241–250 of 385 posts
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I think the US is past being "fair" with China, and I believe this is a very good thing. The Chinese are cheating in every arena with everything they've got, and being fair only plays into their hands.
The US has been cheating, bigger, better and longer. We seem to agree that this is not about fair trade, but that is what Trump is calling the whole thing.
Citation?
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I don’t see how this is an insightful comment. You’ve just provided a different way of saying there’s a winner and a loser. Disenfranchisement !== losing, it’s being denied the ability to have your vote count the same as anyone else’s. Under the electoral college system, 50 voters for candidate A in Wyoming get more influence than 50 voters in California for the same candidate .
> You’ve just provided a different way of saying there’s a winner and a loser. No I haven’t. Let me explain a bit more below. > Disenfranchisement !== losing, it’s being denied the ability to have your vote count the same as anyone else’s. > for the same candidate. Exactly! It’s a vote for the same presidential candidate regardless of whether you live in California or Ohio. Yet a Republican vote in California is mean…
This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…
I think you went way overboard toward the end. Only 37% (and declining) of China's GDP is from trade.. and only Meaning, if all trade between US and China was cut off tomorrow, they would only lose 7% of GDP. So how do you get from that to 5X? Seems like you have a model of the Chinese economy from a decade ago. Fact is, China is much larger now, and much less dependent on trade today. Also keep in mind, a good porti…
If gdp growth stagnates, there's a very real risk that the Chinese housing bubble will collapse and bring down the entire economy with it.
This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…
They will have learned that scaring off foreign investment is not good for their economy long-term. They don't want to squander their potential, I don't think.
Still, they have serious problems to address. Issues the US and the EU and other Asian economies have with them vis a vis their unfair trade practices.
If the EU and other Asian economies join up with the US and form one front on this, they will very likely come correct, if reluctantly.
My opinion is not a popular one but I'll reiterate-China will not overtake US at least for the next 100 years. I think this trade war has been very telling, it showed the underlying fragility of China's boasting as a superpower. All in all, I see USA recovering from the Trump blunder, and I believe that it will come out stronger than ever. If anti-fragile by Taleb holds true, the US Gov is relatively anti-fragile to…
On what metric? By GDP PPP, they've already passed us: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
They are a much larger country. At about 15k gdp per capita, they'll match our gdp... and that's just a solid middle-income country... not exceptional. As they start to exceed that, certainly that economic power will start to show itself globally.
For comparison, Taiwan and South Korea are at ~$30k. That would result in a gdp 2x as large as the US (about 40T).
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> Once China is not part of the trade flow between US and X country (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, etc), the total trade for China will fall even more than 18%. If those are actually further up the value chain leading to exports to the US (as you seem to suggest), those would largely be imported goods. Edit: Moot point really. Those would just be a consequence of manufacturing happening in China. It's better to have a…
>The main selling point of the EU is that it is literally a single market. The EU is legally a single market, but culturaly and linguistically it's not.
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I think you went way overboard toward the end. Only 37% (and declining) of China's GDP is from trade.. and only Meaning, if all trade between US and China was cut off tomorrow, they would only lose 7% of GDP. So how do you get from that to 5X? Seems like you have a model of the Chinese economy from a decade ago. Fact is, China is much larger now, and much less dependent on trade today. Also keep in mind, a good porti…
If anything, GP is conservative. If gdp growth stagnates, there's a very real risk that the Chinese housing bubble will collapse and bring down the entire economy with it.
But that doesn't result in a recession in China. They're growing at 7%, about the same as exports to the US. From that 7% subtract imports from the US (which would also be cuttoff and replaced by Chinese companies), and imports for export (which don't produce value for China)... and the result is that an end to US-China trade does not produce a recession for China.. they would still be growing by a few percent (note, the US economy only grows at 2-3%).
So they'll still have a growing economy... and they're still moving people from the rural areas into cities. So it's not clear to me that this collapses the housing bubble there. Possible though? Sure, maybe.
This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…
I think you went way overboard toward the end. Only 37% (and declining) of China's GDP is from trade.. and only Meaning, if all trade between US and China was cut off tomorrow, they would only lose 7% of GDP. So how do you get from that to 5X? Seems like you have a model of the Chinese economy from a decade ago. Fact is, China is much larger now, and much less dependent on trade today. Also keep in mind, a good porti…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If your running a trade deficit how exactly are you shooting yourself in the foot?
A trade deficit means we ship portraits of George out instead of goods that are more useful. I've got a big trade deficit with my barber.
This actually looks like the start of the disentanglement between the US economy and the Chinese economy. What will likely happens next (my best guess) is 1.) 40-60 percent of a company’s supply chain moves out of China 2.) China restricting the movement of capital/equipments out of China (similar to what happened with Korean companies last year) 3.) China growing homebrew competitors to the foreign companies leaving…
China will try to avoid this extreme scenario lest they end up like Russia --at least Russia has natural resources to export, if nothing else. They will have learned that scaring off foreign investment is not good for their economy long-term. They don't want to squander their potential, I don't think. Still, they have serious problems to address. Issues the US and the EU and other Asian economies have with them vis a…
The whole concept of US/EU/SEA countries should all team up against China is also laughable. Just look at EU, for Internet companies, mobile and AI, EU lost almost everything to the US dominance, EURUSD dropped 35% from its peak 10 years ago. You seriously believe EU has the interest to further strengthen the US?