t compete.
If China wants to take the next step in their economic development, they have to give up on this bubble. It will suppress a lot more economic activity than it stimulates, even if capital is preserved it isn’t doing anything useful.
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Sure, in the west there are constant attempts at gaming the system, and propaganda is as rife as in authoritarian regimes, and this often results in the masses (us) being misinformed. However, I still don't think it's the same as direct censorship, where it's pretty much game over, nor as damaging. I mean, do you really believe that it's irrelevant that the conversation we are having now, without any fears, I assume,…
Disclaimer: I don’t have any experience living in China. With that in mind, from what I get anything political or touching the PRC will be heavily scrutinized, anything else nobody will bat an eye. In that respect, the fact we can discuss this freely is nice. But I’d be cautious to declare we’re freer than them just on that fact alone. I just don’t know. Compound to that, the fact that we went through series of very…
Before the crisis both the right and the left had achieved their main political goal (capitalism and the welfare state, respectively), and both accepted the status quo.
It is astonishing that after a crisis that was caused by capitalist greed, it was the welfare state that was compromised.
This has damaged the establishment left, which is being replaced by populists that, although often branded as far-right, are big defenders of the welfare state and "the people".
The western liberal capitalist elites, which control the media, are struggling to contain these populists. So, although, in particular, the US media is under their control, they couldn't stop Trump, whose supporters in the fringe media had no trouble spreading their opinions.
Although a westerner, I have first-hand experience of life in an authoritarian country.
Of course, I will never claim that this makes me an expert, but an interesting observation that I have made is that educated people in dictatorships seem not to believe anything from their country's media.
So far so good. The interesting bit is that they seem to give enormous credibility to rumours and conspiracy theories, no matter how outlandish.
I have the suspicion that often these rumours originate from the opposition in the diaspora, who I believe are just as biased and self-serving as the officials.
I find this side-effect of censorship quite fascinating.
In fact, China recently cracked down on those spreading rumours. [1]
[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/china/poliitics/article/2162036/ch...
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Actually, before the trade gone bad, many local governments in China already installed some limits on the housing bubble. For example, in some place, you can only buy house, but unable to sell it. This will limit how many money can flood back to the economy. So far, that policy is effective. After all, nobody want to play the Japanese character during what's after the "Japanese economic miracle"[0]. And the housing b…
I hadn't heard about that, but it clarifies something. I've got in-laws in China, and many of them own older condos that they no longer live in. When I asked my wife why they don't sell, she just said there's zero resale value, which made no sense to me. But a law preventing the sale could explain it.
That is, if you brought a house, from the time of the purchase, you can't re-sell it within 2~5 years. After that, you're free to go.
If that old condos is not within the limited time, then maybe it is real that the house have no resale value. In that case, as far as I know, the only option is to wait until local government re-sell (re-develop) the land.
But don't take my word, I don't know every policy of every local government. If you really curious, ask the question on a Chinese website like zhihu.com, then maybe you can get some information that is more useful.
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How about stopping the baseless accusations thrown at China? http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-04-13/do... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/2018-08-31/doc-ihinpmn... http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bond/research/2018-06-15/do... http://bond.jrj.com.cn/2018/09/30133825154607.shtml http://bond.hexun.com/2018-08-01/193639187.html Edit: Looks like I'm being flagged for pointing out the false accus…
Can you explain in short what accusation you deem baseless? Is it the fact that censorship is going on or is it the specific item of "bad economic views" linked by the parent? Unfortunately for most of us westerners the chinese web remains mostly opaque (and automated translation very mediocre) so I don't understand what your links are supposed to demonstrate. That's probably why you're getting downvoted too.
I want to condemn this, but given the current state in western countries, I'd feel like a hypocrite. We have so much light censorship and politicians get to lie without any consequences. The institutions who play along are rewarded and those who try to speak out about it are discredited. There's illegal surveillance that we only get to know about from whistleblowers. Political correctness is used to silence millions…
China is not copying us. Corruption is universal. It’s a question of degrees. The US has less corruption and more access to correct what does exist than the Chinese. What they learned from us, if anything, is how technology can control things. Given that they’ve had advanced tech on the past and did similar things to suppress inconvenient truth, I’d say they are pretty much doing what they’ve always done back to the days of the emperor.
This should really terrify us all. The Chinese economy is not just inflated, it's now an enormous chunk of the world economy. Throw in their really wild housing bubble [0] and it's a time bomb. Globalization has made everything cheaper, but it's tied us all together in many ways. They won't fall over alone. Hiding news that the economy isn't doing well distorts incentives. Those with political connections will know w…
"There is no question that China will have a difficult adjustment, but it is likely to take the form of a long process rather than a sudden crisis." -- Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/77178
"A government directive sent to journalists in China on Friday named six economic topics to be “managed,” according to a copy of the order that was reviewed by The New York Times."
From everything I've read, I would be extremely surprised if journalists are the only ones who receive implicit or explicit "suggestions" on what is acceptable to say, and what is not.
http://www.baldingsworld.com/2018/07/17/balding-out/ (It's an excellent article overall.)
I am leaving China. After nine years working for the HSBC Business School of Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School as a professor teaching international trade, negotiations, and ethics, I am leaving China. In early November 2017, the HSBC Business School informed me they would not renew my contract. In March 2018 they informed me they wished to sever all ties by April 1, 2018.
One of my biggest fears living in China has always been that I would be detained. Though I happily pointed out the absurdity of the rapidly encroaching authoritarianism, a fact which continues to elude so many experts not living in China, I tried to make sure I knew where the line was and did not cross it. There is a profound sense of relief to be leaving safely knowing others, Chinese or foreigners, who have had significantly greater difficulties than myself. There are many cases which resulted in significantly more problems for them. I know I am blessed to make it out.
I'd also be surprised if China is the only country where messaging "suggestions" are made by the government, although the degree and exactly how it is done is far more opaque some places than others. Of course it may be pure confirmation bias, but I've detected a distinct change in the nature of MSM China articles in the last 2 months or so in the US, as well as a change in public sentiment in social media and forums.
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> what we have in China is much worse than japan since artificial intervention is much deeper and prolonged I think it's the question of whether or not it's going to pop. If the housing bubble did popped, then we are screwed a big time, worse than what Japanese once had. But if it didn't, then the leverage is still there and economy maybe low at worse, but stable. I don't think everything is concluded at this point,…
If the property bubble doesn’t pop, you are more screwed as the asset and real economies further diverge. China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. A lot of economic potential is directed toward real estate and away from more productive endeavors. I remember the shops outside of my old office in zhon…
"China is Now More Expensive than the USA": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32t8d2eQJAA
Almost everyone laughs when I say they should get some of their news from people who actually live in China rather than thinking something needs to be printed in the newspaper before it is true.
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Unless you are Alex Jones.
Last time I checked he was fully able to spit whatever nonsense he wanted out into the world without being send to any reeducation camps.
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> what we have in China is much worse than japan since artificial intervention is much deeper and prolonged I think it's the question of whether or not it's going to pop. If the housing bubble did popped, then we are screwed a big time, worse than what Japanese once had. But if it didn't, then the leverage is still there and economy maybe low at worse, but stable. I don't think everything is concluded at this point,…
If the property bubble doesn’t pop, you are more screwed as the asset and real economies further diverge. China can’t be world competitive if a 70sqm apartment goes for a million bucks, people/companies will start relocating to cheaper places like say San Francisco. A lot of economic potential is directed toward real estate and away from more productive endeavors. I remember the shops outside of my old office in zhon…
Many people think it's a goal that is to hard to reach in time (year 2025 or so), but the overall direction is about right.
However, all of that is before the trade war thing. So what does the future actually holds is a bigger unknown by now.