China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling • Hacker News Board

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#281

Post by snaky » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:33 AM UTC

notabot wrote: post #279

teknologist wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US will have to bootstrap a lot of manufacturing to replace Chinese labor. Just abandon the H1B program and make it easier for foreign labour to come in to do the work. Problem solved.

Last time I checked Trump wasn't exactly a fan of immigrants either.

That's especially acute considering China is more and more opening to foreign labour - despite the fact there is no path to Chinese citizenship for foreigners, well, except Nobel prize and Olympic gold winners.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#282

Post by ElBarto » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:35 AM UTC

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #134

ElBarto wrote: post #97

Time is on China's side. The US can throw a tantrum all they want. They should play a long game. There is no benefit for them in retaliating to hurt the US as long as it does not cause issues in domestic politics. They should focus on not getting hurt too much and let time do the rest.

I would argue time is (and always has been) on US's side. US has the more powerful economy, and the consumer market that China desperately needs to keep afloat. In addition, time will allow US companies to move its supply lines out of China without triggering volatility in its stock prices.

China is approx. the same size as the USA but with 4 times the population.

The US have the more powerful economy today. But given the above, once China is on a development path then it is simply inevitable that it will overtake the US.

When I say 'time' I'm not looking at the next quarter or next year. That's shortsighted. I'm looking at 20, 50, 100 years.

In fact, I would argue that the US government knows that and that's why they are increasingly alarmed.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#283

Post by gonvaled » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:35 AM UTC

wahern wrote: post #198

394549 wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every president has declared the ICJ irrelevant. The Pentagon would send tanks to the White House if a President so much as hinted at accepting ICJ jurisdiction. Are you seriously claiming there would be a military coup in the US over something like that? The US has very strong taboos against military intervention in politics, much stronger than exist in many other countries. That you would make such a claim calls…

I made a hyperbolic statement to emphasis that it's not politically viable. No, I don't think there'd be a coup. But I also think acceptance of ICC jurisdiction in the near future is about as likely as there being a coup. The military institutionally--the people that embody the military at the Pentagon, in Congress, in the White House, and elsewhere--would never allow it even if a majority of Americans were okay with…

Agree. I hope we also agree that this is extremely unfair, internationally speaking.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#284

Post by int_19h » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:39 AM UTC

bachmeier wrote: post #159

sergiotapia wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course US citizens want a president that looks out for US interests. To think otherwise is laughable and naive. I want the president to fight for us!

Imposing taxes on US consumers is looking out for US interests? That's a strange way of looking at it...

The idea is that it's temporary pain for long-term gain.

Whether that's actually the case is debatable, but people who support those policies genuinely believe so. So you can call them misguided, but not irrational or inconsistent.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#285

Post by int_19h » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:43 AM UTC

07d046 wrote: post #135

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #128

This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…

I have no idea how likely that is, but that looks like an ideal scenario for the White House, and a possible existential threat for the Chinese Communist Party. People have a habit of putting up with a lot when the economy is growing dramatically and their lives are noticeably improving, but they might not be so happy with an increasingly oppressive government and a struggling economy that isn't giving any sign of fu…

Thing is, an oppressive government can deal with more discontent from the citizenry than a democracy like US. So it's not just a question of relative GDP and balances etc - purely economic issues - it's also a question of who is more resilient politically. I'm not so sure US is, if only because politicians have to chase votes, and even relatively minor economic pains among important constituencies can blow up very quickly.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#286

Post by tonyedgecombe » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:44 AM UTC

rgbrenner wrote: post #247

mg96226 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything, GP is conservative. If gdp growth stagnates, there's a very real risk that the Chinese housing bubble will collapse and bring down the entire economy with it.

What's the most alarmist position you could take here? Probably cutting off all US trade immediately. But that doesn't result in a recession in China. They're growing at 7%, about the same as exports to the US. From that 7% subtract imports from the US (which would also be cuttoff and replaced by Chinese companies), and imports for export (which don't produce value for China)... and the result is that an end to US-Ch…

I think you need to be skeptical about their 7% growth figure, the reality is probably quite a bit lower.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#287

Post by int_19h » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:45 AM UTC

acomjean wrote: post #219

tambourine_man wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure. Tim Cook seemed to suggest the iPhone couldn’t be manufactured anywhere else.

Tim Cool spoke to that: " "There's a confusion about China. The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I'm not sure what part of China they go to but the truth is China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago. And that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view. The reason is because of the skill, and the quantity of skill in one location and…

If it's truly a skill question alone, US could trivially resolve it by opening the borders to qualified Chinese engineers, until it gets a large enough quantity.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#288

Post by gonvaled » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:45 AM UTC

ElBarto wrote: post #282

joefranklinsrs wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue time is (and always has been) on US's side. US has the more powerful economy, and the consumer market that China desperately needs to keep afloat. In addition, time will allow US companies to move its supply lines out of China without triggering volatility in its stock prices.

China is approx. the same size as the USA but with 4 times the population. The US have the more powerful economy today. But given the above, once China is on a development path then it is simply inevitable that it will overtake the US. When I say 'time' I'm not looking at the next quarter or next year. That's shortsighted. I'm looking at 20, 50, 100 years. In fact, I would argue that the US government knows that and…

Not only that: the trade dispute is also consequence of the rising vulnerability of the US in the capital markets.

Once it is discarded as the "one and only option", once real alternatives emerge, once the US loses its dominance, the US could end up being subjected to the same financial constraints that all countries are used to operate in.

That has the powers that be trying to delay the inevitable.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#289

Post by sonnyblarney » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:47 AM UTC

gonvaled wrote: post #74

Extremely one sided comments, with a US centric view. The world is not the US, and HN readers are not only US citizens, so let me express a different point of view. Assumption: Trump wants fair trade. HN readers want fair trade. What is needed: fair trading rules, fair IP rules, fair capital structures, and a fair currency. Tackling some of the unfair trade practices does not address all those issues. In particular i…

1)

"We will fight this policies, if needed at the personal level, by selectively consuming products according to country of manufacture."

No. Nobody really does this. People mostly just buy stuff. Chinese will continue to be enamoured by iPhones. The only change will be any supply/demand function due to price.

2)

'Fair Trade' is not a relative issue.

If China does not respect foreign IP then nobody should respect China's IP. That would be 'fair'.

If China wants to control and invests in strategic winners then it's only fair that Europe and America do not allow those companies to sell into their economies without a big tariff.

It's also not 'fair' that China pollutes quite a lot, and does not have have basic worker protections. So 'fair' would be if the US and EU imposed tariffs for those externalities as well.

I don't like Trump, I don't think he really understands what he is doing - but effectively it's the right thing: 'fair trade' would ultimately for nations to be on equal terms.

So how about: all Chinese software outside of China is open source and they shouldn't have recourse on IP, and there should be tariffs to offset environmental/worker externalizations, state actors face tariffs, and Chinese purchase of external companies and assets are severely restricted.

That would be 'fair'.

That said, it would probably be in China's long term best interest to improve the IP situation, environmental and safety/worker issues, and to have less dependance on central planning. It's totally fine if China wants to 'make it's own' path, that's natural and positive. But all those things will yield long term benefit.

Trump I don't think is smart enough to put it this way - but the world should see his movements as an opportunity to address core and fundamental trade issues that we are facing, since the 'old order' is not going to work.

I hope that in the end they're able to sit down and work it out because there's plenty of room for compromise and it will be a win-win.

Re: China Once Looked Tough on Trade. Now Its Options Are Dwindling

#290

Post by dogma1138 » Wed, Sep 19, 2018, 7:47 AM UTC

snaky wrote: post #280

jayalpha wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, I can buy many products cheaper in the US than in China. This tells you something. Due to this and fake products I buy clothes (YES, clothes!), shoes and electronic products only in the EU and the US. Edit: Don't get me wrong. I love China. But many people now see only the strength of China. They have a strong culture. But it comes with many weaknesses. They once fell behind western culture. They may fa…

> I can buy many products cheaper in the US than in China Would you list some examples of that products, please?

All “foreign” products even those which are manufactured in China have a foreign goods tax of 25% some have additional taxes beyond that.

China doesn’t want foreign companies selling cheap goods in China so essentially everything needs to be imported even if it’s manufactured down the street from you in China.