Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 450 posts

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#221

Post by whatever1 »

nerdface wrote: post #192
whatever1 wrote: post #188

Try to sell a 5 year old vehicle of let’s say 35k original price when it needs an $10k repair to get a new battery and dump the half tone of environmentally friendly junk. More importantly, convince the truck drivers with 150k miles per year that they will have to dispose their truck ever 2-3 years (1000 charges). Electric vehicles will take over when a battery breakthrough occurs, one that affects recharge time, wei…

I think once we get hot-swappable batteries then it'll really kick start the industry. The only problem is Li-Ion isn't recyclable or easily disposable.

Yes I really wonder why Tesla did not pitch this, specially for their truck offering. I think it would be technically feasible to replace the battery within 5’ if the drivetrain was designed from the ground up having this in mind. The “charging” facilities would be more expensive than the superchargers, but still...

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#222

Post by FullyFunctional »

jimmaswell wrote: post #14
cowmix wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Range more than charging times. With EVs (and if you have a charger) waking up with a 'full tank' is pretty amazing... something ICE auto can never experience.

And an electric car owner won't experience being low on charge and filling up in less than one minute, unless battery swapping schemes come to fruition. Dealbreaker to me being stuck charging for hours (or even overnight if I only have 110) if the batteries are low.

The feeling is called "range anxiety" and is a very common and well understood phenomenon with people who don't actually own an EV or have just had it for a short time. In reality it's almost a non-issue, especially if you have a car with a battery large enough.

In ~ 6 years, I've only had one incident that comes close (a road was closed and I didn't have the range for the detour, so I had to drive to a super charger).

The truth is that, yes, you have to plan slightly more perhaps, but I'll happily pay for all the other benefits (not least is never having to go to a sketchy gas station).

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#223

Post by FullyFunctional »

whatever1 wrote: post #217
FullyFunctional wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AND, that used battery is highly valuable still (useful for power walls). That line of argument is pure unconcealed FUD.

Why then the manufacturers don’t just buy them back and give you the new one for peanuts ?

They do buy them back, but the new one isn't peanuts [EDIT: I don't exactly know the current cost of a new battery]. Also: it's not a sudden cliff, but a gradual degradation and 10 years is very conservative. BTW: I have read that there is a big demand for used Tesla batteries from a sizable DIY powerwall crowd.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#224

Post by parkersweb »

BurningFrog wrote: post #178
gambiting wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So my local council doesn't even have the money to stay on top of fixing potholes and uneven streets , but will somehow find the money and will to put electric charging points everywhere? Yeah, I don't see that happening.

They have money. They just don't care about potholes and uneven streets.

Sadly not true - father was a civil engineer in council highways dept before he retired. For years he had been saying that funding was so small they were having to patch roads where they should have been renewing the road bed. Now they can't even afford to do all roads. It might be a problem of funding allocation of course - but it wasn't a lack of desire.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#225

Post by FullyFunctional »

whatever1 wrote: post #221
nerdface wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think once we get hot-swappable batteries then it'll really kick start the industry. The only problem is Li-Ion isn't recyclable or easily disposable.

Yes I really wonder why Tesla did not pitch this, specially for their truck offering. I think it would be technically feasible to replace the battery within 5’ if the drivetrain was designed from the ground up having this in mind. The “charging” facilities would be more expensive than the superchargers, but still...

Because they actually tried it and the demand was not there. They had a battery swap station in LA.

I posit that the people enthusiastic about battery swaps aren't EV owners [yet]. There are too many practical issues with battery swaps, and larger batteries and superchargers are simply better answers.

Battery swaps will never be a thing.

EDIT: Better Place(TM) were pushing this very concept and had a LARGE presence in pilot countries, including Denmark. They flopped.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#226

Post by GW150914 »

gbear605 wrote: post #140
GW150914 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of digital cameras, the driving forces were varied, from governments wanting better means to spy and drop bombs, the film industry looking for a replacement tech, dedicated hobbyists seeing the benefits and getting on board. I can think of two parallels in electric vehicles, namely high performance applications which love the insane torque, low center of gravity, and diminished complexity compared to some…

Another driving force, perhaps the biggest driving force, is ecological. A very significant fraction of people today would, all else equal, choose electric cars over gasoline for the benefit to the environment. And all else is gradually becoming more equal. As you implied, the biggest remaining hurdle is the battery size. But for many people, it’s already good enough, and for many of the rest it will probably be shor…

We’re not in this position because most people give a real crap about the ecological impact of their actions. They want to make a difference only when it doesn’t entail giving anything up. If you think that enough people will buy into electric cars for high minded reasons to make a difference, just how do you think we got into this situation to begin with? Do you really think the average American, Russian, Chinese or African person cares more about their environmental impact, or a cheap, fast, car? The evidence strongly points one way. People won’t even stop flushing wet wipes because it’s mildly inconvent for fuck’s sake.

Until the average electric car is at least as useful and no more expensive than the average ICE car there is no contest. That might be a good argument for imposing the cost of the externalities of ICE on people, but without that, dream on. “Good enough” isn’t what a “significant” fraction of people today give a shit about, unless they’re paying less for it.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#227

Post by GW150914 »

soperj wrote: post #191
GW150914 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have been saying that for a very long time, and every decade or two someone bets real money and loses horribly. I think the last time was Kamen thinking the Segway would change human transportation forever. Such visionaries tend to conveniently forget people who have families with kids, the price, and the fact that if their device can’t totally replace a car then it’s just an added expense many can’t afford.

And yet tons of people do it in europe with kids because the infrastructure exists.

You mean the rich, temperate parts of Western Europe, most of which could fit inside Texas? Sure. If you’re being more honest it’s the urban areas of the richer, temperate parts of Weatern Europe, which is an even smaller geographic area with a total population that’s less than the US, or about 1/5th of China or India.

I love cycling in Paris and Amsterdam, not so much in New York City in the winter. I also wouldn’t love to do weekly shopping for a family of 4+ using a Segway and public transportation.

Edit: I’m curious if those downvotes represent disagreement, or just distaste.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#228

Post by zeta0134 »

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #74
zizee wrote: post #45

I think that electric car adoption is going to have similar characteristics to digital cameras. I remember playing with an early digital camera and seeing a poor replacement for film, but with obvious benefits. Back then it was common to hear "serious" photographers pooh-poohing digital, and how it's many drawbacks would mean it would remain niche, and never replace film. It didn't take long and digial cameras improv…

> "I live in an apartment, I can't charge one, on the street" I agree with pretty much everything you said, but I still can't fathom how electric cars are going to make more than a dent in NYC where most cars are stored streetside.

It's been quite a while since I visited NYC so forgive me if my memories are outdated, but when I was there, parking meters were commonplace along the roads. Would it not at least make sense to slowly replace those with combination parking meter + charging station, which might be easier for the city to monetize in the long run? I realize this doesn't solve the home-side storage problem, but it might be one way the infrastructure could move forward in common hubs.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#229

Post by whatever1 »

FullyFunctional wrote: post #225
whatever1 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I really wonder why Tesla did not pitch this, specially for their truck offering. I think it would be technically feasible to replace the battery within 5’ if the drivetrain was designed from the ground up having this in mind. The “charging” facilities would be more expensive than the superchargers, but still...

Because they actually tried it and the demand was not there. They had a battery swap station in LA. I posit that the people enthusiastic about battery swaps aren't EV owners [yet]. There are too many practical issues with battery swaps, and larger batteries and superchargers are simply better answers. Battery swaps will never be a thing. EDIT: Better Place(TM) were pushing this very concept and had a LARGE presence i…

Most importantly it transfers the liability for the battery health from the user to the manufacturer which would be a huge pro-ev argument for commercial purpose vehicles.

Re: Electric Vehicles’ Day Will Come, and It Might Come Suddenly

#230

Post by _ph_ »

Entangled wrote: post #60

Wake me up when I can get an electric two-seater like this [1] or this [2] for under ten grand. No A/C, no windows, no nothing, just a cool buggy to run errands and cruise all day in sunny Florida. https://i.imgur.com/gQDPqOn.jpg https://i.imgur.com/tCXxiRm.jpg

The Renault Twizy has been on the market for some years now and sets two persons. Its under 10 grand.
Post reply on HN