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How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

howtobrexit.eu

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Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#81

Post by Mankrik »

JimDabell wrote: post #56
Y_Y wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Gaelic/Celtic Union is an idea that has been batted around for a while now. It might be political fantasy, but the populaces seem to be general amenable (not including, ironically, the various "unionists").

Honestly, the Brexit that would probably keep the most people happy is if England and Wales minus London left the UK, and the remainder of the UK plus London stayed in the EU. Scotland would have to become a special economic zone though.

I wouldn't. Mainly because being the latter half of a country name would be a slap in the face and a general embarrassment of the nation. All for just over half the population that for some reason didn't want money from the EU because most people here are that poor. Amazing really.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#82

Post by pjc50 »

zimablue wrote: post #79
songshu wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with Brexit is that "leave the European Union" is not a policy, it's an outcome. All of the thinking about how to do it should have taken place before the vote, and then we could have voted on that (this is actually the way legislation is typically developed in the UK, and the job of our sometime venerated civil service). Compare it to the recent Irish referendum on abortion, where there was a clear plan…

I think you're kind of splitting hairs, all policies can be viewed as outcomes. "Bring back grammar schools" is both a policy and an outcome. "Improve education" is only an outcome because it doesn't discuss how to achieve it. "Leave the EU" is 100% achievable and has an obvious way to achieve it, it's policy just not detailed policy. Realistically they should have planned more, but planning is limited when you're go…

The trouble is that of the two obvious options, one is pointless ("Norway") and the other ("Canada") breaches the peace treaty in Northern Ireland.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#83

Post by arountheworld »

This presentation is biased. It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. There are soft borders in the EU for example Poland - Russia, where people can roam freely. EU is just not being flexible to make a "political point", which is pathetic. They shouldn't include a provision to leave the Union in the first place.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#84

Post by billpg »

Looking forward to the pro-brexit commenters posting their realistic workable plans for leaving the EU that addresses these issues.

I mean someone must have plan. You've been complaining about the EU for (checks notes) decades. Didn't you use any of that time to come up a plan?

Want to call me a remoaner or other insults? That's fine, but maybe post your plan first and then call me a remoaner?

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#85

Post by pjc50 »

mrighele wrote: post #66
conanite wrote: post #25

Scotland and NI quit UK to form their own republic and rejoin EU together. Everyone happy. Maybe even republic of Scotland-Ireland.

Rejoining EU would not be automatic. They will have to to again all the accession iter. EU countries that have issues with independence movements (e.g. Spain w.r.t Catalonia) will not let automatic re-join, because the "You will be out of EU if you secede" is one of the arguments used for saying that secession is a bad move.

I'm not sure they would be the last holdout in the face of obvious EU condemnation, and it's always possible that the ECJ would rule that they had never left the EU.

Meanwhile, everyone has forgotten the UK's land border with Spain at Gibraltar...

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#86

Post by pjc50 »

gadders wrote: post #51
seren wrote: post #4

There should be more options, like Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom. Or Scotland making a bid to join the EU.

They'd have to join the Euro as well. I think that's pre-condition for joining the EU.

Countries are required to meet the convergence criteria before joining the Euro. It can't be automatic on joining the EU.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#87

Post by pjc50 »

arethuza wrote: post #32
pjc50 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Northern Ireland is a colony of the UK if it is anything at all.

Are you suggesting independence for NI? That would be interesting...

Can't have independence if you don't have a government!

United Ireland on the other hand has gone from impossible to maybe.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#88

Post by pjc50 »

hanoz wrote: post #60
pjc50 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom Sure, but this is somewhere in probability behind "UK destroyed by asteroid impact". > Scotland making a bid to join the EU There are persistent rumours that people on the UK side are trying to avoid having any kind of double-no-border situation that would work for NI be also applicable for Scotland. Because during the referendum all sorts of claims about the need for…

>> Republic of Ireland joining the United Kingdom > Sure, but this is somewhere in probability behind "UK destroyed by asteroid impact". Maybe, but Ireland also leaving the EU would be a good and not entirely unpopular solution.

There was a little appetite for this after the financial crisis, but after this fiasco there is none at all. Especially not to make it easy for the Brits.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#89

Post by wlll »

arountheworld wrote: post #83

This presentation is biased. It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU. There are soft borders in the EU for example Poland - Russia, where people can roam freely. EU is just not being flexible to make a "political point", which is pathetic. They shouldn't include a provision to leave the Union in the first place.

> It doesn't take into account that the Northern Ireland is really a problem of the EU.

As somoene who grew up in the UK with the IRA blowing up bits of the country, some rather close to me, I disagree. It's likely that the communities that would be split by a new border in Ireland would disagree too.

The EU is negotiating in it's best interests, as is the UK. There aren't going to be any favours traded on either side.

Re: How to Brexit? – Explore the (im)possibilities of the different Brexit scenarios

#90

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Chestofdraw wrote: post #11
feintruled wrote: post #3

Amusing, but facetious. The border problem as stated is indeed impossible to solve, but both Brexiter and EU strategy hinges up the idea that the other side will blink first, the EU betting that the Tories will fudge up a sea border, and the Brexiters that the EU will plump for any deal to avoid a no deal (as that would definitely have a hard border).

Problem with the Tories not blinking is that they don't have a majority in parliament. They're currently being propped up (they have a confidence and supply arrangement) by the DUP who are very much against a sea border and would likely vote against a deal that had a sea border and doing so could bring down the government.

Ultimately there is no majority in parliament for any of the options, we are headed for either another election or a re-run of the referendum.
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