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Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

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Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#351

Post by cowmix »

ben_w wrote: post #278
codeulike wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity is already everywhere, you just need to install lots of boxes with charge cables and billing mechanisms. Not that hard.

Although electricity is already everywhere, it’s still not going to be an easy transition. Globally, electricity production in 2012 was somewhere around 20 PWh/year, while transport used around 30 PWh/years. I’m optimistic about cheap solar — a one or two meter wide strip of PV next to every interstate, highway, motorway, Autobahn etc. should suffice — but it’s still not trivial. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_e…

It takes, conservatively, 6.5kwh of power to refine 1 gal of gas. My Volt travels around 27 miles on that much electric power.

Basically, if you stop refining gas you'll have pretty much enough power for all EVs.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#352

Post by bodas »

roel_v wrote: post #330
jacquesm wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They’re not useful for taking kids to school, Where I live a few hundred thousand kids are taken to school by bike every day. All the way up to age 10 or so it's pretty common to see parents with kids on the back (and sometimes on the front or both) of their bikes. https://www.24baby.nl/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/mamafiets.j...

No sane person would do so in any country that doesn't have the bicycle infrastructure we have in the Netherlands. I live in Australia and/or New Zealand a few months out of the year, and I've taken my kids to school there - it's insane to do so on a bike. And this was in places that actually have bike infrastructure and bike activism! Dutch people need to try cycling somewhere else before claiming that bikes are a c…

My parents must not have been sane! London doesn't have the best bicycle infrastructure (it certainly didn't when I was a kid) but you still see parents riding with their kids. Although nowadays you tend to see parents on kick scooters hurtling down the pavement.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#353

Post by tjoff »

dzdt wrote: post #340
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

"I live in an apartment, I can't charge one on the street." The electric car revolution is going to come at the same time as the self-driving revolution. That will change the calculus of parking significantly. No longer does your car need to be parked right next to your building to be convenient: it can be anywhere a short drive away and summoned at the touch of a button. So charging infrastructure doesn't have to be…

That's either a very pessimistic view of electric car progress or a very optimistic view of self-driving capabilities.

I think electric car revolution will be at least two decades earlier than self-driving.

As far as electric goes we are starting to reap benefits of vast investment in better tech, manufacturing and vehicles purpose built for it.

Self-driving is very far away and the best publicly available systems only do slightly more than lane-assist, the by far simplest part of self-driving.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#354

Post by your-nanny »

londons_explore wrote: post #335
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

The only real benefit of electric cars is more environmentally friendly. Since the environment is a collective problem rather than an individual problem, the transition wouldn't ever happen without government intervention. Hence, I think the moment of inflection is entirely down to government policies, and very little down to consumer desires.

electric cars can have faster acceleration too, btw

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#355

Post by davidgould »

compcoffee wrote: post #333
CalChris wrote: post #3

I'm on my third EV (Leaf, S, M3). Never going back. Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups), I can recommend it on that alone. Tesla is very vertically integrated now (they make their own seats) and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla although the capital investment was quite high. Also, it's fun to drive next to a Viper and throw shade.

> Since the Model 3 is so well built (after some startup hickups) > and so the Model 3 is profitable for Tesla It's hard to imagine someone stating these things seriously. So well built? Go to the Tesla Forums; buyers are being recommended to bring a checklist of defects to look for before you agree to take ownership, and are routinely rejecting delivery. That is unfathomable in the auto industry, unless you're talki…

> Viper, that is a full second faster than Performance Model 3 0-60

According to [0] the Viper is pretty much dead even with the Model 3 Performance. Where did you find "a full second"? Also, please provide a source for the "brakes 50% faster 60-0" as this is difficult to believe.

[0] https://www.0-60specs.com/dodge-viper-0-60-times/

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#356

Post by your-nanny »

davedx wrote: post #349
sixstringbudha wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are so many obvious benefits of electric cars, as soon as they are close to cost competitive. Like what exactly? You will have to assume that I am a modern man who don't give two shits about the environment, when deciding to buy a car. So can you give me one significant advantage that an electric car will give me over an ICE car, right now?

* Acceleration * No gears - acceleration is linear * No chance of diesel fumes in your cabin (like with my VW Sharan) * Lots of tax rebates, subsidies, depending on where you live * Charge at home * More room! (No bulky drivetrain) * Less maintenance, less things to go wrong * Lower fuel costs * Simpler to own and drive

I agree with the list except the one about fuel costs. that might be true today, but price will probably have to rise too meet increased demand.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#357

Post by davidgould »

Tuxer wrote: post #196
whatever1 wrote: post #188

Try to sell a 5 year old vehicle of let’s say 35k original price when it needs an $10k repair to get a new battery and dump the half tone of environmentally friendly junk. More importantly, convince the truck drivers with 150k miles per year that they will have to dispose their truck ever 2-3 years (1000 charges). Electric vehicles will take over when a battery breakthrough occurs, one that affects recharge time, wei…

The first model Ss that have hit 10 years and 200k miles have shown an average of 3% battery capacity decrease. Car batteries aren't phone batteries :)

Has it really been 10 years since the Model S came out? ..., well, maybe a very short 10 years - the Model S came out in 2012.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#358

Post by [deleted] »

your-nanny wrote: post #356
davedx wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Acceleration * No gears - acceleration is linear * No chance of diesel fumes in your cabin (like with my VW Sharan) * Lots of tax rebates, subsidies, depending on where you live * Charge at home * More room! (No bulky drivetrain) * Less maintenance, less things to go wrong * Lower fuel costs * Simpler to own and drive

I agree with the list except the one about fuel costs. that might be true today, but price will probably have to rise too meet increased demand.

[deleted]

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#359

Post by cyrildorsaz »

your-nanny wrote: post #356
davedx wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* Acceleration * No gears - acceleration is linear * No chance of diesel fumes in your cabin (like with my VW Sharan) * Lots of tax rebates, subsidies, depending on where you live * Charge at home * More room! (No bulky drivetrain) * Less maintenance, less things to go wrong * Lower fuel costs * Simpler to own and drive

I agree with the list except the one about fuel costs. that might be true today, but price will probably have to rise too meet increased demand.

The opposite will actually happen. The rise of renewable energies will decrease energy cost dramatically. In some countries solar generation is already cheaper .

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#360

Post by hutzlibu »

As soon as there is a critical mass of electric cars, that the first citys can dare to declare the (inner) city to be gasoline free - then I think the turning point is reached.

Can't wait for it. I just returned from the wilderness to the city ... what a huge improvement of city life it would be if the noise and smell of cars would be gone ...

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