How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios • Hacker News Board

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#131

Post by AnimalMuppet » Sat, Sep 29, 2018, 2:18 AM UTC

dev_dull wrote: post #129

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I am, following the explicitly stated intent of the authors of the United States Constitution. They deliberately did not want direct democracy, fearing mob rule.

Then you must be in favor of institutions such as the electorate college.

First, I deplore the rhetorical trick you just used. You put words in someone else's mouth that are tangentially related to what they have said. It's a cheap and dishonest way of arguing.

What I said was that I was not in favor of direct democracy. In context, what that means is "rule by referendum". I'm against it, and so were the authors of the Constitution. And they had good historical reasons - they saw what happened to democracy in ancient Greece. That position is not directly related to the electoral [not electorate] college. I could be against the electoral college without that invalidating my position on referendums.

As it happens, I am in favor of the electoral college, but on different grounds - limiting the ability of the large states to run over the small ones. It's the same reason we have a Senate, not just a House of Representatives.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#132

Post by dingaling » Sat, Sep 29, 2018, 2:35 AM UTC

wlll wrote: post #89

arountheworld wrote: post #83

This presentation is biased. It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. There are soft borders in the EU for example Poland - Russia, where people can roam freely. EU is just not being flexible to make a "political point", which is pathetic. They shouldn't include a provision to leave the Union in the first place.

> It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. As somoene who grew up in the UK with the IRA blowing up bits of the country, some rather close to me, I disagree. It's likely that the communities that would be split by a new border in Ireland would disagree too. The EU is negotiating in it's best interests, as is the UK. There aren't going to be any favours traded on either sid…

> It's likely that the communities that would be split by a new border in Ireland would disagree too.

It wouldn't really be a 'new' border though; NI and Eire had border controls from 1922 to 1998, so well into the EEC-EU era. I often had to show my passport on the coach from Belfast to Dublin. My grandparents remembered having to declare NI bacon on the train crossing at Carlingford.

With over 200 border crossing points it wasn't 100% enforced, though.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#133

Post by unclenoriega » Sat, Sep 29, 2018, 2:39 AM UTC

dev_dull wrote: post #129

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I am, following the explicitly stated intent of the authors of the United States Constitution. They deliberately did not want direct democracy, fearing mob rule.

Then you must be in favor of institutions such as the electorate college.

The thing about the Electoral College is that it's not really used these days to go against the will of the people in any real sense, but merely to distort the popular vote a little based on how the electoral votes are apportioned. As such, you get all of the downsides, i.e. going against the voters in close elections, effective disenfranchisement of voters in "non-swing" states, etc., without the purported benefit of saving the masses from themselves.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#134

Post by gthaman » Sat, Sep 29, 2018, 6:05 AM UTC

spicywings wrote: post #26

hacker news is a communism

absolutely. dont you enjoy these painfully long and out of breath explanations on why this inconvenient majority of voters must be further disenfranchised ?

and all of the appeals to the authority of the EU's rules and regulations and why that makes it "impossible" ?

what hogwash. we all played by the same rules which were agreed upon beforehand and now the economically well off (and isolated) minority seek to invalidate the vote.

I think if the 'vote' is taken away from those who voted for Brexit then they'll do you one better and choose to ignore more fundamental aspects of our "social agreement", namely ones involving physical safety.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#135

Post by clubm8 » Sat, Sep 29, 2018, 2:06 PM UTC

bilbo0s wrote: post #24

clubm8 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The Leave voters will all call you undemocratic. That sentiment imposes a definite cost on you as well. This is the same country that has the queen give "consent" for all legislation, correct? What exactly is the point of the monarchy if they won't step in during this serious issue to act as the "adult in the room"?

I guess I'm not familiar enough with the monarchical aspect of their government to know how (if?) that would go down? But you make a good point. Why can't their queen or whatever just say no we're not leaving? I'm not sure? I'm from the US. We don't have the whole monarchy thing going on.

She doesn't have to force them not to leave.

Merely giving a televised speech that she respects the will of the people, but hopes they will take into consideration here years of experience and view it will be dreadfully harmful would have probably nudged a no. I know she normally does not comment on politics, but I also thought it's not out of the realm of possibility she'd pull a Silent Bob and speak up briefly when it is deeply needed.

Again I ask: what is the point of the monarchy, if they do not step in as some sort of check on the legislative branch when things go off the rails?

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#136

Post by dev_dull » Sat, Sep 29, 2018, 9:55 PM UTC

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #131

dev_dull wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you must be in favor of institutions such as the electorate college.

First, I deplore the rhetorical trick you just used. You put words in someone else's mouth that are tangentially related to what they have said. It's a cheap and dishonest way of arguing. What I said was that I was not in favor of direct democracy. In context, what that means is "rule by referendum". I'm against it, and so were the authors of the Constitution. And they had good historical reasons - they saw what happ…

I didn’t mean to be snarky and I apologize for the comment out of hand. I actually agree with you that a representational government is much better than submitting to the whims and passions of the mob.

However in the case of things like brexit vote, it really does seem like it’s the elites versus the common folk battling out what their vision for what the country should look like.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#137

Post by AnimalMuppet » Sun, Sep 30, 2018, 12:44 AM UTC

dev_dull wrote: post #136

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, I deplore the rhetorical trick you just used. You put words in someone else's mouth that are tangentially related to what they have said. It's a cheap and dishonest way of arguing. What I said was that I was not in favor of direct democracy. In context, what that means is "rule by referendum". I'm against it, and so were the authors of the Constitution. And they had good historical reasons - they saw what happ…

I didn’t mean to be snarky and I apologize for the comment out of hand. I actually agree with you that a representational government is much better than submitting to the whims and passions of the mob. However in the case of things like brexit vote, it really does seem like it’s the elites versus the common folk battling out what their vision for what the country should look like.

I don't know enough about UK politics to say much intelligent here. Does it seem to you that the elites wanted to remain and the common folk wanted to leave?

I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case, but information from someone who knows more would be nice...

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#138

Post by wlll » Sun, Sep 30, 2018, 2:10 PM UTC

arountheworld wrote: post #127

wlll wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because Kaliningrad Oblast is small, homogeneous and an exclave within the European Union That's not the same situation as NI.

In such situations, people suddenly lose the ability to draw similarities... it is funny actually when someone makes up their mind and becomes immune to ideas that could break their fortress.

> Because Kaliningrad Oblast is small, homogeneous and an exclave within the European Union, in 2011 the whole Oblast was granted the status of border area eligible to local border traffic rules.

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland%E2%80%93Russia_border

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclave_and_exclave

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_border_traffic

NI is not an exclave. There may at some point be a "local traffic" agreement with between NI and The Republic of Ireland, but that is something that needs to be negotiated.

That this negotiation hasn't finished yet is because the relationship that the UK will have with the EU is still rather up in the air. The EU wants a border so it can maintain import duties with external countries, exclude dangerous items and people, and maintain compliance with things like food standards (think lowering of food standards to make a US trade deal possible). The UK wants a border so we (well, not me, the people who voted for this ill-conceived shitshow) can keep immigrants out, and also to collect customs tariffs, block etc. etc. etc.

The requirements that each negotiating position has, as well as the general desire to not trigger a recurrence of "the troubles" are really hard to solve. There are literal opposing requirements that somehow need to work together.

If you take that, and the fact that the UK needs the EU way more than the EU needs the UK (the "UK holds all the cards" blithering of the tea with vicar dancing round the maypole cricket on the green little englanders aside), then you realise that the EU doesn't really need to do anything. It's not going to "throw us a bone" on this, it's going to use it as a negotiating position, and the UK will eventually either give some ground on another issue (freedom of movement perhaps), or we won't and there will be a border.

You have to remember that this is what people voted for. If they didn't vote for this then perhaps they should have listened to "experts" more, and maybe people should be questioning the ability of politicians to so clearly lie through their teeth to get the thing that they want (eg. Boris Johnson: a conservative party leadership bid, "350 million per week" etc.)

The really really simple solution is for the UK to have full regulatory compliance with the EU, something like the Norway model, but all of the "models" have significant disadvantages, such as "pay with no say" as the Norway model is sometimes described. We could of course stay in the EU, that's actually been offered. We wouldn't have a border in NI, we would have access to relationships with other countries via the over 750 treaties that the EU has, but that it seems isn't something we want enough apparently.

edit

Just out of interest, what are your ideas as to how this should work?

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#139

Post by wlll » Sun, Sep 30, 2018, 2:20 PM UTC

dingaling wrote: post #132

wlll wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. As somoene who grew up in the UK with the IRA blowing up bits of the country, some rather close to me, I disagree. It's likely that the communities that would be split by a new border in Ireland would disagree too. The EU is negotiating in it's best interests, as is the UK. There aren't going to be any favours traded on either sid…

> It's likely that the communities that would be split by a new border in Ireland would disagree too. It wouldn't really be a 'new' border though; NI and Eire had border controls from 1922 to 1998, so well into the EEC-EU era. I often had to show my passport on the coach from Belfast to Dublin. My grandparents remembered having to declare NI bacon on the train crossing at Carlingford. With over 200 border crossing po…

> It wouldn't really be a 'new' border though

No, I meant "new" as in, "it wasn't there last year" :) I'm old enough to remember the border, and "the troubles" too.

I also believe the removal of the border was a large factor in the cessation of hostilities, and the reason it's such a hot topic now.

> With over 200 border crossing points it wasn't 100% enforced, though.

My uncle used to have a house (he described it as such, to call it a shack would have been generous) in the south of France close to the Spanish border. Before freedom of movement they used to just walk into Spain as and when they pleased.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#140

Post by wlll » Sun, Sep 30, 2018, 3:04 PM UTC

zimablue wrote: post #59

This is actually terrible, for one thing the bridges don't move independently, you click one and another moves, making it FEEL deceptive and not allowing you to easily work out the whole problem space or why. They should move independently and if the configuration doesn't make sense, tell you. For another thing, it conflates economic disalignment with having a hard border, the whole argument of the UK government is t…

> For another thing, it conflates economic disalignment with having a hard border, the whole argument of the UK government is that you don't have to do that.

This pretty much the case in the entire rest of the world. Political or economic misalignment == hard border, so people and goods can be checked and charged for. It's not so much a conflation as just becoming any other country outside the EU.

The solution to this, a soft border managed by technology just doesn't exist, it's science fiction. Even if you believe it is possible, you've got 6 months to 1. Negotiate this between the UK and EU, 2. Get the UK political system to agree to it, 3. Create and test the system and 4. Deploy it. That's a tight timescale for any project of this size, let alone one that has so much required work that needs to be done beforehand.